贸易物流毛利率提升，“全球汇”消费平台助力丝路电商外高桥保税区进出口金额在中国主要保税区中名列前茅，占浦东新区/上海市进出口额比例稳定在40%/25%左右。由于低毛利细分业务商品销售营收下滑，2019 年来公司贸易及服务板块营收水平下滑。受益于毛利水平较高的进出口代理和物流业务的稳健收入，公司2023 年贸易及服务板块毛利水平相较2019 年提升10.6pct 至22.1%。2022 年公司推出“全球汇”以承接进博会溢出效应，并在2023 年成为“丝路电商”核心载体，进行专业贸易服务，未来贸易及服务板块增长可期。Key points of investment:
The operator of the free trade zone with a 30-year history, the dividend rate increased to 50%. The company was founded in 1990. It is the developer of the country's first free trade zone, the first bonded logistics park, and the first core area of the pilot free trade zone. As a Shanghai state-owned holding company, the executives all have extensive experience based in Pudong. The company's three main businesses are park property leasing, trade and services, and real estate development and sales. Revenue fluctuated due to the carry-over pace of real estate sales, and gross margin increased steadily. The company's dividend ratio is among the highest among comparable companies, and the dividend rate was raised from 30% to 50% at the beginning of the year, which is characterized by high dividends.
Property leasing is a ballast stone business, which relies on the “three bases and four” industry revenue and steady leasing assets. Currently, the company holds 4.71 million square meters of leased assets, and the vacancy rate continues to decline. Currently, it has been determined that 0.4 million square meters of industrial property will be delivered over the next 2 years. In terms of rental revenue, the 20/22 pandemic rent reduction disturbances were eliminated, industrial leasing accounted for more than 80%, and gross margin continued to rise. Relying on the continuous layout of the “three bases and quadruple” industries, future revenue stability is guaranteed.
The gross margin of trade and logistics has increased, and the “Global Exchange” consumer platform has helped the Silk Road e-commerce Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone rank among the top import and export volume of China's major free trade zones, accounting for a stable ratio of 40%/25% of the import and export volume of Pudong New Area/Shanghai. The revenue level of the company's trade and service sector has declined since 2019 due to a decline in product sales revenue in the low-margin segment. Benefiting from steady income from import and export agency and logistics businesses with high gross profit levels, the company's gross profit level in the trade and services sector increased 10.6pct to 22.1% in 2023 compared to 2019. In 2022, the company launched “Global Exchange” to take advantage of the spillover effects of the Expo, and became the core carrier of “Silk Road e-commerce” in 2023 to carry out professional trade services. The future growth of the trade and service sector can be expected.
The real estate sector built the Sunland brand, and the integration of industry and city leverages the Waigaoqiao Industrial Synergies. The company's real estate sales business is mainly land development and sales in the Waigaoqiao Senlan region. Affected by the project carry-over cycle, revenue changed greatly from year to year. In 2023, the company achieved a total revenue of 1.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.2%. As of the end of 2023, the company had 0.6 million square meters of housing project reserves, namely Haitian Mingzhu in Zhuqiao, Hanghui Mingting in Hangtou, and Sunland Island in the Senran sector. Semland is positioned as a high-end low-density home, and plans to sell 0.03 million square meters in the first phase. Based on the sales price of the surrounding land plot of 0.1-0.12 million/square meter, the value of one futures is about 3-3.6 billion yuan, and it will also provide revenue growth for the real estate sales sector in the future.
Profit forecasting and investment advice
We expect the company's revenue growth rate in 2024-2026 to be 6%/0%/19%, net profit growth to mother of 10%/-9%/54%, and EPS of 0.90/0.82/1.26 yuan respectively. Using the comparable company valuation method, the median PE multiple for comparable companies in 2024 is 12.5 times. Steady management of the leasing business and trading business, and high-end project reserves in the real estate sales sector gave Waigaoqiao 13 times PE in 2024, with a target price of 11.69 yuan. For the first time, coverage gave it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Property rental occupancy rates fall short of expectations; the pace of completion of real estate development projects falls short of expectations; residents' willingness to buy homes falls short of expectations; international trade frictions intensify
