Key points of investment
In August 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 14,036 new cars, up 3% year on year and 26% month on month. Among them, from January to August 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 77,209 new vehicles, an increase of 17% over the previous year.
In August, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 14,036 new cars, up from 13,690 in the same period last year, up 3% year on year and 26% month on month. Overall, in January-August, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 77,209 new vehicles, compared with 66,133 in the same period last year, an increase of 17% over the previous year. In August, the monthly active user penetration rate of XNGP Smart Driving in urban areas reached 85%, and the AI Tianji XOS 5.2.0 version completed a full OTA for overseas users.
MONA M03 complements the product matrix and further implements intelligence. 1) In terms of new cars, on August 27, Xiaopeng held the MONA M03 press conference to lower the threshold for advanced smart driving to less than 0.2 million, which is sure to exceed 30,000 units within 48 hours of launch. The M03 standard version is priced at 0.1198/0.1298 million yuan, and the Max smart driving version is priced at 0.1558 million yuan (delivered after the Spring Festival in '25). Apart from lidar, 7 cameras+12 ultrasonic radar+2 millimeter-wave radar sensing hardware, the Max Smart Driving Edition is equipped with dual Nvidia Orin-X chips to achieve the only high-end smart driving under 0.2 million yuan. 2) Intelligent dimension. On the hardware, the Xiaopeng Turing smart driving chip is custom-developed for large AI models. It is self-developed 2NPU+2 ISP, suitable for smart driving development, and is aimed at L4 smart driving 1 top 3 devices. The software company Xiaopeng Sensing Terminal has officially adopted a lidar-free solution since the launch of the new P7+ in 24Q4, and has relied on a new generation of AI Hawkeye Vision solutions to reduce the cost of intelligent driving perception.
Profit forecast and investment rating: We maintain the company's 2024-2026 operating income forecast of 38.7/74.2/109 billion yuan, and net profit to mother of -5.69/ -2.42/2.72 billion yuan, respectively; the corresponding EPS for 2026 is 0.01 yuan, considering the company's leading level of intelligent driving in the industry and its continued competitiveness in the future, maintaining the company's “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The price war in the passenger car industry exceeded expectations; the recovery in terminal demand fell short of expectations; the pace of introduction of L3 autonomous driving policies fell short of expectations.