有税业务相对承压，免税业务逐步放量。分业态来看，24H1 百货/购物中心/奥特莱斯/专业店/免税的营收分别为23.19/15.42/11.40/7.58/1.72 亿元，同比分别-13.65%/+0.01%/+0.20%/-3.09%/+121.17% ； 毛利率分别为34.77%/44.41%/60.83%/16.36%/16.30%，同比分别-0.83/-3.46/-2.16/-1.98/-4.93pct。免税业务尚处于起步阶段，低基数下快速增长，其中部分合同的收入确认由总额法变更为净额法，导致毛利率受到影响。The company released its 2024 semi-annual report. 24H1 achieved revenue of 6.035 billion yuan, -5.40% YoY; net profit to mother 0.293 billion yuan, or -43.36% YoY. Short-term performance is pressured by factors such as insufficient consumer confidence and nurturing new businesses. There is sufficient potential for growth in the medium to long term, and the ratings for increasing holdings are maintained.
Key points to support ratings
Due to insufficient consumer confidence, the company's performance declined year on year. 24H1 achieved revenue of 6.035 billion yuan, -5.40% year-on-year, excluding new store factors, -7.33% year-on-year ratio; net profit to mother was 0.293 billion yuan, or -43.36% year-on-year. Of these, 24Q2 achieved revenue of 2.727 billion yuan, -9.49% YoY; net profit to mother was 0.091 billion yuan, or -68.65% YoY. Insufficient consumer confidence and weak consumption growth led to a year-on-year decline in the company's revenue. In addition, the decline in performance was also affected by factors such as cultivating new businesses and new stores, high upfront costs of new stores with a longer rental period due to new leasing standards, and changes in the fair value of shares held.
Taxable businesses are under relative pressure, and duty-free businesses are gradually being scaled up. By business type, the revenue of 24H1 department store/shopping center/outlet/specialty store/duty-free was 23.19/15.42/1.14/0.758/0.172 billion yuan, respectively, -13.65%/+0.01%/-0.20%/-3.09%/+121.17%; gross margin was 34.77%/44.41%/60.83%/16.36%/16.30%, respectively, -0.83/3.46/-2.16/-1.98/- 4.93pct The tax exemption business is still in its infancy and is growing rapidly under a low base. Revenue recognition for some of these contracts was changed from the total amount method to the net amount method, which affected gross margin.
It is expected that the implementation of the new tax exemption policy in the city will benefit, and it will win the bid for the port tax exemption project. In August, the company successfully won the bid for airport duty-free projects in Harbin and Mudanjiang. Recently, the Ministry of Finance and five other departments jointly issued a notice to improve the duty-free shop policy in the city, which will be implemented from October 1, 2024. In 8 cities including Guangzhou, Chengdu, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Wuhan, Xi'an, Changsha and Fuzhou, enterprises with duty-free business qualifications nationwide can compete equally for the right to operate in the city. The company is expected to participate in the competition to further enrich the type of duty-free shop business.
valuations
Considering that it will take time for consumer confidence to recover in the short term and the overall growth of the retail business is weak, we adjusted the company's 24-26 EPS to 0.51/0.66/0.80 yuan, corresponding price-earnings ratio of 23.7/18.4/15.0 times.
In the medium to long term, Olai/shopping malls are expected to maintain steady growth; duty-free sales on the outlying islands will continue, and a new duty-free policy will be implemented in the city, broadening the room for imagination. It also maintains an increase in holdings rating.
The main risks faced by ratings
The duty-free business fell short of expectations, the recovery in consumer consumption fell short of expectations, and market competition increased risks.
