维持“增持”评级。2024H1 公司归母净利润8亿元，同比+16.35%，Q2 归母净利4.74 亿元，同比+12.71%，环比+45.16%，扣非归母净利6.94 亿元，同比+106.83%，环比+128.51%。考虑未来消费电子行业需求以及锡价变化，调整公司2024-2026 年业绩：预计其2024-2026 年EPS 为1.22/1.56/1.66 元（-/+0.04/-0.01）。参考同行业，给予公司2024 年13 倍PE，下调目标价至15.86 元（原为21.63 元），维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
In 24Q2, the company's net profit after deduction increased by 106.83% year-on-year to 0.694 billion yuan, and the company's performance improved. Currently, the supply of tin ore in the industry is tight. Demand is picking up as the semiconductor cycle comes out of the bottom. Tin price support is strong, and the company's profits are expected to continue to increase.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. 2024H1's net profit to mother was 0.8 billion yuan, +16.35% year over year, Q2 net profit to mother 0.474 billion yuan, +12.71% YoY, +45.16% month-on-month, net profit of 0.694 billion yuan after deducting non-mother net profit, +106.83% YoY and +128.51% month-on-month. Considering future consumer electronics industry demand and changes in tin prices, adjust the company's 2024-2026 performance: its 2024-2026 EPS is expected to be 1.22/1.56/1.66 yuan (-/+0.04/-0.01). Referring to the same industry, the company was given 13 times PE in 2024, the target price was lowered to 15.86 yuan (originally 21.63 yuan), and the “gain” rating was maintained.
Prices of major products have risen, leading to increased performance. The output of 24H1's main products increased steadily. The output of tin/copper/zinc/indium ingots was 0.0452 million tons/0.0703 million tons/0.0688 million tons/65 tons, +6.6%/+7.99%/4.56%/42.42% compared with the same period last year. Production prices increased. 24H1 Shanghai tin/copper/zinc prices were 0.2403/0.075/0.022 million yuan/ton, respectively, +15.5%/+9.97%/+0.99%. The company's gross profit improved markedly, increasing 0.509 billion to 2.24 billion over the same period last year. Although expenses during the 24H1 period were 0.825 billion yuan, -0.002 billion yuan year-on-year, non-operating expenses were +0.247 billion yuan, mainly due to the scrapping of fixed assets in Q2. Net investment income decreased by 0.12 billion yuan, which dragged down net profit.
Tin supply disturbances continue, downstream demand is booming, and tin price support is strong. Wabang tin ore has yet to resume production. The beneficiation plant mainly consumes stocks. As its inventory falls to a low level, the amount of imported tin ore may continue to narrow. Meanwhile, Indonesia's refined tin exports were affected by licensing, and imports fell sharply, and may recover in the second half of the year. In terms of demand, solder is the most important application area for tin and is closely related to the semiconductor cycle. In 24Q2, global smartphone shipments were +7.58% year over year, PC shipments were +5.36% year over year. The semiconductor cycle entered a recovery range. Combined with the development of AI, high demand for computing power is increasing, and the gap between supply and demand may widen, providing support for tin prices.
Expand partners and consolidate leading influence. On January 12, 2024, the parent company Yunxi Holdings signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Xiamen Tungsten Industry. The two sides will carry out extensive cooperation on technical collaboration and raw material guarantee, tungsten resource development and expansion, and industrial chain expansion. On August 23, 2024, the company and PT Tima of Indonesia signed a “Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement”. PT Tima is the fifth largest producer of fine tin in the world. This agreement will help the two sides achieve cooperation in various fields such as business and technology in the future development process, promote complementary advantages, and further consolidate the company's influence in the tin industry.
Risk warning: tin prices fluctuate greatly, demand falls short of expectations, etc.
