集成母排行业引领者，受益于新能源行业发展浪潮。公司主要产品包括电池连接系统和复合母排，广泛应用于新能源汽车、电化学储能、轨道交通、工业变频、新能源发电等领域。根据中汽协新能源汽车产量数据测算，1H23 公司电池连接系统产品国内市占率~14.9%，电控母排产品国内市占率~30.7%。往后看，新能源领域电池连接系统市场空间广阔，我们测算全球动力、储能电池连接系统市场空间5 年CAGR 分别为24%、21%，我们认为有望带动集成母排需求持续增长。Investment highlights
For the first time, it covered Western Dianeng Xinneng (603312) to outperform the industry. The target price was 35.00 yuan. Based on the P/E relative valuation method, corresponding to 25.4x/18.9x 24/25e P/E, the company is a leader in innovative electrical connectivity technology.
The reasons are as follows:
A leader in the integrated busbar industry, benefiting from the development wave of the new energy industry. The company's main products include battery connection systems and composite busbars, which are widely used in fields such as new energy vehicles, electrochemical energy storage, rail transit, industrial frequency conversion, and new energy power generation. According to the China Automobile Association's NEV production data, 1H23's domestic market share for battery connection system products is ~ 14.9%, and the domestic market share for electronic control bus products is ~ 30.7%. Looking back, the market space for battery connection systems in the new energy sector is vast. We estimate that the global power and energy storage battery connection system market space is 24% and 21% CAGR for 5 years, respectively. We believe it is expected to drive continued growth in demand for integrated busbars.
Technological innovation+equipment customization to continue to consolidate the competitive advantage of products. On the one hand, the company continuously promotes the upgrading and innovation of signal acquisition components and integrated processes for battery connection systems, promotes lightweight and integrated product upgrades, and continuously consolidates its leading position in the industry with excellent product strength. On the other hand, the company has independent design and development capabilities for key equipment such as composite busbar heat press equipment, electrical performance testing, and battery connection systems, which can support continuous process iteration requirements, respond quickly to customer needs, reduce equipment procurement costs, and continuously consolidate the company's core competitiveness.
Connect with top quality customers and consolidate the leading position in the industry. The company has become one of the main suppliers of battery connection systems in the Ningde era, and its revenue contribution increased from 30% in 2020 to 75% in 2023. We believe that the company has established stable cooperative relationships with leading downstream customers, and the basic business market is stable. In addition, the company has expanded high-quality customers such as Tesla, BYD, Farah Electronics, CRRC, Sunshine Power, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Westinghouse Brakes, Rockwell, and Toshiba Mitsubishi. We believe that with the company's continuous product innovation and customer development, the company's market share is expected to continue to increase.
What is our biggest difference from the market? The market is concerned about the slowdown in downstream demand growth and the risk that the industry competition pattern will deteriorate. We believe that the company has product advantages and is expected to help downstream customers reduce weight and costs through continuous product innovation and increase the market share of leading customers; in addition, the company continues to develop new customers for energy storage, which is expected to further open up room for growth.
Potential catalysts: Demand growth in the downstream NEV and energy storage markets exceeded expectations, and new customers were successfully introduced.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We expect the company's 24-25 EPS to be 1.38 yuan, 1.85 yuan, and a CAGR of 23%, respectively. The company currently trades at 19.4/14.5x 24/25e P/E. We gave the company a target price of 35 yuan, corresponding to 25.4/18.9x 24/25e P/E and 30% upward space, which covered the “outperforming industry” rating for the first time.
risks
Risk of major customer dependency, risk of downstream demand falling short of expectations, increased risk of industry competition, and risk of technology route changes.
