As Harris takes over from Biden to officially become the Democratic candidate, the US election has entered a heated stage.
On September 10, 2024, the first televised debate will be held for the US presidential election after the Democratic Party's "change of leadership". Vice President Harris, who has been nominated as the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party, and former President Trump, who is of the Republican Party, will face each other for the first time.
From the current election situation, Harris leads Trump in the polls, but the advantage is not strong. As of the time of publication, Harris has a 1.9% lead over Trump (48.1% vs 46.2%).
However, according to the betting data in the gambling market, Trump's probability of winning is slightly higher than Harris (51% vs 48%).
Overall, the current election is still evenly matched between the two sides. In this evenly matched situation, the debate between Trump and Harris organized by ABC on the evening of September 10th is particularly important and may even have a decisive impact on the election result.
As investors, we are more concerned about what changes this debate will bring to the capital markets. Who will come out on top, the 'Trump trade' or the 'Harris trade'?
Zheshang Securities believes that whether it is the 'Trump trade' or the 'Harris trade', they are essentially forward-looking reactions of the market to the potential economic impact of their future governing policies, which are closely related to their policy agendas.
Jefferies, a well-known Wall Street investment bank, has analyzed the policy proposals of Trump and Harris and the potential impact of these policies on different industries and companies.
Under the 'Trump trade', Trump will continue his relatively tough immigration policy, advocate for trade protectionism and tariffs, support ending the war in Ukraine as soon as possible, advocate for tax cuts, and support traditional energy and technological innovation, among other things. Jefferies has identified stocks that are expected to benefit under the 'Trump trade':
Bullish: $AGCO (AGCO.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Deere & Company(DE.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$US Steel (X.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$ConocoPhillips (COP.US)$N/A.$Norfolk Southern (NSC.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$ebay(EBAY.US)$ Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Etsy Inc(etsy inc)$ fell 1%, and Amazon's stock price extended its gains. The stock price of PDD Holdings fell 1.3%, while Etsy's stock price remained roughly flat.N/A.Microchip Technology (MCHP.US).Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Investors who only hold long positions are overallocated in stocks including Microchip Technology, On Semiconductor, Texas Instruments and Qualcomm (QCOM.US), while hedge funds are most overallocated in stocks including Teradyne, Qualcomm, Micron (MU.US), Cadence Design Systems, and Qorvo.Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Affirm Holdings.Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Amgen (AMGN.US)Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$British American Tobacco (BTI.US)$N/A.Altria Group (MO.US) Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.bought more shares of Discover Financial Services (DFS.US)Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Enova (ENVA.US)$ 、 $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$JPMorgan (JPM.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Vertex Pharmaceuticals(VRTX.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Ford Motor (F.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$General Motors (GM.US)$.Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Merck (MRK.US)Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN.US) And other companies;
Previously, the bank also listed bearish stocks: Analog Devices (ADI.US)Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Albemarle (ALB.US)Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Progressive (PGR.US) Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$te connectivity(TEL.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$HCA Healthcare(HCA.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Barrick Gold (GOLD.US)$ Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Google-A (GOOGL.US) also had two splits, the most recent being in 2022. Nvidia is about to undergo its sixth split since 2000.Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Meta Platforms (META.US)$ According to documents filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), some of the most prominent actions Third Point took in the second quarter, respectively, were to establish positions, shareholding of and more.
Harris advocates for tax increases, a cautious attitude towards technological innovation, support for the new energy industry, a cautious stance towards the technology industry, or a shift towards "balance," a more proactive policy in housing security, a commitment to expanding government healthcare plans, and support for teacher salary increases. Jefferies has outlined the stocks expected to benefit from Harris' presidency.
Bullish: $Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Palo Alto Networks$.Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$cleveland-cliffs (CLF.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Nucor (NUE.US)Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.At the same time, the fund increased holdings in five stocks in the second quarter, including increasing its holding of Technology stocks from 0.5 million shares to 2.1 million shares, and increasing its holding of Cinemark shares from 5 million shares to 7 million shares, and increasing its holding of Taiwan Semiconductor shares from 1.18 million shares to 2.03 million shares.Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.BHP Group LtdPlease use your Futubull account to access the feature.$te connectivity(TEL.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$First Solar (FSLR.US)$ And other companies;
Previously, the bank also listed bearish stocks:$Costco (COST.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Hershey (HSY.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Kellanova (K.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Procter & GamblePlease use your Futubull account to access the feature.Including major retailers such as Target, retailers launched promotional shopping activities throughout July, attracting customers by providing huge discounts and competing with Amazon's sales activities.Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Walmart (WMT.US)$andAdobe (ADBE.US)Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.bought more shares of Discover Financial Services (DFS.US)Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Google-A (GOOGL.US) also had two splits, the most recent being in 2022. Nvidia is about to undergo its sixth split since 2000.Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.the cigna groupPlease use your Futubull account to access the feature.$CVS Health (CVS.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Broadcom(AVGO.US)$ According to documents filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), some of the most prominent actions Third Point took in the second quarter, respectively, were to establish positions, shareholding of and more.
In addition to the above policies, the attitudes of both parties towards the cryptocurrency market are also closely watched by the market. Former SEC General Counsel Ashley Ebersole stated in an interview that Trump and Vice President Harris are expected to express more opinions on cryptocurrencies.
Trump has already expressed support for Bitcoin miners at the 2024 Bitcoin conference, pledging to make the United States a global crypto center. In contrast, Harris's cryptocurrency policy is still being formulated, and she is expected to focus more on this issue.
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