Investment strategy: Shanghai Stock Exchange this weekComprehensive index-11.54%, of which steel plate-9.29%. Out of cautious expectations of the financial environment, we reported last weekend.Stock marketSinging the Commodity on the stage "has downgraded the industry investment rating, and the game in the short and medium term is mainly a wave band rebound opportunity andReform of state-owned enterprisesWith regard to the structural opportunities of the theme, we will maintain our investment rating at a neutral level before the emergence of trend opportunities. In terms of industry fundamentals, although the inflection point of medium-and short-term demand has yet to be confirmed, it is not appropriate to be too bearish here, because switching in the off-peak season, infrastructure underpinning and real estate price increases are positive factors in the future demand side. therefore, black goods should pay attention to low long opportunities.

Domestic steel prices: steel prices are weakening and consolidation this week. This week, steel prices fluctuated in a narrow range after a sharp rise in the previous period, and prices weakened. The impact of supply contraction caused by environmental protection factors on the trend of steel prices tends to weaken, the traditional "gold nine silver ten"ConsumptionThe peak season is approaching, whether the demand can quickly keep up with the general will determine the trend of steel prices in the later stage. Considering that the current inventory is still low compared with previous years, and the later demand rebounds and overlaps the inventory cycle, there may still be room for steel prices to rise.

Inventory: rebar inventory in Shanghai this week is 194900 tons, up 1900 tons from last week, while hot rolling inventory is 751200 tons, up 500 tons from last week. From a nationwide point of view, the inventory of various varieties decreased month-on-month, with Mysteel statistics showing a total social inventory of 10.7613 million tons, a decrease of 244400 tons. The speed of going to the warehouse this week continues to be maintained at the level of 250000 tons. At present, steel prices are in a period of phased adjustment, market transactions are relatively light, and traders are mainly active shipments. Before the peak demand season, the speed of going to the warehouse is expected to remain low.

International steel price: the international steel price is weak this week. Steel prices in the United States continue to decline, with abundant stocks in the market and no improvement in demand, most buyers are in a wait-and-see state, and market turnover is light; European steel prices remain weak, and the market has been seasonally weak. Downstream purchasing willingness continues to decline while demand is low, coupled with increasing pressure on import resources from countries such as China, CIS and South Korea, steel prices continue to be under pressure.

Raw materials: mineral prices are consolidated this week. The spot price of 66% iron concentrate powder in Hebei is 575 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous month.Tianjin PortThe price of 63.5% grade Indian iron ore is 430 yuan / ton, down 5 yuan / ton from the previous month. Platts index (62%) 56.25dollarPer ton, the ring fell by 0.25 US dollars / ton. Under the influence of the "military parade", the scope of production and maintenance of steel mills is limited, and the downstream demand of iron ore has no obvious impact. This week, iron ore port inventories across the country fell 630000 tons month-on-month, and the volume is still considerable. At present, the mineral price is already at the bottom of the stage, and the falling space is limited. Under the influence of "Jinjiu Silver Ten", if the downstream demand picks up in the later period, the operating rate of steel mills is expected to increase, and the mineral price may continue to fluctuate and rise.Market price.