8 月销量环比提高，智驾技术有望带动销量增长。长城汽车1-8月产品结构持续优化，据长城汽车公众号，长城1-8 月20 万元以上车型销售18.4 万辆，同比+39.8%，其中8 月20 万元以上车型占比达到22.2%。坦克品牌8 月销售1.6 万辆，同比+11.4%，销量占比17.3%，同比+4.4pct，1-8 月累计销量15.1 万辆，同比+74.7%。同时，新一代哈弗H6 持续上量作用下，8 月哈弗品牌销量环比恢复6.1%，对应销量5.6 万辆，二代哈弗H9 已开启预售，预计随新产品交付，哈弗品牌销量有望进一步提升。8 月新能源销量2.5 万辆，同/环比分别为-5.5%/+2.9%，销量占比达到26.3%，同环比分别为+3.2pct/-0.1pct。8 月成都车展亮相20 余款车型。此外，长城首款NOA 智能六座旗舰SUV 魏牌全新蓝山于8 月21 日上市，24 小时大定达8571 台；后续随智驾技术在全品牌产品上的逐渐推出，智驾技术提升有望带动销量新增长。Incidents:
On September 1, 2024, Great Wall Motor released its August production and sales report: The company achieved automobile sales of 0.094 million vehicles in August, which was -17.2%/+3.5% month-on-month, respectively. A total of 0.745 million vehicles were sold from January to August 2024. In August, the Haval brand achieved sales of 0.056 million vehicles, -15.6%/+6.1% month-on-month; the WEY brand achieved sales of 3001 units, which were -46.6%/+8.5%, respectively; the Great Wall Pickup achieved sales of 0.014 million vehicles, -19.5%/+14.1% month-on-month, respectively; the Euler brand achieved sales of 5151 vehicles, which were -49.5%/+7.8% month-on-month respectively; the tank brand achieved sales of 0.016 million vehicles +11.4%/-12.5%.
Investment highlights:
Sales increased month-on-month in August, and smart driving technology is expected to drive sales growth. Great Wall Motor's product structure continued to be optimized in January-August. According to Great Wall Motor's official account, in January-August, Great Wall sold 0.184 million vehicles of 0.2 million yuan or more, +39.8% compared with the same period last year, with models over 0.2 million yuan accounting for 22.2% in August. The tank brand sold 0.016 million vehicles in August, +11.4% year on year, accounting for 17.3% of sales, +4.4pct year on year. The cumulative sales volume for January-August was 0.151 million vehicles, +74.7% year over year. Meanwhile, under the influence of the new generation Haval H6, sales of the Haval brand recovered 6.1% month-on-month in August, corresponding to sales volume of 0.056 million vehicles. Pre-sales of the second-generation Haval H9 have already started. It is expected that with the delivery of new products, the Haval brand sales will increase further. New energy sales in August were 0.025 million vehicles, -5.5%/+2.9% month-on-month respectively, accounting for 26.3% of sales, and +3.2pct/-0.1pct, respectively. More than 20 models were unveiled at the Chengdu Auto Show in August. In addition, the new Weipai Blue Mountain, the first NOA smart six-seater flagship SUV of Great Wall, was launched on August 21, reaching 8,571 units within 24 hours; with the gradual introduction of smart driving technology in all brand products, improvements in smart driving technology are expected to drive new sales growth.
Overseas business continues to expand, and ecological overseas expansion is progressing steadily. Overseas sales of 0.04 million vehicles in August were +31.6%/+5.9% YoY respectively, exports in August accounted for 42.8%, and +15.9pct/+1.0pct, YoY respectively, a record high. Great Wall ecology has progressed steadily, and many products were launched overseas in August. Haval, Euler, Tank, and Great Wall Artillery were unveiled at the press conference in Uruguay, and the Tank 300, Weipai Blue Mountain, and the co-branded Euler Good Cat GT were unveiled in Brazil. At the same time, Haval H6 and Ola Good Cat won many awards in Brazil, further improving their reputation.
Profit forecast and investment rating The company's tank brand and export sales trend is positive, and profit certainty is high. With future product launches, the company's overall sales trend is improving. The company is expected to achieve operating income of 222.5, 260.7, and 287.1 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 17%, and 10%; achieving net profit to mother of 13.04, 16.33, and 18.96 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 86%, 25%, and 16%; EPS is 1.53, 1.91, 2.22 yuan. PE valuations corresponding to the current stock price are 15, 12, and 10 times, respectively. We expect the company's future revenue and other performance indicators to continue to improve, optimistic about the company's future development, and maintain the “gain” rating.
Risks suggest that the automobile (NEV) market sales growth rate falls short of expectations; the new vehicle development process falls short of expectations; international market demand is unstable; exchange rate fluctuations risk; overseas market business development falls short of expectations due to geopolitical factors; and the progress of intelligent development falls short of expectations.