消费电子板块复苏，Q2 业绩环比大增。此前公司预告24H1 归母净利润7.67~8.99 亿元，实际业绩位于预告中值附近。Q2 营收增长主要受益消费电子板块复苏，据IDC 统计，24Q2 全球智能机销量达2.85 亿部，同比+6.5%；全球PC 销量约为6490 万部，同比+3%。同时公司盈利能力明显提升，由于中报公司将计提的保证类质保费用计入主营业务成本，不再计入销售费用，若按照调整前同一口径计算，24Q2 公司毛利率为17.7%，同比+2.5pct，环比+1.0pct。营收增长叠加盈利能力修复，公司Q2 业绩实现环比大增，同比下滑主因去年同期汇兑收益较多，23H1 为2.1 亿元，24H1 为0.46 亿元。Event: Company releases 2024 mid-year report
1) 24H1: Revenue 23.92 billion yuan, +7.6% year over year; net profit to mother 0.82 billion yuan, +87.9% year on year; net profit without return to mother 0.81 billion yuan, +119.3% year over year. Gross profit margin 16.6%, +2.1pct year; net profit margin 1.7%, +1.0pct year over year.
2) 24Q2: Revenue of 12.94 billion yuan, +10.1% YoY, +17.9%; net profit to mother 0.51 billion yuan, -16.3% YoY, +58.5% month-on-month; net profit of 0.53 billion yuan after deducting non-return to mother, -13.8% YoY, +90.5% month-on-month. Gross profit margin 16.6%, +1.5pct YoY, +0.1pct month-on-month; net profit margin 3.0%, YoY -1.5pct, +2.8pct month-on-month.
The consumer electronics sector recovered, and Q2 performance increased significantly from month to month. Previously, the company predicted 24H1 net profit of 7.67 to 0.899 billion yuan, and the actual performance was near the median forecast. The Q2 revenue growth mainly benefited from the recovery of the consumer electronics sector. According to IDC statistics, in 24Q2, global smart phone sales reached 0.285 billion units, +6.5% year over year; global PC sales volume was about 64.9 million units, +3% year over year. At the same time, the company's profitability increased markedly. Since the interim report company included the calculated guarantee costs in the main business costs and was no longer included in sales expenses, if calculated according to the same caliber before the adjustment, the 24Q2 company's gross margin was 17.7%, +2.5pct year over year, and +1.0pct month-on-month. Revenue growth combined with profitability restoration, and the company's Q2 performance achieved a significant month-on-month increase. The year-on-year decline was mainly due to high exchange earnings in the same period last year. 23H1 was 0.21 billion yuan, and 24H1 was 0.046 billion yuan.
The self-supply ratio of 3C cells continues to increase, and profitability has improved. The company continues to increase the self-supply rate of consumer batteries and increase the added value of products. The gross margin of 24H1 consumer batteries reached 18.1%, +4.1pct year on year, and Huizhou Liwei's net profit reached 0.28 billion yuan, +258.3% year-on-year. With the further increase in the self-supply rate of cells, profitability is expected to continue to improve in the future.
Investment advice: Considering the increase in the profitability of the 24H1 consumer battery business, we raised the profit forecast appropriately. We expect the company's net profit to be 1.68/2.07/2.44 billion yuan in 2024-26 (previously 1.41/1.76/2.16 billion yuan), corresponding to PE 19/15/13 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Market competition intensifies, downstream demand recovery falls short of expectations, energy storage business development falls short of expectations, and the risk of untimely updates of research and usage data.
