Incident: Bairongyun announced its performance for the first half of 2024. Revenue increased 6% year over year, gross margin increased by 1.1 pp, and net profit to mother fell 32% year on year. Taking into account, we forecast net profit to mother for 2024/2025/2026 of 0.314/0.408/0.478 billion, with a target price of HK$11.8, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Report summary
The MaaS business gradually recovered, and the BaaS business achieved rapid growth. Through underlying technologies such as generative AI and decision-making AI, the company continued to expand its business in vertical markets and achieved steady revenue growth. 2024H1 revenue recorded 1.321 billion yuan, an increase of 6% over the previous year. Among them, the MaaS business charges service fees or annual fees based on inquiry volume. Revenue for the first half of the year fell slightly by 2% to 0.421 billion yuan, but since June, it has gradually recovered. The number of core customers increased by 19 to 165, and the average contribution revenue of core customers was 1.996 million yuan; the BaaS business collected fees based on the size of transactions facilitated, and recorded revenue of 0.9 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 11% year on year. Among them, cloud revenue in the financial industry increased 20% to 20% year on year 0.589 billion yuan, mainly due to the rapid increase in transaction scale driven by improved operational efficiency and enhanced generative AI capabilities. The insurance industry's cloud revenue fell 3% year over year to 0.311 billion yuan, mainly due to the weakness of the insurance industry and the consistency of reporting commissions and actual payment of commissions due to the impact of new industry regulations on the industry. As the business continues to expand, the company's gross margin further increased by 1.1 pp to 73.19%. At the same time, the company continues to expand new customers, and the customer structure is more diversified. In addition to finance and insurance, revenue from customers in non-financial institutions such as Internet technology, takeout, and travel also continues to rise. Currently, non-financial customers account for about 1/3. Profit declined significantly in the first half of the year, mainly due to a significant increase in option fees. Adjusted net profit excluding the impact of option fees was 0.197 billion yuan, down 13% year on year.
Continued investment in AI research and development, and continued to enrich application scenarios. Based on the deep learning Transformer framework, BaiRong integrates diverse AI technology algorithms to create AI application products positioned in vertical scenarios. The company successfully combined an intelligent voice application with a large model, and reduced the interaction delay based entirely on the big model to less than 500 ms, which is more than 1 second lower than the industry average. For the future long-term layout, the company's large model will further enrich modal support. Combined with 3D digital human intelligent voice interaction hardware, the first commercial version has now been developed, which will be widely used in various application scenarios such as bank lobby reception and retail department store shopping guides. In the future, the company will also continue to increase AI research and development, continue to introduce AI talents, and promote more application scenarios and commercial implementation.
Investment advice: The company's R&D in AI continues to deepen, the product matrix is getting richer, and two-wheel drive in the MaaS and BaaS business drives performance growth. Based on comprehensive considerations, we forecast net profit due to mother for 2024/2025/2026 of 0.314/0.408/0.478 billion yuan (adjusted net profit excluding option fees was 0.402/0.448/0.518 billion yuan, up 7%/11%/16% year over year). P/E corresponds to the current stock price of 11.17/8.60/7.34 times, and the valuation is relatively attractive. Referring to industry performance, 16 times PE was given in 2024, corresponding to a target price of HK$11.8, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: industry competition increases risk; regulatory risk; data and information security risk.