分渠道看，24H1 公司在西南、华东、华北、西北、其他区域分别实现营收18.7 亿元、15.0 亿元、5.4 亿元、6.8 亿元、7.7 亿元，同比分别变动-6.9%、+4.7%、+20.2%、-12.7%、23.4%，华东、华南区域增长较快，西北、西南地区由于常温奶业务较多，受整体需求影响，同比增速有所下滑。Incident: The company released its 2024 semi-annual report. 24H1 achieved revenue of 5.36 billion yuan, +1.3% year over year; realized net profit of 0.3 billion yuan, +25.3% year over year; realized net profit deducted from non-mother of 0.31 billion yuan, +36.4% year over year. According to estimates, 24Q2 achieved revenue of 2.75 billion yuan, -0.9% YoY; realized net profit of 0.21 billion yuan, +17.7% YoY; and realized net profit of 0.21 billion yuan without return to mother, +37.7% YoY.
Adhering to the fresh cube strategy, low-temperature products have maintained steady growth.
By product, 24H1's liquid milk, milk powder, and other products achieved revenue of 4.84 billion yuan, 0.035 billion yuan, and 0.49 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.5%, -15.2%, and +10.6%, respectively. Looking specifically at liquid milk, the 24H1 low temperature product category continued to grow. Low temperature fresh milk showed medium to high single digit growth, and low temperature yogurt achieved middle single digit growth; overall revenue from room temperature products declined by a single digit year on year, but the share of the high middle grade white milk market continued to increase.
By channel, 24H1 achieved revenue of 1.87 billion yuan, 1.5 billion yuan, 0.54 billion yuan, 0.68 billion yuan, 0.77 billion yuan, and 0.77 billion yuan in southwest China, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -6.9%, +4.7%, +20.2%, -12.7%, and 23.4%, respectively. The East China and South China regions grew rapidly. Due to the large room temperature milk business, the year-on-year growth rate declined slightly.
Gross margin improved, cost efficiency improved, and profitability continued to be realized. The gross profit margin of the 24Q2 company was 29.1%, up 0.3 pct year on year; the sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, and financial expense ratio were reduced by 0.6 pct, 0.4 pct, and 0.5 pct respectively. The sales expense ratio was affected by the product structure and the pace of investment, and the effect of lean management was evident. The reduction in weighted principal and interest rates on bank loans led to a significant improvement in financial expense ratio; in addition, net income from fair value changes decreased by 13.39 million yuan year on year; under comprehensive influence, 24Q2 company net income decreased by 13.39 million yuan year on year; under comprehensive influence, 24Q2 company net income decreased by 13.39 million yuan year on year; under the comprehensive impact, 24Q2 company net The interest rate was 7.7%, up 1.1 pct year over year.
Investment advice: The company firmly adheres to the Fresh Cube strategy, differentiates competition around core categories, DTC and emerging channels, focuses on endogenous growth and management efficiency improvement, maintains product and brand vitality with strong innovation capabilities, and is expected to have plenty of room to improve profitability. The company's EPS is expected to be 0.65, 0.79, and 0.95 yuan respectively in 2024-2026, and the current stock price is 14, 11, and 10 times PE, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Increased industry competition, fluctuating raw milk prices, downstream demand falling short of expectations, profit growth falling short of expectations, food safety issues.
