①Senior financial strategist Bill Bryan said that Nvidia's stocks are sending a "sell" signal to investors; ②Nvidia's stock price plummeted 9.53% on Tuesday, causing its market cap to "evaporate" by about $279 billion (approximately RMB 1.99 trillion) in a single day, setting a new record in the US stock market; ③The massive valuation of Nvidia may also indicate the peak of the US stock market.
CLS news September 4th (Editor: Bian Chun) Wind Shift Capital founder and senior financial strategist Bill Bryan said that Nvidia's stocks are sending a "sell" signal to investors.
Bryan stated in a report on Tuesday that Nvidia's sky-high valuation has made many of its employees extremely wealthy. He mentioned a recent survey that found that 40% of Nvidia employees have a net worth between 1 million and 20 million US dollars, and 37% of employees have a net worth exceeding 20 million US dollars.
Bryan stated that as a result, less than a third of Nvidia employees are "facing real financial pressure" every day. He wrote in the report:
"Do you think that the poor quarter of Nvidia employees would really work hard to protect their wealth and status for those who are already wealthy and highly motivated? Do they think Nvidia's stock price will rise another 700%?
Compared to their colleagues and bosses, would they be willing to remain extremely poor? Or, more likely, does the massive wealth in the office mean that less wealthy but still highly motivated employees will find better opportunities to accumulate wealth elsewhere?"
Just as Bryan issued the above warning, accompanied by a collective decline in large-cap tech stocks, Nvidia's stock price plummeted 9.53% on Tuesday, causing its market cap to "evaporate" by about $279 billion (approximately RMB 1.99 trillion) in a single day, setting a new record in the US stock market.
On the same day, news broke that the US Department of Justice had issued a subpoena to Nvidia in search of evidence that the AI chip giant violated antitrust laws.
Since last Wednesday's earnings announcement, Nvidia's stock price has continued to decline, highlighting concerns among investors about the company's overvaluation and slowing revenue growth. However, the stock price of Nvidia has still risen by 124% since the beginning of the year.
The bull market in the US stock market has reached its peak.
Brian also stated that Nvidia's massive valuation may also indicate the top of the broader stock market. He believes that although investors expect a significant interest rate cut in the next year, the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy may be limited, and he believes that interest rates of 4%-6% will become the new normal in the market.
"Some people believe that the interest rate cut promised by the Federal Reserve later this month will bring endless joy to the market. (I believe this may still be a selling fact moment)." Brian said. "Many, including myself, believe that the new long-term economic cycle may reverse the situation of weakening inflationary pressure over the past 40 years."
Brian said that the current long-term cycle in the market began in the 1980s, when inflation steadily declined after a difficult period in the previous decade. He said that the market could enter a new cycle as early as 2025, and pointed out that geopolitical tensions, commodity prices, and the increasing scale of US debt are bringing inflationary pressures.
"I just found the best reason to sell Nvidia and confirmed that we are at the top of the market. What will happen next? Will we see a 20-year inflation, rising interest rates, and a global super cycle of commodities as countries scramble for future strategic resources?"
Some other strategists also warned that despite the decline in inflation from its peak in 2022, inflationary pressures will continue to exist. BlackRock strategists have previously predicted a possible resurgence of inflation, pointing out the risk of a significant rise in oil prices and the imbalance of supply and demand in the US economy.