费用率控制稳健、存货有所改善。公司2024H1 期间费用36.5 亿，同增56.8%，费用率9.5%，同增5.9pct；Q2 期间费用17.9 亿，同环比+479.9%/-3.2%，费用率8.6%，同环比+7.8/-1.9pct；2024Q2 经营现金流-15.2 亿，净流出环比收缩；2024Q2 资本开支25.9 亿，同环比-27.4/224.8%；2024Q2末存货184.1 亿元，较Q1 末-18.6%，有所改善。截至2024H1 在手货币资金577.8 亿，环比略降28 亿、在手现金充沛。Incident: The company's 2024H1 revenue of 38.53 billion yuan, net profit to mother -5.24 billion yuan, same -157.1%, gross profit margin of 7.7%, same -11.4pct, net profit margin of -13.6%, same -27.8pct; of these, 2024Q2 revenue was 20.86 billion yuan, 42.6% /18%, net profit to mother - 2.89 billion yuan, year-on-month -152.2%/23.1%, gross profit margin 6.6% , YoY -13.4/-2.3pct, net interest rate to mother -13.9%, YoY -29.1/-0.6pct. The results are in line with market expectations.
Actively adjust the pace of production and marketing, and face industrial fluctuations steadily. The company shipped 44.44 GW of 2024H1 silicon wafers (21.96 GW of export sales); 2.66 GW of batteries; 31.34 GW of modules. Among them, sales in the Asia-Pacific region also surged by 140% to support profits, and the US Leye achieved net profit of 0.76 billion. Q2 silicon wafers were exported to 9.53GW, and profits were greatly affected by impairment; components were shipped 18-19 GW. Due to falling industrial prices in 2024Q2, inventory depreciation of 2.97 billion and fixed asset impairment of 0.7 billion. Faced with sharp fluctuations in the period of deep industrial adjustment, the company actively adjusted the pace of production and marketing and coped with cyclical pressure.
With active production capacity/technology layout, BC has great potential. The company's N-type Terry silicon wafers have been introduced into mass production to improve battery quality and efficiency; with the construction of BC second-generation projects such as 12.5GW batteries in Xixian New Area and 12GW in Tongchuan, it is expected that HPBC 2.0 will be launched on a large scale by the end of 2024. It is expected that BC production capacity will reach 70 GW by the end of 2025 (of which 2.0 has a production capacity of about 50 GW), and all domestic batteries are scheduled to move to BC products by the end of '26. At present, the company has achieved smooth customs clearance of shipments in the North American region, and the US 5GW component factory has officially been put into operation, which strongly supports business development in North America.
Expense rate control is steady, and inventory has improved. The company's expenses for the 2024H1 period were 3.65 billion, up 56.8%, the cost rate was 9.5%, and 5.9pct; the Q2 period cost was 1.79 billion, +479.9%/-3.2%, the cost ratio was 8.6%, +7.8/-1.9pct; 2024Q2 operating cash flow -1.52 billion, net outflow contracted month-on-month; and 2024Q2 capital expenditure was 2.59 billion, -27.4/224.8% year-on-month; Inventory at the end of 2024Q2 was 18.41 billion yuan, an improvement over -18.6% at the end of Q1. As of 2024H1, the amount of money in hand was 57.78 billion, a slight decrease of 2.8 billion over the previous month, and there was plenty of cash on hand.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Due to increased competition in the industry, prices declined, and profit forecasts were lowered, the company's net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be -5.9/3.3/4.9 billion (3.5/6/8.5 billion yuan before 2024-2026), -155%/+156%/+49% year-on-year, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Policies fall short of expectations, and competition intensifies.
