Hot news
Before the market opens on Thursday, the three major futures prices are mixed.
In terms of economic data, the US August ADP employment increased by 0.099 million, lower than the expected increase of 0.144 million, and the previous value was revised from an increase of 0.122 million to 0.111 million.
The initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 31st were 0.227 million, with an expectation of 0.23 million, and the previous value was revised from 0.231 million to 0.232 million.
Tesla rose nearly 3% pre-market, planning to launch FSD in China and Europe in the first quarter of next year.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Rising nearly 3% pre-market, reporting $225.4. On the news, Tesla AI posted on the social media platform "X" that Tesla plans to launch its advanced driver assistance system called "Full Self Driving" in China and Europe in the first quarter of next year, and is currently awaiting regulatory approval.
Nvidia has fallen 11% in the past two days, and traders are closely watching the key level of $100.
Jay Woods, Global Chief Strategist of Freedom Capital Markets, believes that $100 is $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ The stock price is a key level, which is approximately the level of the lowest closing price last month. Woods said, "I don't want to see the stock hit a new low. If it breaks the low point in August, it will truly indicate that there has been a change at least technically. I believe the stock price will find support around $100 and then consolidate for a period of time."
NIO rose nearly 4% pre-market trading, setting new records for Q2 revenue and deliveries.
$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$ NIO rose nearly 4% pre-market trading. The company's Q2 revenue was 17.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 76.1%. Deliveries reached 0.0574 million units, a year-on-year increase of 143.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 90.9%. The gross margin for vehicles was 12.2%, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3%. Research and development expenses were 3.22 billion yuan, with a cash reserve of 41.6 billion yuan. The year-on-year loss narrowed significantly by 16.7%. NIO also provided the strongest quarterly delivery and revenue guidance in history: the delivery guidance for Q3 is 0.061 million to 0.063 million units, and the revenue guidance for Q3 is 19.11 billion yuan to 19.67 billion yuan, both of which are record highs.
Taiwan Semiconductor rose nearly 1% pre-market trading, expecting to achieve CoW-SoW mass production by 2027.
$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ Taiwan Semiconductor rose nearly 1% pre-market trading, with a price of $162.17. In terms of news, in order to cope with the trend of large-scale chips and the demand for more HBM for AI workloads, Taiwan Semiconductor plans to combine InFO-SoW with SoIC to form CoW-SoW, stacking memory or logic chips on wafers, and is expected to start mass production in 2027.
Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading, and is optimistic about its performance after the financial report.
$Bilibili (BILI.US)$ Pre-market trading rose more than 3%. Bank of America Securities issued a report stating that Bilibili's second quarter performance exceeded expectations, and the steady trend of its gaming and advertising business is expected to continue in the second half of the year. In addition, the company's management is confident in its profitability trend. The bank expects that under the stable trend of gaming and advertising business, the third quarter can achieve a balance of income and expenditure. It also points out that the combination of its gross margin and high-profit business model transformation, as well as cost optimization, will be the key driving forces for the expansion of the company's gross margin.
US Steel rose nearly 2% pre-market trading, clarifying that it has not received the latest news or administrative orders regarding acquisition transactions.
$United States Steel (X.US)$ Rose nearly 2% pre-market trading to $29.95. The stock fell more than 17% yesterday. Earlier, insiders revealed that US President Joe Biden is preparing to block Japan's Nippon Steel's $14.1 billion acquisition of US Steel. US Steel said it has not received any latest news or administrative orders regarding the transaction and is expected to explore all possible options to ensure the completion of the transaction.
Nvidia's put-call ratio is rising! Large investors are buying far-term call options with a strike price of $100.
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Fell nearly 2% yesterday, and the implied volatility continued to rise to 55.42%. The put-call ratio increased from 0.67 to 0.84. Large investors have different directions in their trades, with some selling puts and buying calls to bet on the rise, and some buying puts for hedging protection. The largest options trade yesterday was the purchase of far-term call options with a strike price of $100 expiring on January 16, 2026, involving $6.2 million.
ChatGPT is expected to release the next generation model by the end of the year, which is 100 times more powerful than GPT-4.
At the recent KDDI summit, Tadao Nagasaki, CEO of OpenAI Japan, revealed that the performance of the new generation model, code-named 'GPT-Next' from OpenAI, is expected to be 100 times more powerful than the existing GPT-4 model, and is planned to be released later this year. The improved performance of the GPT-Next model is attributed to its optimized architecture design and improved learning efficiency, rather than relying solely on massive computing resources. He also revealed that the current global workforce of OpenAI is less than 2,000 people, with approximately half dedicated to AI development. OpenAI's main clients include Apple, Coca-Cola, and biotech giant Moderna.
Global macro
A radical interest rate cut speculation is sweeping the financial markets! More and more traders are betting heavily on the Federal Reserve's imminent 50 basis points rate cut.
Options trading tied to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) shows a significant increase in the number of outstanding contracts or positions held by traders in many call contracts expiring on September 13, the five days before the Federal Reserve policy meeting announcement. This reflects that more and more traders are using real money to bet that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points to boost the sluggish labor market and economic growth in the United States. If Friday's non-farm payroll report and next week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data show a cooling of the US labor market and inflation rate enough to prove the rationale for a faster easing policy, then these traders' dovish betting positions will be rewarded.
How hard can some hedge funds work to make a profit on Non-Farm Payroll Day?
To avoid any fluctuations caused by the upcoming US employment data, a small group of traders have established extreme forex options bets, with the yen being the core of this strategy. Nomura Holdings' global head of forex options trading, Ruchir Sharma, stated that there is a profitable bet on the yen's surge in the next 6-12 months. "These bets are mainly made by selected funds, who buy deep out-of-the-money call options on the yen for a period of six months to a year," Sharma said. "If the employment data is weak, these trades will profit from a significant strengthening of the yen."
In August, the US announced the highest number of job cuts in five months, with the technology industry being hit particularly hard.
Thursday's data shows that due to uncertain economic growth prospects and persistent cost concerns, US employers announced the highest number of job cuts in five months in August, with the technology industry being hit particularly hard. However, the number of job cuts announced so far this year has decreased by 3.7%. The surge in August job cuts reflects increased economic uncertainty and changing market dynamics. More than half of the announced job cuts in August came from the technology industry, totaling 39,563 people, a significant increase from about 6,000 people in July, setting the highest record since January 2023. The medical and health industry announced the second highest number of job cuts, at 6,158 people.
The US, UK, and EU are set to sign an artificial intelligence standards agreement.
According to foreign reports, the US, UK, and EU will sign the first legally binding international convention on the use of artificial intelligence on Thursday. Companies are concerned that the piecemeal nature of regulations in different countries could hinder innovation. The convention, drafted over more than two years by over 50 countries including Canada, Israel, Japan, and Australia, requires signatory countries to be responsible for any harmful or discriminatory outcomes of AI systems. It also requires that the outputs of such systems respect equality and privacy, and that victims of AI-related rights violations have legal recourse.
The technology stocks 'seven sisters' are no longer as glorious, with small-cap stocks expected to lead in the second half of the year.
As of now, a key indicator for measuring US small-cap companies has outperformed the Wall Street benchmark S&P 500 index in the second half of 2024, indicating that market breadth has shifted from large-cap stocks to other areas. Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, said, "Although the upward trend of the US stock market remains strong in the second half of 2024, leadership has shifted from the giants to the minnows."
Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.
Reminder for US Macro Events
(All in Peking Time)
20:15 Change in US employment numbers in August
20:30 Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 31
22:00 US non-manufacturing PMI for August
23:00 Change in US crude oil inventories for the week ending August 30
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