Scott Rubner, Global Head of Market for Goldman Sachs and strategy expert, said that if the weak non-farm payrolls data is released on Friday, there may be an adjustment in the US stock market.

Rubner wrote in a report on Wednesday that the bank's clients have been prepared for the negative technical aspects of share prices in the second half of September, and he added that he expects the hedging to begin on September 16.

"If the non-farm payrolls data is weak on Friday, market corrections may begin to be driven," he wrote.

As Ruburna pointed out, the end of September is historically the worst two-week trading period.$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$This time, the systematic funds following the trend have almost no room to increase stock exposures, and companies are about to enter their buyback blackout periods, which will further reduce stock market demand. Goldman Sachs's buyback team estimates that the passive demand of this group will be around $6.6 billion before the comprehensive buyback blackout period begins on September 13th.

Rubner wrote, "US companies have always been the biggest buyers in the stock market, and we expect their demand to decrease by 35% during the blackout period. This week is the peak of corporate repurchases."

There have been some warning signals in positions. Rule-based systematic funds, such as Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), currently show a downward bias in the next month: in a stable market, CTAs may sell over $17 billion of US stocks. In a rising market, the selling amount may reach $3.7 billion; in a downward market, the selling amount can climb to over $65 billion.

In addition, global active investors, mainly hedge funds, have higher US stock risk exposure heading into September than in the past six election cycles, indicating a greater selling space as the US presidential election approaches. Rubner wrote that retirement funds currently have sufficient funds and have been reducing stock risks before the election.

Luna's recent views are very foresighted. In mid-June, when the market reached new highs and Wall Street raised the target of the S&P 500 index, he simulated a late summer correction that began on July 17. On that day, the S&P 500 index fell by 1.4% and continued to decline until August 5, when it fell by 8.5%. The reaction of technology stocks was even more intense, with the index plummeting more than 12% in three weeks, entering into a correction zone. Then, in mid-August, he turned tactically bullish and called for buying opportunities when US stocks fell briefly. Since then, the S&P 500 index has risen by nearly 4%.$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$The reaction of technology stocks was even more intense, with the index plummeting more than 12% in three weeks, entering into a correction zone. Then, in mid-August, he turned tactically bullish and called for buying opportunities when US stocks fell briefly. Since then, the S&P 500 index has risen by nearly 4%.

Now he is bearish on the US stock market again, at least until the end of the US presidential election, because "the November election will be a liquidation event for risk assets," wrote Luna.

According to data from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley institutional brokerage departments, this is good news for hedge funds. Hedge funds have been withdrawing due to expected market volatility in September.

Editor/Rocky