Incidents:
On September 1, 2024, Xiaopeng Motor announced delivery data for August. In August 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 14,036 new cars, up 3% year on year and 26% month on month. From January to August 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 77,209 new vehicles, an increase of 17% over the previous year.
Sales of advantageous models are growing steadily, and new car launches are expected to accelerate
Xiaopeng Motor's delivery capacity is improving steadily, and delivery is expected to reach a new high in September. In August 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 14,036 new cars, up 3% year on year and 26% month on month. The Xiaopeng MONA M03 was launched on August 28. There are three SKUs for the new car, each priced at 0.1198/0.1298/0.1558 million yuan. 48 hours after launch, the Mona M03 delivery began in September. The launch of the new model and the downward price band are expected to deliver the increase in sales.
The smart driving cost reduction route is clear, and the pure visual solution 2024Q4 Xiaopeng Motor's intelligent driving rhythm is clear, and the pace of smart driving cost reduction is clear. Xiaopeng's intelligent driving functions are mainly divided into:
(1) Now, light maps can be used all over the country; (2) At the end of 2024, light radars and light maps will achieve door-to-door intelligent driving; (3) H2 in 2025, infinitely close to L3, 100 km takeover less than 1 time; (4) In 2026, in some low-speed scenarios, people will not drive in the driver's seat. At the same time, Xiaopeng launched an AI Hawkeye vision solution to fully solve problems such as light differences, and is expected to debut on the new model Xiaopeng P7+ in 2024Q4.
Open up the AI industry chain and accelerate the advancement of chip implementation applications
Xiaopeng Motor opens up the AI industry chain and completes the AI chip streaming. The Xiaopeng Turing chip was successfully released on August 23. It is fully oriented to the L4, and is expected to achieve “one top three” with mainstream chips in the industry. On the application side, smart cars, robots, and flying cars will all use Turing chips in the future. Looking at the pace of the application side, second-generation humanoid robots were unveiled on 1024 Science Day, pre-sale of flying cars 2024Q4 began, and AI applications accelerated.
Smart global collaboration upgrade, Xiaopeng is expected to be Nirvana
We expect the company's sales volume in 2024/2025/2026 to be 0.18/0.45/0.67 million vehicles, with corresponding revenue of 43.6/79.3/104.6 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 42%/82%/32%, respectively. Net profit to mother was -5.1/-0.5/2.3 billion yuan, respectively. The new model is about to be launched, and it is expected to reach an inflection point in sales. The iterative catalyst for intelligent driving and the pace of model launch are expected to help the company reverse financial data, cooperate with the public, or further expand the company's revenue and technical capabilities. Continued attention is recommended.
Risk warning: Intelligent and large models are falling short of expectations, and the passenger car price war may affect subsequent sales. The transition from technology to sales fell short of expectations.