Interesting enough, looking back at the market of the past few decades, September is not only a bad month for US stocks, but also for assets such as gold and bitcoin.

The opening of September this year is clearly chilling for various cross-asset traders, as they feel the chilling atmosphere of the 'September curse'.

Market data shows that as of Tuesday's close, the S&P 500 index fell 2.4% throughout the day, marking the biggest decline since 'Black Monday' on August 5th. Nine out of the eleven sectors in the S&P 500 index fell, with technology, energy, communications services, and materials sectors experiencing the largest decline.

The VIX Index, also known as the 'fear index,' soared 33.2% on Tuesday to reach 20.72, the highest single-day increase and the highest closing level since early August. Although the increase in the 'fear index' this time is not as shocking as on 'Black Monday' last month (when it soared to above 65 at one point), the sudden surge in less than a month undoubtedly led to another round of significant margin calls for many volatility bears.

Compared to the S&P 500 index, the bigger loser in the market on Tuesday was undoubtedly the Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks. The Nasdaq plummeted 577.33 points, a decline of 3.26%, to close at 17,136.30 points. This is also the largest decline for the Nasdaq since August 5th, and the third largest single-day decline in the past year.

At the same time, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF with a size of up to $22 billion experienced its largest decline since March 2020 on Tuesday.

Among the tech giants that have led the market this year, Nvidia's stock price plummeted 9.5% overnight. The company's market cap evaporated by about $279 billion in just one day, setting the record for the largest single-day market cap loss in the history of US companies, surpassing Meta's market cap loss record after the bleak financial report in February 2022. It is reported that the US Department of Justice has issued subpoenas to Nvidia and other companies to seek evidence of antitrust violations by the chip manufacturer.

According to Paul Nolte, market strategist and senior wealth management manager at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management, Nvidia and AI stocks have been market stars for a while now, and it is expected that the temporary hype will subside. The investment return on all these expenditures remains a big question.

Recently, a more apparent trend is that market participants are starting to have more doubts about whether the huge investments by tech companies in hardware for AI computing can be sustained. While Nvidia and other chip manufacturers have seen a surge in revenue, the revenue of companies like Microsoft and Google has not grown significantly due to AI investments, and the market is concerned that their high investments will not last too long.

In addition to the performance challenges faced by leading industries and individual stocks, the poor performance of US economic data at the macro level is clearly a key negative factor that is dragging down market trading sentiment at the beginning of this crucial 'non-farm payroll week'.

Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Tuesday showed that although the US ISM manufacturing index for August slightly improved from its eight-month low in July, it still remains well below the dividing line of 50. The August ISM manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) recorded 47.2, up 0.4 points from July's 46.8, but still below the market's initial expectation of 47.5.

Currently, the ISM manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for the fifth consecutive month, indicating that economic activity in the manufacturing sector has cooled down for five months in a row. Looking further ahead, in the past 22 months, the PMI has been below 50 for 21 months, with only one instance in March this year recording a PMI of 50.3.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, wrote that the further decline in PMI data indicates an increased drag on the economy from the manufacturing sector in the middle of the third quarter. Leading indicators suggest that this drag may intensify in the coming months. Slower-than-expected sales have led to a backlog of unsold inventory, and the lack of new orders has prompted factories to cut production for the first time since January. In response to concerns about overcapacity, manufacturers have also started to lay off workers and reduce the purchasing of inputs.

"The combination of reduced orders and rising inventories sends one of the gloomiest forward-looking signals for production trends in the past year and a half, and is one of the most worrying signals since the global financial crisis," Williamson said.

It is worth noting that Tuesday's market "earthquake" was clearly not limited to stocks: commodities were also hit - Brent crude oil prices plunged nearly 5% at one point, falling below $74, wiping out all gains made since 2024, and WTI crude oil approached $70 per barrel...

People are worried that while restarting the oil supply in Libya, the global economy may be difficult to escape the fate of recession. This has left many commodity market traders without time to consider the potential geopolitical risks around the world.

Even one of the best-performing commodity assets in 2024, gold, was not spared from Tuesday's big drop. After trading above $2,500 for most of the past two weeks, gold fell below that level overnight.

Of course, if we talk about which type of assets benefited from the safe-haven sentiment in the market on Tuesday, perhaps it would be non-US bonds. US bond yields fell across the board on Tuesday, with the 10-year US bond yield, known as the anchor of global asset pricing, falling 7.6 basis points to 3.838%, and the 2-year US bond yield falling 5.8 basis points to 3.873%.

Looking ahead, investors will receive a series of data on the labor market in the remaining time this week, with the key non-farm payrolls report on Friday undoubtedly receiving the most attention.

According to pricing in the interest rate swap market, traders currently expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by more than two basis points over the next 12 months, the largest cut outside of an economic recession since the 1980s. Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman of BMO Capital Markets said that the terrifying scenario after last month's rise in the unemployment rate will leave traders "nervous."

"Although this week's employment report is not the sole determining factor, it may be a key factor in the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points," said Jason Pride and Michael Reynolds of Glenmede. "Even a modest signal in this week's employment report could be a decisive point for the Fed in choosing a more cautious or more aggressive approach."