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科技股又暴跌,分析师怎么看?

Technology stocks have plummeted again, how do analysts see it?

Zhitong Finance ·  Sep 4 07:05

The bull market in the stock market was severely hit in early September, and technology stocks in particular faced significant selling pressure.

Concerns about economic growth have led to the largest month-long sell-off in US stocks, with the market darling chip maker losing $279 billion in market capitalization. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ The bull market in the stock market was severely hit in early September, and technology stocks in particular faced significant selling pressure.

On Wednesday, chip stocks dragged down global stock markets. Oil prices in the Asian market fell to their lowest level since the beginning of the year, the safe-haven currency yen rose, and the Nikkei fell more than 3%, while stock markets outside of Japan fell by nearly 2%.

Analysts and investors have expressed their views on the market trend, and here are some comments:

Britney Lam, portfolio manager at Dubai Magellan Capital, said,

"If everyone now includes (chip) demand in the price, then the positions are already in place. Regardless of how I divide the data, expectations have been factored into the price. It's like riding a roller coaster, you can still go up, but the increment just slows down. Do you really want to stay at the party until 5 a.m.?"

Hong Kong Morgan Stanley Asset Management's Chief Market Strategist for Asia, Tai Hui.

There is no clear fundamental story behind this, which means some investors are raising a reasonable and healthy question: how quickly can the development of artificial intelligence be realized? How do companies monetize it in the short term?

I think this is a fair question and it lacks a clear answer. Some may feel that the current valuations may be too optimistic. Given the ADP employment data tonight and on Friday, I suspect some investors may just be preparing for a soft data.

Nick Ferres, Chief Investment Officer of Singapore's Vantage Point Asset Management.

The ISM Manufacturing Index poured cold water on the benign growth outlook. Despite the stock market's enthusiastic response to dovish rate expectations... a series of key leading indicators suggest that the macroeconomic situation may deteriorate further in the future. In this context, the valuation multiples, stock and credit premiums of the S&P 500 Index are not sufficient to compensate for the risks. We are concerned that another retreat phase may occur in the coming weeks.

Jun Bei Liu, Portfolio Manager at Tribeca in Sydney.

A part of investors' profits is decreasing. The stock market doesn't have a fundamental problem. If anything, things actually look quite good. The Federal Reserve has already started preparing for a 25 basis point rate cut, and there will be many more to come. The economy is slowing down, but it is not collapsing. In the coming months, we may see yields bottoming out, and there will be many investment opportunities for investors.

Steven Leung, Executive Director of Institutional Sales at UOB KayHian in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong is quite weak, so whenever we see negative signals from the USA, Hong Kong's performance will be worse.

People believe that the current situation is different from August due to the lifting of the yen carry trade. This time, it's not for that reason but because of the US economy. This is even more frightening because it's not a technical issue, but a more fundamental problem.

Jason Teh, Chief Investment Officer of Sydney Vertium Asset Management

The problem is how fast the economy will slow down when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, because if they lag behind the curve, the market will continue to sell off. It's like walking a tightrope right now as the market tries to find answers.

When you see Nvidia as a market leader, even though the company's profits are very strong, it didn't hold up. As the saying goes, if the army doesn't listen to the general's command, it's a warning sign... If Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft can't support the market, then we're entering a bear market.

Michael Arone, Chief Strategist at CFRA in Boston

We expect the market to continue its shift from tech stocks leading to a broader market. This is because interest rates and inflation are both declining, which will help narrow the profit growth gap between the technology sector and other sectors in the market.

Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA in New York

"I believe investors are simply succumbing to seasonal factors, as they are concerned about a dual decline in September and October election years, so they are buying profitable stocks."

"This may be a short week, but it will be an important and crucial week for investor confidence; people will continue to be nervous."

Steve Sosnick, Market Strategist at Greenwich Interactive Brokers in Connecticut

"Today, the aftermath of Nvidia's earnings release continues, and last week's earnings were good, exceeding expectations once again, but the magnitude of the earnings surprises with each quarterly report is gradually shrinking, and investors have also noticed this."

"People are concerned that the employment data will show a seasonal trend. That's why the volatility index is high. I don't think the ISM data, which shows a weakening manufacturing but rising prices, is of any help."

Michael Green, Portfolio Manager at Simplify in the San Francisco Bay Area

"People have been overly invested in Nvidia and many similar companies' stocks, and they are trying to reduce this risk. These stocks are likely to be heavily sold off."

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs also expressed its view on the stock market decline. Data from Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Desk shows that although September is traditionally a weak month, there is no clear evidence of a sell-off in the stock market.

Goldman Sachs' Vice President of Multi-Asset Platform Sales, Michael Nocerino, wrote in a report, "However, there are negative factors that contradict the bullish claims, and these factors combined may explain today's plunge." He pointed out several reasons for this weakness:

He believes that the data performance is poor, with three key sub-indexes of the ISM Manufacturing Index still in the contraction range, and construction spending has also experienced negative growth, "bad is bad."

In addition, liquidity is not good, and Nasdaq 100 index futures are basically at their lowest point of the year so far. The market reversed after the close of trading last Friday. The S&P 500 Index had its third worst day of the year and has been so since July.

He said, "We expect to issue about $5 billion in bonds next week. After the close on Tuesday, we calculated $3.2 billion."

In addition, Commodity Trading Advisors, who engage in single-stock futures and derivatives trading, are "turning to selling."

He also mentioned that the yen may not be used for carry trades. According to Bloomberg, Arif Husain, the Head of Fixed Income at T. Rowe Price, sounded the alarm on Japan's interest rates early last year, describing it as the "financial San Andreas Fault."

At the same time, with the next regulatory window expected to start on September 13th, repos will slow down.

Investors are putting a lot of money into the chip sector. This is due to factors such as the remaining supply related to Nvidia's financial report, and the negative seasonality of semiconductors (lower every September since 2020). There are reports that OpenAI is developing new internal chips and "realigning ledgers before busier micro data points." Additionally, $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$ The financial report will be released soon, $Citigroup (C.US)$ The global technology conference will also start.

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The translation is provided by third-party software.


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