Incidents:
On September 1, 2024, Ideal Auto announced delivery data for August 2024. In August 2024, Ideal Auto delivered 48,122 new vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 37.8%.
Delivery of L6 increased significantly after listing, and market share increased significantly
In August 2024, Ideal Auto delivered 0.048 million new vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 37.8%. A total of 0.288 million vehicles were delivered in 2024, up 38.4% year over year. After the launch of the L6, sales volume increased significantly, delivering more than 20,000 units for three consecutive months. After the launch of the L6, Ideal Car's delivery capacity increased significantly. The NEV market share of 0.2 million yuan or more reached 18% in July, and is expected to continue in August. Ideal Auto is expected to deliver 0.145-0.155 million vehicles in Q3, with a cumulative total of 0.099 million vehicles delivered in July and August. It is expected to complete the median delivery forecast in the third quarter, and its market share is expected to increase significantly.
Software functions are accelerated, and OTA6.2 functions have been upgraded
The urban NOA mileage penetration rate of the IDEAL CAR END-TO+VLM system has now exceeded 50%. In the “How to Evaluate the End-to-End Capabilities of Car Companies” report, we believe that Ideal has advantages in computing power and data scale, and will remain ahead in future functions. The lower limit of intelligent driving functions has been significantly improved, and the improvement of AEB and AES functions enhances dual protection capabilities in extreme scenarios. On August 31, the OTA6.2 version further enhanced the Pro version's high-speed NOA capabilities, rear warning, etc., while the Max version's parking capacity and AEB capabilities were significantly enhanced. Ideal cars may maintain high R&D investment in the future. High-quality and intelligent functions have increased the company's user satisfaction, and the NPS value reached a new high during the year.
Intelligent electric strategy accelerates, ecosystem construction accelerates
The ecology has gradually improved. As of August 31, 2024, Ideal Auto has 481 retail centers across the country, covering 145 cities; 423 after-sales maintenance centers and authorized sheet spray centers, covering 220 cities. Ideal Auto has put into use 748 ideal overcharging stations across the country, and has 3506 charging stations.
Product strength leads smart driving upgrades, profit margins have reached an inflection point
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 147.3/205.4/280 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.0%/39.4%/36.3%, net profit to mother of 8.53/14.24/23.72 billion yuan, year-on-year growth rates of -27.1%/67.0%/66.6%, EPS 4.02/6.71/11.18 yuan/share, respectively, and a 3-year CAGR of 40.6%.
The company's product strength has been improved, intelligent electric acceleration, sales volume and profitability have been realized. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The speed of intelligent implementation and ability to deliver sales falls short of expectations, and the passenger car price war may affect subsequent sales.