Caixin reported on September 4th (Editor Hu Jiarong) that affected by the sharp drop in international oil prices overnight, PetroChina (00857.HK), CNOOC (00883.HK), and Sino Oil & Gas (00702.HK) fell by 5.92%, 5.41%, and 4.76% respectively.

Note: Performance of petroleum stocks.

On the news side, American WTI crude oil futures fell by 5.16% on Tuesday, closing at $69.90. It fell by 0.63% as of the time of writing today.

Note: The trend of American WTI crude oil futures.

Regarding the oil price pullback, it may be related to the uncertain global demand outlook and the news of possible production increases by OPEC+. Firstly, reports indicate that there is no sign of accelerated import demand from China, Europe, or North America, indicating that the oil market will not be as tight as expected several months ago.

Secondly, as the news of possible production increases by OPEC+ continues to ferment, the market's confidence in the reduction support for oil prices by Saudi Arabia and others is gradually weakening. In addition, since 2024, the basic stability of crude oil production during the implementation of production cuts has reduced hopes for Saudi Arabia and others to extend or increase the production cuts.

In addition to the above news, two sets of manufacturing indicators released by the United States last night both showed that the US factory was still in a slowdown mode in August, intensifying concerns about the economic outlook. ISM Manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for the fifth consecutive month, indicating that manufacturing economic activity has cooled for five consecutive months. S&P Global's manufacturing PMI for August was revised downward from 48 to 47.9, with the market originally expecting an adjustment to 48.1. This number was 49.6 in July.

In addition, Goldman Sachs recently lowered its expectations for the international crude oil price benchmark, Brent crude oil price. It is currently expected that the Brent crude oil price will fluctuate between $70 and $85 per barrel in 2025, with an average price of about $77. This range is $5 lower than Goldman Sachs' previous expectations. In contrast, the current Brent crude oil futures price is trading around $79, and Goldman Sachs' latest expectations mean that Brent crude oil may continue to be weak throughout 2025.