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长城汽车(601633):8月销量环比回暖 海外出口+全新蓝山智驾共振

Great Wall Motor (601633): Sales picked up month-on-month in August, overseas exports+new Blue Mountain smart driving resonance

東吳證券 ·  Sep 5

In August 2024, Great Wall Motor achieved a total wholesale sales volume of 94,461 vehicles, -17.2%/+3.5% year-on-month. Among them, the wholesale sales volume of the Haval brand was 56,166 units, -15.6%; the WEY brand had wholesale sales of 3,001 units, -46.6%; the Great Wall pickup had wholesale sales of 13,718 units, -19.5% year over year; the Euler brand had wholesale sales of 5,151 units, or -49.5% year over year; and the tank brand had wholesale sales of 16,350 units, +11.4% year over year. Overseas sales in August 2024 were 40,454 vehicles, +31.6%/+5.9%, respectively, and overseas sales reached a new high; sales of new energy vehicles reached a new high of 24,844 units, -5.5%/+2.9% year-on-month, respectively.

In August, the Group sold 0.0945 million vehicles, with a new energy penetration rate of 26.3% and an export rate of 42.8%. Overseas sales increased year-on-year and reached a new high. 1) Overall: Great Wall Motors sold 94,461 vehicles in August, -17.2%/+3.5% year-on-month; overall, from January to August 2024, the Group's cumulative wholesale sales volume was 745,415 units, +0.40% year over year; looking at key models, the wholesale sales volume of the Haval brand in August was 56,166 units, the wholesale sales volume of the WEY brand was 3,001 units, and the wholesale sales volume of the Great Wall pickup truck was 13,718 units, the wholesale sales volume of the Euler brand was 5,151 units, and the tank brand sold 16,350 units. 2) Overseas: The company sold 40,454 vehicles overseas in August, +31.6%/+5.9%, respectively. Exports accounted for 42.8% of the group's sales, and +15.9/+1.0pct, respectively. 3) New energy: In August, Great Wall sold 24,844 new energy vehicles, +5.5%/+2.9% year on month, the penetration rate of new energy was 26.3%, and +3.2/-0.1 pct, respectively.

In August, Great Wall continued its globalization+intelligent strategy. Overseas sales reached a new high, and the new Blue Mountain Smart Car was launched. 1) In terms of globalization, the Group's overseas sales reached a new high in August and promoted the global 2.0 strategy. The GWM regional brand conference was launched in Montevideo, the capital of Uruguay. Haval, Euler, Tank, and Great Wall Gun brands joined forces. Tank 300 and Weipai Blue Mountain appeared at Brazil's Interlagos Auto Festival, and a limited edition of the Eula Good Cat GT was released under the joint name of the local trendy brand Approve. 2) Intelligent dimension. On August 21, Great Wall launched the new Blue Mountain, using Great Wall's third-generation Coffee PilotUltra smart driving system. The Great Wall opens the road to urban NOA, and can realize complex scenarios such as rural traffic, urban traffic, sudden obstacle avoidance, wireless driving, and multiple forks. The software-dimensional Great Wall uses the SEE end-to-end intelligent driving model and conveys all implicit features of BEV to decision planning.

Profit forecast and investment rating: We maintain the company's revenue forecast for 2024-2026 at 191.7/203.5/224.5 billion yuan, +11%/+6%/+10%, respectively, and net profit expectations to mother of 13.2/15/18.6 billion yuan, +88%/+14%/+24% year over year, corresponding EPS was 1.54/1.75/2.18 yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE valuation was 15/13/11 times, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.

Risk warning: Demand from overseas markets fell short of expectations; domestic passenger car price wars exceeded expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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