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《市評》港股續向下 「三桶油」及金礦股捱沽

"Shi Ping" Hong Kong stocks continue to decline, "Three Barrels of Oil" and gold mining stocks all suffer from selling pressure.

AASTOCKS ·  Sep 4 17:07

The market is worried about the prospects of the US economy and the pressure on US technology stocks. Nvidia (NVDA.US) plummeted more than 9% the night before, falling by over 4% in Japan today (4th), and continued to decline in the Hong Kong stock market. The U.S. August ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 47.2, lower than expected, and the Dow and Nasdaq both fell 1.5% and 3.3% respectively on the night of the 3rd, at the time of writing, the yield on U.S. 2-year bonds fell to 3.843 basis points, the yield on U.S. 10-year bonds rose to 3.818 basis points, and the US dollar index fell to the level of 101.65. The latest Dow futures fell 77 points or 0.2%, and Nasdaq futures fell by 0.56%. China's August Caixin Services PMI fell to 51.6, slightly below expectations, employment contracted again, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 18 points or 0.67% to close at 2,784 points, the lowest close in nearly seven months, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.5%, and the total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets amounted to nearly 559.4 billion yuan.

Hang Seng Index opened low, fluctuated soft, and fell to 17,333 points, a drop of 318 points at one point, closing at 17,457 points for the day, a drop of 194 points or 1.1%, with a three-day consecutive decline (accumulating 531 points or 3%); the national index fell 69 points or 1.1% for the day, closing at 6,133 points; the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 13 points or 0.4%, closing at 3,482 points. The total turnover of the market for the day was 96.982 billion yuan. Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800.HK) fell by 1.1% to close at 18.08 yuan for the day, with a turnover of 10.9 billion yuan, while New World Development (00017.HK) fell by 3.5%.

Worries about economic prospects: 'Three oil companies' under pressure.

Tech stocks performed individually. It is reported that Taobao plans to add WeChat payment function, Tencent (00700.HK) fell by 1.4%, Alibaba-W (09988.HK) closed at 80.1 yuan. Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) rose by 1.7%, JD.com-SW (09618.HK) rose by 0.9%. Meituan-W (03690.HK) upgraded the Prosperity Plan, investing hundreds of billions of yuan to support dining merchants, and the stock price edged up by 0.3%.

The expected return of Libyan oil supply to the market caused international oil prices to fall, with all 'Three oil companies' reporting a drop. CNOOC (00883.HK) fell by 6.4%, being the worst-performing blue chip stock. PetroChina (00857.HK) fell by 6.1%. Sinopec (00386.HK) fell by 2.5%. Goldman Sachs recently released a report stating that attention should be paid to the significant price flexibility of copper on the supply and demand side in the summer. Therefore, the bank's previous estimates of significant reduction in copper inventory are expected to occur later than originally anticipated. The bank's forecast for copper prices next year was reduced to $10,100 per ton, well below the original forecast of 0.015 million US dollars (implying a decrease of 32.7%), and the bank has postponed the original year-end target of $120,000 per ton until after 2025.

Pressure on gold mining stocks: Over a thousand stocks fell.

The Hong Kong stock market turned weak today, with a rise-fall ratio of 12:28 for main board stocks (compared to 19:22 the previous day), 1,189 stocks fell (a decrease of 2.7%), 17 constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index rose today, 59 constituent stocks fell, with a rise-fall ratio of 21:72 (compared to 40:55 the previous day); the market recorded short selling of 12.347 billion yuan today, accounting for 14.764% of the turnover of short-selling stocks of 83.626 billion yuan (compared to 17.127% the previous day).

Pressure on gold mining stocks: Zhaojin (02899.HK) fell by 6.2%, Chi Silver Group (00815.HK) fell by 3.6%. Lingbao Gold (03330.HK) and Zijin Mining (01818.HK) also fell by 2.4% and 2.8% respectively. Copper-related stocks suffered, with Jiangxi Copper (00358.HK) falling by 2.4%, MMG (01208.HK) falling by 4.2%, and Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK) plunging by 6%. Goldman Sachs recently published a report indicating significant price flexibility for copper on the supply and demand side during the summer. Therefore, the bank had previously expected a significant reduction in copper inventory to occur later than originally anticipated. The bank's forecast for copper prices next year has been reduced to $10,100 per ton, well below the original forecast of $150,000 per ton (a decrease of 32.7%), and has postponed the original year-end target of $120,000 per ton until after 2025.

The bank stated that it has a short-term preference for gold, which is an ideal instrument for hedging geopolitical and financial risks, and the imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and ongoing gold purchases by the European Central Bank provide support. The bank maintains a target price for gold of $2,700 per ounce next year and proposes long positions in gold.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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