On the 6th, the Japanese stock market is expected to be conscious of buying back, but active trading is likely to be restrained. In the U.S. market on the 5th, the NY Dow was down 219 points, and the Nasdaq was up 43 points. August ADP employment statistics fell below expectations, leading to concerns about a slowdown in the labor market. Subsequently, the August ISM non-manufacturing business activity index improved, leading to a sluggish decline. The Chicago Nikkei 225 futures settlement price was 37,010 yen, 400 yen higher than Osaka. The yen exchange rate is hovering around 143.40 yen to the dollar.
The Nikkei average stock price is expected to start with a slightly bullish tone, reflecting on the Chicago futures. The Nasdaq index has rebounded slightly after 3 days, and strong buying back movements are expected in the high-tech stocks, which continue to show a weak trend in the index impact. However, with the announcement of the August U.S. employment statistics looming, it is difficult to imagine an active upward trend and is likely to remain within rebalancing movements. In the U.S., a 0.5% interest rate cut is expected at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) due to the slowdown in the labor market. With the exchange rate hovering around 143 yen to the dollar, the strong yen is likely to be a burden.
There were moments in the night session when the Nikkei 225 futures were bought up to 37,120 yen. However, the psychological resistance level of the 25-day moving average at the same level is easily noticed, and even if it surpasses this, it is likely to be capped by the 200-day moving average level. Therefore, in the Nikkei average stock price, there is likely to be conflicting strength and weakness around the vicinity of the 25-day moving average. Therefore, if high-tech stocks that have been in a downturn continue to show signs of a rebound, it is likely that short-term buying for rebound will be easier to come by as a target for investment.
Furthermore, yesterday's Growth 250 Index initially saw selling, but later rebounded slightly. While the index is conscious of the 200-day moving average as a resistance level, the current deviation from the 200-day moving average leaves it open to easier buying for a rebound. Due to the resistance to being influenced by index trading, there is likely to be a shift of individual funds to highly liquid stocks. In addition, the index has hit its high since late February to early March, and adjustments have continued. Many material stocks have hit high values since March, so there is likely to be increased activity in individual stocks after the end of the 6-month credit deadline.