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Futu Morning News | The "arrow" of interest rate cuts is on the string! The hawkish voting committee suddenly released a dovish signal, and the market increased its bet on a 50 basis point interest rate cut; Tesla rose more than 4% against the market and

Futu News · Sep 5 08:01

热点要闻

美职位空缺数下降幅度超预期，市场加大美联储降息押注

周三的数据显示，7月份的职位空缺降至三年半以来的最低水平，这让外界进一步提高了对50个基点降息的猜测。CME显示，市场仍认为美联储9月17日至18日的会议上降息25个基点的可能性较高，但降息50个基点的概率攀升至约44%。

已准备好降息！美联储“鹰派”票委竟突然释放货币宽松信号

美联储“鹰派”官员博斯蒂克最新表示，他已经将焦点转移到央行的“双重使命”上，并提到已经准备好开始降低利率。他认为就业市场“有所放松，但仍大致稳定”，“劳动力市场正较先前变得弱了一些，但客观上并不疲软。”

美联储褐皮书：更多地区经济活动陷入停滞，物价压力趋于稳定

美联储发布的经济状况“褐皮书”显示，大多数地区的经济活动持平或下降，从七月的5个增至9个，仅三个地区的经济活动略微增长，同时大多数地区的消费支出放缓。劳动力市场喜忧参半，雇主变得更为挑剔，不愿扩招员工，但裁员仍然很少见。分析称，美联储越发担心经济增长速度，这也是鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔演讲中鸽派转向的原因之一。

两年来，美债收益率曲线第二次短暂结束倒挂，但可能释放衰退信号？

隔夜，疲软的劳动力数据助长美联储降息押注，令对经济有前瞻指标作用的2年/10年期美债收益率曲线曾短暂结束倒挂，上次发生在8月5日欧美股市因非农不佳而大跌之际。但从历史上看，当收益率曲线结束倒挂时，经济开始出现问题，这对股市来说也许是一个负面信号。

美股复盘

三大指数涨跌不一，特斯拉逆市涨超4%，英伟达两天累跌11%

美股周三窄幅震荡，三大指数收盘涨跌不一，标普和纳指连跌两日。截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.09%，标普500指数跌0.16%，纳斯达克综合指数跌0.30%。

大型科技股多数收跌，英伟达两日累跌11.02%，苹果跌0.86%，微软跌0.13%，谷歌C跌0.50%，亚马逊跌1.66%，Meta Platforms涨0.19%，特斯拉涨4.18%。

被指面临反垄断调查，英伟达表示未收到美国司法部的传票

$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$ 隔夜续跌1.66%，最新消息表示还没有被美国司法部传唤，此前有报道称，正在搜集违反反垄断法证据的司法部向该芯片商及其它公司发送了传票。“英伟达以实力取胜，这体现在我们的基准业绩和对客户的价值，并且客户可以选择最适合他们的解决方案，”该公司在一份声明中表示，并补充说，“我们已经询问了美国司法部，还没有收到传票。尽管如此，我们很乐意回答监管机构对我们业务的任何疑问。”

特斯拉涨超4%，预计明年开始限量生产人形机器人

$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$ 大涨超4%，消息面上，2024Inclusion·外滩大会将在上海黄浦世博园开幕，特斯拉将携最新硬核产品——赛博越野旅行车和Optimus人形机器人亮相。特斯拉表示，其目标是让机器人的成本大幅降低，从数十万美元降至一两万美元。特斯拉预计将于明年开始限量生产人形机器人，将有超过1000个Optimus在特斯拉工厂帮助人类完成生产任务。

C3.ai盘后跌超16%，25财年Q1订阅收入不及预期

$C3.ai (AI.US)$ 盘后跌超16%，公司25财年Q1营收8720万美元，同比增长21%；订阅收入7350万美元，同比增长20%，不及市场预期的7350万美元；Q1每股亏损0.05美元，分析师预期每股亏损0.13美元；预计第二财季营收8860至9360万美元，分析师预期9130万美元；仍预计全财年营收3.7亿至3.95亿美元，分析师预期3.839亿美元。

又一美国一元店巨头亮消费红灯！Dollar Tree全年盈利指引猛砍20%，股价大跌22%

$美元树公司 (DLTR.US)$ 二季度净销售73.7亿美元，同比增长0.7%；调整后每股收益为0.67美元，同比下降26.4%。Dollar将全年销售指引下调约1.3%至3.4%，整个EPS指引区间则大幅下调20%，EPS指引由此远低于华尔街预期，新指引的低端较分析师预期低近21%，高端低近15%。

挑战英特尔PC芯片霸主地位！高通推出AI PC芯片Snapdragon X Plus 8

$高通 (QCOM.US)$ 周三在德国柏林的IFA大会上发布Snapdragon X Plus 8核处理器，分析认为，这款新AI PC处理器将加大高通对英特尔在PC处理器市场主导地位的挑战力度。

GitLab涨逾21%，第二财季营收同比增长31%超预期

$Gitlab (GTLB.US)$ 涨超21%，消息面上，GitLab公布2025财年Q2业绩，营收1.826亿美元，同比增长31%，市场预期1.76亿美元。此外，瑞银将GitLab的目标价从62美元上调65美元，维持“买入”评级。RBC Capital将其目标价从55美元上调60美元，维持“跑赢大市”评级。

AMD涨近3%，任命前英伟达高管为全球人工智能市场高级副总裁

$美国超微公司 (AMD.US)$ 涨近3%，消息面上，AMD任命前英伟达高管Keith Strier担任全球人工智能市场高级副总裁。Strier将负责拓展公司的人工智能愿景。

美国钢铁大跌超17%，消息称美国政府将阻止新日铁收购

$美国钢铁 (X.US)$ 隔夜大跌超17%，有媒体报道称，三位知情人士透露，美国总统拜登已准备宣布阻止日本制铁公司对美国钢铁的收购案。自去年宣布以来，这项拟议的交易一直在接受美国外国投资委员会（CFIUS）的调查。

美股成交额TOP20

港市前瞻

北水扫货中石化、建设银行各约3亿港元，卖出腾讯近3亿港元

9月4日（周三），南下资金净卖出港股37.03亿港元。

$中国石油化工股份 (00386.HK)$、 $建设银行 (00939.HK)$ 、$中国移动 (00941.HK)$分别获净买入3.19亿港元、2.86亿港元、1.97亿港元；

$盈富基金 (02800.HK)$、$恒生中国企业 (02828.HK)$、$腾讯控股 (00700.HK)$分别遭净卖出37.21亿港元、8.69亿港元、2.89亿港元。

恒生指数公司：新增快速纳入规则至港股通指数

9月4日，恒生指数公司公告，恒生港股通指数、恒生中国（香港上市）25指数、恒生港股通人工智能主题指数、恒生港股通中国科技指数、恒生港股通新经济指数中的港股通指数将新增快速纳入规则。

公告称，倘有证券因从第二上市转换为主要或双重主要上市而符合南向互联互通交易资格，恒生指数有限公司将对该证券进行快速纳入检讨。在符合互联互通资格首天，倘该合资格证券的收市总市值在现有成份股中排名前10，该证券会于下次常规月度调整中被纳入指数或另行说明。

重磅官宣！淘宝、微信支付，"通"了！

9月4日， $阿里巴巴-W (09988.HK)$ 旗下淘宝公告计划新增微信支付能力，允许商户接入 $腾讯控股 (00700.HK)$ 旗下微信支付方式。据了解，待该支付能力正式上线后，已开通的淘宝天猫商家付款页面将直接显示“微信支付”选项，用户也可以在淘宝天猫 APP直接使用微信支付。

牛牛晨读：

变化总在发生，你不去迎接进步的变化，就会等到退步的变化。
——查理·芒格

编辑/Somer

Hot news

The decline in job vacancies in the United States exceeded expectations, and the market increased its bet on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Data on Wednesday showed that job vacancies in July fell to their lowest level in three and a half years, further fueling speculation of a 50 basis point interest rate cut. According to CME, the market still believes that there is a higher possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September 17-18 meeting, but the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut has risen to about 44%.

Ready for rate cuts! A hawkish voting member of the Federal Reserve suddenly released a signal of monetary easing.

Federal Reserve 'hawkish' official Bostic recently stated that he has shifted his focus to the central bank's 'dual mandate' and mentioned that he is ready to start lowering interest rates. He believes that the labor market is 'somewhat relaxed but still generally stable', and that the labor market has weakened somewhat, but objectively speaking, it is not weak.

Federal Reserve Beige Book: More regions experiencing economic stagnation, with price pressures tending to stabilize.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book on economic conditions shows that economic activity in most regions remained flat or declined, increasing from five in July to nine, with only three regions experiencing slight growth in economic activity, while consumer spending slowed in most regions. The labor market is mixed, with employers becoming more picky and reluctant to expand their workforce, but layoffs remain rare. Analysts say that the Fed is increasingly concerned about the pace of economic growth, which is one of the reasons for Powell's dovish turn in his Jackson Hole speech.

For the second time in two years, the US bond yield curve briefly ended its inversion, but could this signal a recession?

Overnight, weak labor data fueled bets on a rate cut by the Fed, briefly ending the inverted yield curve of the 2-year/10-year Treasury bonds, which serve as leading indicators for the economy. The last inversion occurred on August 5, when global stocks plummeted due to poor nonfarm payroll data. However, historically, when the yield curve ends its inversion, it signals the onset of economic problems, which may be a negative signal for the stock market.

Gamestop's surge has dramatically narrowed, with the trading platform considering unplugging the internet of US retail investors.

The three major indices had mixed performances, with Tesla rising more than 4% against the tide, while Nvidia experienced an 11% cumulative decline over the past two days.

The US stock market experienced narrow fluctuations on Wednesday, with the three major indices closing with mixed results. The Dow Jones Index rose by 0.09%, while the S&P 500 Index fell by 0.16%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 0.30% for the second consecutive day.

Most large technology stocks declined, with Nvidia experiencing an 11.02% decline over the past two days, Apple falling by 0.86%, Microsoft falling by 0.13%, Google Class C shares falling by 0.50%, Amazon falling by 1.66%, Meta Platforms rising by 0.19%, and Tesla surging by 4.18%.

Facing an antitrust investigation, Nvidia stated that it has not received a subpoena from the US Department of Justice.

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Nvidia continued to fall by 1.66% overnight. The latest news indicates that it has not been subpoenaed by the US Department of Justice. Earlier reports suggested that the Department of Justice, which is collecting evidence of antitrust violations, had sent subpoenas to the chipmaker and other companies. "Nvidia succeeds through strength, as evidenced by our baseline performance and the value we offer to customers, who can choose the solutions that best suit their needs," the company said in a statement. "We have reached out to the US Department of Justice and have not received a subpoena. Nevertheless, we are more than willing to address any concerns that regulatory agencies may have about our business."

Tesla rose more than 4%, and is expected to begin limited production of humanoid robots next year.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Major surge of over 4%. On the news front, the 2024 Inclusion Bund Summit will open at the Shanghai Huangpu Expo Park, where Tesla will showcase its latest hardcore products: the Cyber Off-Road Travel Car and Optimus humanoid robot. Tesla stated that its goal is to significantly reduce the cost of robots, from hundreds of thousands of dollars to ten to twenty thousand dollars. Tesla is expected to begin limited production of humanoid robots next year, with over 1000 Optimus robots assisting humans in production tasks at Tesla factories.

c3.ai fell more than 16% after hours, with subscription revenue for Q1 of fiscal year 25 falling short of expectations.

$C3.ai (AI.US)$ After-hours trading fell more than 16%. The company's Q1 revenue for the 25th fiscal year was $87.2 million, a 21% YoY increase; subscription revenue was $73.5 million, a 20% YoY increase, which fell short of market expectations of $73.5 million; Q1 loss per share was $0.05, analysts expected a loss per share of $0.13; Q2 revenue is expected to be $886.0 million to $93.6 million, analysts expect $91.3 million; the full-year revenue is still expected to be $0.37 billion to $0.395 billion, analysts expect $0.3839 billion.

Another USA dollar store giant flashes a consumer red light! Dollar Tree's full-year profit guidance was slashed by 20%, and the stock price plummeted by 22%.

$Dollar Tree (DLTR.US)$ In the second quarter, net sales were $7.37 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%; adjusted EPS was $0.67, a year-on-year decrease of 26.4%. Dollar Tree lowered its full-year sales guidance by about 1.3% to 3.4%, and the entire EPS guidance range was significantly lowered by 20%. The EPS guidance is thus far below Wall Street's expectations, with the lower end being nearly 21% lower than analysts' expectations and the upper end being nearly 15% lower.

Challenging intel's dominant position in PC chips! Qualcomm introduces the AI PC chip Snapdragon X Plus 8

$Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$ On Wednesday, at the IFA conference in Berlin, Germany, Qualcomm announced the Snapdragon X Plus octa-core processor. Analysts believe that this new AI PC processor will intensify Qualcomm's challenge to Intel's dominant position in the PC processor market.

GitLab rose more than 21%. In terms of news, GitLab announced its Q2 performance for the fiscal year 2025, with revenue of $0.1826 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31%, exceeding the market's expectations of $0.176 billion. In addition, UBS Group raised GitLab's target price from $62 to $65, maintaining a 'buy' rating. RBC Capital raised its target price from $55 to $60, maintaining an 'outperform' rating.

$Gitlab (GTLB.US)$ Rose more than 21%. In terms of news, GitLab announced its Q2 performance for the fiscal year 2025, with revenue of $0.1826 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31%, exceeding the market's expectations of $0.176 billion. In addition, UBS Group raised GitLab's target price from $62 to $65, maintaining a 'buy' rating. RBC Capital raised its target price from $55 to $60, maintaining an 'outperform' rating.

AMD rose nearly 3%, appointing a former NVIDIA executive as Senior Vice President for the global AI market.

$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ The stock rose nearly 3%. On the news front, AMD appointed former NVIDIA executive Keith Strier as Senior Vice President of Global AI Markets. Strier will be responsible for expanding the company's AI vision.

United States Steel plummeted over 17% on news that the U.S. government will block the acquisition by Nippon Steel.

$United States Steel (X.US)$ It plunged over 17% overnight. According to media reports, three informants revealed that U.S. President Biden is prepared to announce the halt of the acquisition ofUnited States Steelby the Japanese iron company. Since the announcement last year, the proposed transaction has been under investigation by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS).

If you want to play this game, you must believe in yourself and your judgment.

BeiShui crazily bought China Mobile for nearly HKD 1.8 billion and sold Tencent for about HKD 200 million. On Monday (June 3rd), Southbound funds net purchased HKD 3.4 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

Buying approximately 0.3 billion Hong Kong dollars each of Sinopec Corp and China Construction Bank. Selling approximately 0.3 billion Hong Kong dollars of Tencent.

On September 4th (Wednesday), southbound funds net sold 3.703 billion Hong Kong dollars of Hong Kong stocks.

$SINOPEC CORP (00386.HK)$and$CCB (00939.HK)$N/A.$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$Net purchases of 0.319 billion Hong Kong dollars, 0.286 billion Hong Kong dollars, 0.197 billion Hong Kong dollars respectively.

$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$Hang Seng H-Share Index ETF (02828.HK)$,$TENCENT (00700.HK)$They were respectively sold out by 3.721 billion Hong Kong dollars, 0.869 billion Hong Kong dollars, 0.289 billion Hong Kong dollars.

Hang Seng Index Company: New fast inclusion rules added to the Stock Connect Index.

On September 4, Hang Seng Index Company announced that the Hong Kong Stock Connect Index, Hang Seng China (Hong Kong Listed) 25 Index, Hang Seng Stock Connect Artificial Intelligence Theme Index, Hang Seng Stock Connect China Technology Index, and Hang Seng Stock Connect New Economy Index will have new fast inclusion rules.

The announcement stated that if a security meets the qualification for Southbound Stock Connect trading by converting from a secondary listing to a primary or dual primary listing, Hang Seng Index Limited will review the security for fast inclusion. On the first day of qualification for Stock Connect, if the closing total market value of the eligible security ranks in the top 10 among the existing constituents, the security will be included in the index or explained separately in the next regular monthly adjustment.

Major announcement! Taobao and WeChat Pay are now connected!

On September 4, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ Taobao under its umbrella announced plans to add WeChat Pay capabilities and allow merchants to access it. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Under WeChat payment methods. It is understood that after the payment capability is officially launched, the payment page of Alipay Taobao merchants that have already been opened will directly display the option for "WeChat Pay", and users can also use WeChat Pay directly on the Alipay Taobao APP.

Futubull Morning News:

Changes are always happening. If you don't embrace progressive changes, you will end up waiting for regressive changes.
"- Charlie Munger"

Editor/Somer

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