1) 总量：销量稳健向上，产品结构持续优化。根据公司产销快报，24H1公司销售新车56.0 万辆，同比+8%；其中Q2 销售新车28.4 万辆，同比-5%，环比+3%。公司24Q2 高端品牌坦克的销量达到6.7 万辆，占国内批发销量的24%，同比+12pct，环比+6pct。Key points of investment:
Great Wall Motors released its 2024 semi-annual report. The company achieved revenue of 91.4 billion yuan in 2024H1, +31% year-on-year; net profit to mother was 7.1 billion yuan, +420% year-on-year. Among them, 24Q2 achieved revenue of 48.6 billion yuan, or +19% month-on-month; net profit to mother of 3.9 billion yuan, +224% year-on-year and +19% month-on-month; and 24Q2 net profit to mother was close to the upper limit of the performance forecast.
Product structure optimization, overseas sales growth, two-wheel drive profitability improvement. According to our estimates, 24Q2 bike revenue was about 0.171 million yuan, +0.034 million yuan year over year, and +0.015 million yuan month over month. Judging from the gross profit level, the company's 24Q2 gross profit margin was 21.4%, +3.9 pct year over year, and +1.3 pct month over month. We believe that product structure optimization and overseas sales increase two-wheel drive companies' ASP and gross profit levels:
1) Total volume: Sales volume is rising steadily, and the product structure is continuously optimized. According to the company's production and sales report, 24H1 sold 0.56 million new cars, +8% year over year; of these, Q2 sold 0.284 million new cars, -5% year-on-year and +3% month-on-month. The company's 24Q2 high-end brand tank sales reached 0.067 million vehicles, accounting for 24% of domestic wholesale sales, +12pct year over year, and +6pct month-on-month.
2) Overseas business: Globalization is accelerating, and overseas sales are increasing. According to Great Wall Motor's 2024 semi-annual report, the company exported 0.2 million new vehicles in 24H1, +62% year-on-year, accounting for 36% of total sales. 24H1's overseas revenue reached 36.8 billion yuan, +78% year-on-year. In terms of overseas layout, as of 24H1, Great Wall Motor has covered 170+ countries and regions, and expanded 1,300+ overseas sales channels. According to Great Wall Motor's 2024 semi-annual report, Great Wall Motor's share of overseas high-end models has been rising steadily.
The fee rate decreased year on year, and the 24Q2 net interest rate increased year on month. According to Great Wall Motor's 2024 semi-annual report, the company's 24Q2 sales/management/R&D expense rates were 4.3%/2.1%/4.6%, respectively, -0.1/-0.4/-0.3pct year-on-year, and +0.4/-0.3/+0.0pct. 24Q2 The reason for the month-on-month increase in sales expenses is commissions, that is, the month-on-month increase in rebate fees for overseas dealers. 24Q2 net profit margin 7.9%, +5.0pct yoy, +0.4pct month-on-month.
Profit forecast and investment advice: Considering the company's competitive advantage, we expect the company to sell around 1.45 million new vehicles in 2024, +18% over the same period last year. The company's revenue for 2024/2025/2026 is estimated to be about 223.9/266.5/300.1 billion yuan, net profit to mother is about 13.6/16.2/19.1 billion yuan, and EPS is 1.59/1.90/2.24 yuan, respectively. The company's closing market value on September 3, 2024 was 14/12/10 times the 2024/2025/2026 PE. Referring to comparable companies, we gave the company 20-24 times PE in 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 31.54-37.85 yuan. Maintain an “better than the market” rating.
Risk warning: Sales of new energy vehicles fell short of expectations, and raw material prices rose sharply.
