瑞银对阿斯麦的前景持谨慎态度，有几个原因。首先，预计逻辑和内存领域的光刻强度将趋于平稳，光刻在晶圆厂设备总支出中的占比可能从2025年的30%峰值下降至2027年的25%。这种下降部分是由于全栅(GAA)技术架构的转变，以及DRAM制造中极紫外(EUV)层添加可能放缓。UBS Group downgraded its stock rating for ASML Holding from 'buy' to 'neutral', while Barclays raised its stock rating to 'shareholding'.
Smart Finance APP learned that UBS Group downgraded its stock rating for ASML.US from 'buy' to 'neutral', and lowered the target price from 1050 euros to 900 euros. This adjustment reflects the market's expectation of a slowdown in the company's earnings per share (EPS) growth rate. In contrast, Barclays is optimistic about the outlook for ASML, raising its stock rating to 'shareholding' and increasing the target price to 1150 euros, forecasting a sustained double-digit annual growth rate for the company from 2025 to 2028.
Despite ASML's outstanding performance in the european technology sector, UBS Group expects the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of its earnings per share from 2025 to 2030 to be 13%, a decrease from 24% from 2018 to 2025. UBS Group believes that this expected growth rate supports the 'normalization' of ASML's price-to-earnings ratio relative to peers and historical average levels. Despite the optimistic outlook for 2025, market focus is expected to shift to 2026/27. UBS Group predicts that earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) in the coming years will be 5-10% lower than the general expectations.
UBS Group has a cautious outlook on ASML for several reasons. First, the intensity of lithography in the logic and memory sectors is expected to stabilize, with the proportion of lithography in total wafer fab equipment expenditure possibly declining from its peak of 30% in 2025 to 25% in 2027. This decline is partly due to the transition to the Gate-All-Around (GAA) technology architecture, as well as a potential slowdown in the addition of Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) layers in DRAM manufacturing.
Second, UBS Group estimates that revenue from artificial intelligence (AI) end applications may account for only 10-15% of ASML's revenue in the next three to five years, insufficient to offset the above trends. In addition, the potential risks in the China market should not be underestimated, with lithography technology expenditure expected to normalize. Based on forecasts for 2024, China accounts for 35% of ASML's revenue and may face additional export controls, affecting sales, especially to memory customers. UBS Group expects a year-on-year decline of 24% in revenue from China in 2025 and an 11% decline in 2026.
In other news, despite ASML achieving a significant 1.3% growth in the technology sector, according to Wolfe Research's data, the company's third-quarter revenue expectations are lower than the general expectations. Wolfe Research maintains its 'outperform the large cap' rating for ASML, believing that the revenue shortfall is a timing issue, and expects a significant improvement in revenue in the second half of 2024.
Meanwhile, Barclays raised its stock rating for ASML from 'holding' to 'shareholding', and increased the target price from the previous 930 euros to 1150 euros. Barclays expects a year-on-year growth rate of 15% in 2026 for ASML, compared to 27% in 2025, and forecasts continued double-digit growth for ASML in the coming years (2027 and 2028).
