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Federal Reserve's Guo Ershabi: Economic data support multiple interest rate cuts.
Federal Reserve's Guerbis: Economic data supports multiple interest rate cuts; sees more warning signals about the labor market.
On the eve of the release of the US key employment report, small non-farm jobs hit a low not seen since January 2021, while initial claims remained steady.
On the eve of Friday's "key non-farm night," Thursday's earlier release of the ADP employment report (commonly known as "small non-farm") and initial claims data added some confidence to the "rate cut camp." The US ADP employment report in August added 0.099 million jobs, the lowest since January 2021; initial claims data remained steady, with non-seasonally adjusted data falling to the lowest level in nearly 10 months.
Yellen: The US labor market remains robust and continues to create job opportunities.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that despite this week's data indicating a weakening labor market, the US labor market remains robust. Yellen told reporters on Thursday, "My judgment is that we have a good and healthy labor market, and we continue to create job opportunities." Before Yellen made the above statement, several new data points indicated a softening labor market outlook, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates during this period.
Federal Reserve, don't delay! Morgan Stanley economists change their attitude: September must have major actions.
J.P. Morgan's chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, recently stated that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting. Feroli said in an interview with the media, "We believe they should quickly return to a neutral interest rate." He added that the peak of the central bank's neutral interest rate is about 4%, which is 150 basis points lower than the current level, so there is "sufficient reason" to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts.
Legendary election prophet predicts: Harris will defeat Trump.
Alan Lichtman, a professor at American University known as the "election prophet," has almost accurately predicted the winner of every U.S. presidential election in the past forty years. As the 2024 U.S. presidential election enters a critical stage, he has made a new prediction: Harris will take office in the White House. On Thursday, Eastern Time, Lichtman released a comment saying, "The Democrats will continue to hold the White House, and Kamala Harris will be the next U.S. President. This is my prediction for this election."
J.P. Morgan increases its long yen position, expecting weak U.S. non-farm data to prompt a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
JPMorgan is increasing its long positions in the Japanese yen as it believes that Friday's US nonfarm payroll data will be disappointing, thus paving the way for a 50 basis points interest rate cut by the Fed this month. JPMorgan strategists James Nelligan and Patrick Locke wrote in a research report on September 5 that the anticipated outcome gives them confidence to further support the positioning of defensive financing currencies. Defensive financing currencies can derive support from the downward economic growth and yields.
International oil prices fall below the alarm line! OPEC+ official announcement delays the current production reduction scale for another two months.
On Thursday, September 5th, local time, OPEC announced on its official website that the eight countries participating in the "voluntary production cut measures" have agreed to extend the plan for an additional two months until the end of November 2024. The press release also included a timetable for gradually restoring production starting in December, stating that the reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day under the new plan will be cancelled from December 1st. However, OPEC added that participating countries can suspend or revoke these production adjustments as needed.
Gamestop's surge has dramatically narrowed, with the trading platform considering unplugging the internet of US retail investors.
The three major indexes showed mixed movements, with China concept stocks outperforming the large cap, and Nio Inc. skyrocketing 14%.
On Thursday, the three major US stock indexes closed with mixed movements, with the S&P 500 index having fallen for three consecutive days. As of the close, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 0.25%, the S&P 500 Index fell by 0.30%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.54%.
Most large-cap technology stocks closed higher, with Tesla rising by 4.90%, Amazon by 2.63%, Nvidia by 0.94%, Apple by 0.69%, Google C by 0.50%, Meta Platforms by 0.80%, and Microsoft by -0.12%.
Popular China concept stocks mostly trended higher, with Nio Inc. surging 14.39%, Xpeng rising 4.74%, New Oriental rising 1.98%, TAL Education rising 1.52%, Baidu rising 0.52%, Li Auto Inc. rising 0.48%, Alibaba falling 0.05%, and PDD Holdings falling 0.08%.
Musk's big move is coming, tesla announces the road map for FSD to enter China and Europe next year.
Tesla's AI team announced that they will launch the FSD system in China and Europe in the first quarter of next year, pending regulatory approval. Tesla officials in China confirmed the news and are currently awaiting approval from regulatory authorities. Analysts believe that obtaining approval in China will be easier than in Europe, given the collaboration between Tesla and Baidu.
At the close,$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Up nearly 5%.
Bank of America: Nvidia now has an attractive buying opportunity.
Bank of America said that although$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Short-term lack of positive catalysts for the stock price, but with enterprise customers using Nvidia chips including the Hopper and Blackwell series to build AI functionality, the stock price is expected to be supported in the coming years. Bank of America reiterated that Nvidia is the preferred stock in the industry and gave the stock a buy rating with a target price of $165. This target price implies that Bank of America expects Nvidia's stock price to rise by about 55% from Wednesday's closing price.
Bank of America: The upcoming iPhone event is expected to drive Apple's stock price higher.
Bank of America stated that$Apple (AAPL.US)$The upcoming iPhone launch event may serve as a positive catalyst for the stock, with a potential price reaction deviating from its typical historical performance. Analyst Wamsi Mohan wrote, 'In past launch events, Apple's stock price would dip after the event and only rebound 30-60 days later,' but 'if Apple showcases compelling Apple Intelligence or third-party integration features, or if Apple raises prices, the stock price performance may outperform previous events.'
Closing up more than 14%, NIO set new highs in revenue and delivery volume in the second quarter.
NIO's second-quarter revenue reached 17.45 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 98.9% and a QoQ increase of 76.1%. The delivery volume was 0.0574 million vehicles, a YoY increase of 143.9% and a QoQ increase of 90.9%. The gross margin of the vehicles was 12.2%, a YoY increase of 6 percentage points and a QoQ increase of 3 percentage points. Research and development expenses were 3.22 billion yuan, cash reserves amounted to 41.6 billion yuan, and losses narrowed significantly by 16.7% YoY.
At the close,$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$Rises more than 14%.
USA telecommunications operator Verizon plans to acquire Frontier for 20 billion dollars.
American broadband and telecommunication service providers$Verizon (VZ.US)$Indicates intention to acquire$Frontier Communications (FYBR.US)$In order to expand its fiber-optic network, this will be a $20 billion all-cash transaction. Verizon's acquisition offer is $38.50 per share, 37.3% higher than Frontier's closing price on September 3 (the day before the potential acquisition report was exposed). The acquisition is expected to be completed within 18 months.
After-hours, Broadcom fell more than 6%, with the fourth quarter revenue outlook falling short of expectations.
Broadcom's third quarter net revenue was $13.07 billion, slightly exceeding analysts' expectations of $13.03 billion. The third quarter semiconductor solutions revenue was $7.27 billion, below analysts' expectations of $7.41 billion. The fourth quarter revenue is expected to be $14 billion, below analysts' expectations of $14.13 billion. The projected annual revenue from AI is $12 billion.
As of press time,$Broadcom (AVGO.US)$After-hours trading fell by more than 6%.
It is reported that intel plans to sell its stake in Mobileye and explore strategic options for its business.
According to sources, $Intel (INTC.US)$Is considering selling its struggling autonomous driving system supplier.$Mobileye Global (MBLY.US)$Shares as part of a major strategic adjustment. According to sources, the chip manufacturer may sell a portion of its 88% stake in Mobileye on the public market or through a sale to a third party. One source said that Mobileye will hold a board meeting in New York later this month to review Intel's plans.
After-hours trading slightly increased by 0.83%. Docusign raised its full-year revenue forecast.
Electronic signature solution provider Docusign reported a revenue of 0.736 billion US dollars in the second quarter, surpassing analysts' expectations of 0.7279 billion US dollars. The second quarter subscription revenue was 0.7174 billion US dollars, exceeding analysts' expectations of 0.7067 billion US dollars. The projected full-year revenue is 2.94 billion to 0.295 billion US dollars, originally expected by the company to be 2.92 billion to 2.93 billion US dollars. The projected third quarter revenue is 0.743 billion to 0.747 billion US dollars, with analysts' expectations at 0.7396 billion US dollars.
As of press time,$DocuSign (DOCU.US)$After-hours trading increased by 0.83%.
After-hours trading increased by more than 10%, Uipath's second-quarter report and full-year performance guidance were better than expected.
Uipath's second-quarter overall revenue was $0.3163 billion, analyst expectations were $0.3039 billion. Second-quarter annualized revenue was $1.55 billion, in line with analyst expectations. An additional $0.5 billion stock buyback is planned. The full-year revenue is expected to be $1.42 billion to $1.43 billion, analyst expectations are $1.41 billion. The third-quarter revenue is expected to be $0.345 billion to $0.35 billion, analyst expectations are $0.3472 billion.
As of press time,$UiPath (PATH.US)$Rose more than 10%.
Applied Digital surged over 65%, obtaining $0.16 billion in financing from investors including Nvidia.
As of the close, the data center operator$Applied Digital (APLD.US)$Surged over 65%, reaching the highest level in over a month. On the news front, Applied Digital announced that it would receive $0.16 billion in financing from a group of investors including Nvidia. The investors in this deal also include the private real estate company, Related Companies. Applied Digital designs and operates data centers, providing digital infrastructure solutions primarily for enterprises looking to adopt generative AI technology.
OpenAI's commercial subscribers have exceeded 1 million, with stunning rumors of a price hike for the new model.
OpenAI stated on Thursday that the number of paid users for the enterprise version of ChatGPT subscription service, launched a year ago, has now exceeded 1 million. This includes the Enterprise service for medium and large enterprises, Team subscriptions for small teams, and ChatGPT Edu products tailored for universities.
If you want to play this game, you must believe in yourself and your judgment.
BeiShui crazily bought China Mobile for nearly HKD 1.8 billion and sold Tencent for about HKD 200 million. On Monday (June 3rd), Southbound funds net purchased HKD 3.4 billion of Hong Kong stocks.
Temasek Holdings aggressively purchased around 0.3 billion Hong Kong dollars of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, bought nearly 0.2 billion Hong Kong dollars of Kuaishou, and sold over 0.3 billion Hong Kong dollars of Sinopec.
On September 5th (Thursday), the net southbound capital sold 1.59 billion Hong Kong dollars worth of Hong Kong stocks.
$ICBC (01398.HK)$N/A.$KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$,$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$Received net buy of HKD 0.25 billion, HKD 0.173 billion, and HKD 70.94 million respectively.
$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index ETF (03033.HK)$,$SINOPEC CORP (00386.HK)$Net sales of $1.607 billion Hong Kong dollars, $0.832 billion Hong Kong dollars, and $0.324 billion Hong Kong dollars, respectively.
The Hong Kong Stock Exchange may suspend trading for the entire day today.
The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has announced that if Typhoon Signal No. 8 or above, Black Rainstorm Warning, or Extreme Conditions Warning is still in effect at 9 a.m., the securities and derivatives markets will be suspended in the morning. If the warning is still in effect at 12 p.m., the securities and derivatives markets will be suspended for the entire day.
Goldman Sachs is optimistic about Tencent: one of the most promising Chinese internet giants, and has confidence in its management.
Goldman Sachs released a research report on Thursday, stating that although Tencent's mobile advertising network, media advertising, and fintech/commercial payment business were under short-term pressure from the macro environment, the accelerated growth in gaming, video number, wealth management, and SaaS revenue basically offset this impact.
$TENCENT (00700.HK)$It is still one of the most visible and sustainable profit compound growth potential companies among Chinese internet giants, and has confidence in Tencent's management team's clear strategy in various business lines. It maintains a buy rating with a 12-month target price of HKD 464, which has an upward potential of 24.5% compared to the current stock price.
The company's overall sales volume in 2023 was 18,000 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 28.10%, indicating significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan were 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.
Keywords: U.S. non-farm; unemployment rate; williams; warren; credit state-owned enterprise
In terms of financial data, the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment in the U.S. for August and the U.S. unemployment rate for August will be released.
In terms of financial events, FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams will deliver a speech, and Fed director Warren will speak on economic outlook.
In terms of new stocks, $SYNTRUST GK (08629.HK)$ Will be listed on the Hong Kong stock market today.
Futubull Morning News:
Margin of safety: When building a bridge, you insist on a load of 0.03 million pounds, but only allow trucks weighing 0.01 million pounds to shuttle through. The same principle applies to the investment field.
- [US] Buffett
Editor/ping