ZTO Express (Cayman)'s (NYSE:ZTO) stock is up by a considerable 21% over the past month. Given the company's impressive performance, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely as a company's financial health over the long-term usually dictates market outcomes. In this article, we decided to focus on ZTO Express (Cayman)'s ROE.
ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.
How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?
The formula for ROE is:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for ZTO Express (Cayman) is:
14% = CN¥8.6b ÷ CN¥61b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).
The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.14 in profit.
What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?
Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company's earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don't share these attributes.
ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Earnings Growth And 14% ROE
At first glance, ZTO Express (Cayman) seems to have a decent ROE. Further, the company's ROE is similar to the industry average of 14%. This certainly adds some context to ZTO Express (Cayman)'s moderate 15% net income growth seen over the past five years.
As a next step, we compared ZTO Express (Cayman)'s net income growth with the industry and found that the company has a similar growth figure when compared with the industry average growth rate of 14% in the same period.
Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if ZTO Express (Cayman) is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.
Is ZTO Express (Cayman) Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?
ZTO Express (Cayman) has a healthy combination of a moderate three-year median payout ratio of 41% (or a retention ratio of 59%) and a respectable amount of growth in earnings as we saw above, meaning that the company has been making efficient use of its profits.
Moreover, ZTO Express (Cayman) is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of five years of paying a dividend. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 43%. Therefore, the company's future ROE is also not expected to change by much with analysts predicting an ROE of 16%.
Conclusion
On the whole, we feel that ZTO Express (Cayman)'s performance has been quite good. In particular, it's great to see that the company is investing heavily into its business and along with a high rate of return, that has resulted in a sizeable growth in its earnings. The latest industry analyst forecasts show that the company is expected to maintain its current growth rate. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.