产业链价格大幅回落，存货减值计提影响公司业绩。面对行业调整期价格的剧烈波动，公司积极调整产销节奏。2024 年上半年，公司实现硅片出货量44.44GW（对外销售21.96GW）；电池对外销售2.66GW；组件出货量31.34GW，其中亚太区域销量同比大幅增长超140%。受产业链价格持续大幅下降和存货减值计提影响，公司上半年出现大幅亏损，2024H1 公司计提资产减值损失57.84 亿元，其中存货跌价损失48.70 亿元，机器设备等固定资产减值损失8.55亿元，公司业绩短期承压。Matters:
The company released its 2024 semi-annual report. 2024H1 achieved revenue of 38.529 billion yuan, or -40.41% year over year; net profit to mother - 5.243 billion yuan, -157.13% year over year; gross profit margin 7.66%, -11.43 pct year on year; net profit margin - 13.61%, year-on-year - 27.81 pct. Among them, the 2024Q2 company achieved revenue of 20.855 billion yuan, -42.6% YoY, +18.00%; net profit to mother -2.893 billion yuan, -152.21% YoY increase, gross profit margin 6.61%, -13.39pct YoY, -2.28pct month-on-month; net profit margin -13.87%, YoY -29.12pct, q-0.57pct month-on-month.
Commentary:
Prices in the industrial chain fell sharply, and inventory impairment accruals affected the company's performance. Faced with sharp price fluctuations during the industry adjustment period, the company actively adjusted the pace of production and marketing. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved 44.44 GW of silicon wafers (21.96 GW of external sales); 2.66 GW of external battery sales; and 31.34 GW of modules, with sales in the Asia-Pacific region increasing significantly by more than 140% year on year. Affected by the continuous sharp drop in industrial chain prices and inventory impairment, the company experienced large losses in the first half of the year. 2024H1 calculated an asset impairment loss of 5.784 billion yuan, including 4.87 billion yuan in inventory depreciation and 0.855 billion yuan in fixed asset impairment losses such as machinery and equipment, etc., putting pressure on the company's performance in the short term.
To accelerate the industrialization of BC technology, HPBC 2.0 is worth looking forward to. Competition in the industry is fierce, and the company lays out differentiated competition for BC products. In September 2023, the company proposed that it will make every effort to develop BC technology to continuously set world records for crystalline silicon battery conversion efficiency based on BC technology. Currently, the battery efficiency of the HPBC 2.0 mass production line has reached 26.6%. Based on high-efficiency HPBC 2.0 battery technology, the company launched Hi-Mo 9, a double-sided component product for the centralized market. The mass production power of the module is up to 660W, which is more than 30W higher than TopCon components of the same specification. The module conversion efficiency is 24.43%, the double-sided ratio exceeds 70%, and the resistance to cracking is 80% higher, leading the industry in performance. The company expects HPBC 2.0 products to be launched on a large scale by the end of 2024. By the end of 2025, the company's BC battery production capacity will reach 70 GW (of which HPBC 2.0 production capacity is about 50 GW), and plans to migrate all domestic battery bases to BC products by the end of 2026.
A breakthrough was made in the expansion of the North American market, and the US component production capacity was officially put into operation. The company has enhanced global capabilities around a supply chain traceability management system, green and sustainable procurement, and localized operation. It has achieved smooth customs clearance of shipments in North America. The US 5GW component factory has officially been put into operation, forming strong support for business development in the North American region. In the first half of 2024, Leye PV of the United States achieved revenue of 1.914 billion yuan, net profit of 0.759 billion yuan, and a net profit margin of 39.63%.
Investment advice: The company is a leader in silicon wafers and components, and lays out BC's differentiated development. Considering the impact of a sharp drop in prices and depreciation in the industrial chain, we adjusted the profit forecast. The company's 2024-2026 net profit is estimated to be -5.631/5.077/7.24 billion yuan (previous value 4.04/7.523/9.491 billion yuan), respectively, and PE corresponding to the current market value is -19/21/14 times, respectively. Referring to comparable company valuations and historical company valuations, the 2025 25x PE was given, corresponding to a target price of 16.75 yuan, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk factors: Terminal demand falls short of expectations, capacity expansion progress falls short of expectations, market competition intensifies, etc.
