盈利预测与投资建议。2024年快递行业需求增长超预期，24Q2韵达业绩持续改善。考虑24年在行业需求在“小包化”影响下，持续中高速超预期增长，尾部经营环境改善，公司综合服务能力的恢复和提升将持续助力公司成本费用端的改善，经营实力持续在利润上兑现，在更新23年及24H1业绩后，由于23年真实业绩和前预测值差异影响下调公司24/25年归母净利至20/23亿元（前值27/36亿元），新增26年归母28亿元，维持“买入”评级。Incident: Yunda Co., Ltd. announced the 2024 semi-annual report. 24H1 achieved operating income of 23.25 billion yuan, up 7.8% year on year; net profit to mother was 1.04 billion yuan, up 19.8% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 0.83 billion yuan, up 5.4% year on year. On a quarterly basis, 24Q1/Q2 achieved operating income of 11.16 billion yuan (up 6.5% year on year) and 12.1 billion yuan (up 9.0% year on year); net profit to mother of 0.41 billion yuan, +15% year over year, 0.63 billion yuan, and +23.2% year on year; net profit after deducting non-attributable net profit of 0.39 billion yuan (up 11.5% year on year) and 0.45 billion yuan (up 0.7% year on year).
The number of pieces increased significantly, and the price decreased year on year. Volume: 2024H1's express delivery business volume was 10.92 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 30.0%, with a market share of 13.6%, ranking third in terms of accessibility. 24Q2's express delivery business volume was 5.98 billion units, up 30.8% year on year. Price: 2024H1 ASP was 2.08 yuan, -15.3% YoY; 24Q2ASP was 2.02 yuan, -12.8% YoY.
Single ticket profits continue to improve quarter by quarter, and single ticket core operating costs continue to be optimized. 24H1 achieved operating income of 23.25 billion yuan, up 7.8% year on year; net profit to mother was 1.04 billion yuan, up 19.8% year on year, net profit from single vote was 0.10 yuan, up -7.9% year on year; net profit without return to mother was 0.83 billion yuan, up 5.4% year on year; net profit without return to mother was 0.08 yuan, up 18.9% year on year. Among them, 24Q2 Company's actual net profit from a single ticket was 0.11 yuan, -5.8% year-on-year; net profit from a single ticket deducted from non-mother was 0.07 yuan, or -23.0% year-on-year. The company's profit changed quarterly. In 2024Q2, the company's core operating costs per ticket fell 24.6% year on year, down 15.3% from the first quarter; the scale of the four expenses decreased by 0.18 billion yuan, down 14% year on year.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. Demand growth in the express delivery industry exceeded expectations in 2024, and 24Q2 Yunda's performance continued to improve. Considering that in 24 years, under the influence of “small packaging”, industry demand continued to exceed expectations, and the recovery and improvement of the company's comprehensive service environment will continue to help improve the cost and cost side of the company, and its operating strength will continue to be realized in terms of profit. After updating the 23-year and 24H1 results, the company's 24/25 net profit to mother was lowered to 2/2.3 billion yuan (previous value 2.7/3.6 billion yuan), adding a 26-year return of 2.8 billion yuan to maintain the “purchase” “Enter” rating.
Risk warning: risk of industry demand recovery falling short of expectations; risk of price war intensification; risk of rising oil prices.
