二季度单季利润环比回升，弱市中凸显盈利韧性。1）2024H 国泰君安实现营业收入170.70亿元，同比-6.9%，归属净利润50.16 亿元，同比-12.6%；分业务条线来看，公司经纪、投行、资管、利息、自营、其他收入分别为30.78、11.66、19.21、10.43、50.64、47.98亿元，同比分别-12.1%、-24.7%、-8.1%、-32.2%、-6.1%、+12.6%；2）2024Q2 市场整体震荡，万得全A 指数下跌5.3%，公司Q2 单季归属净利润环比+1.5%至25.27 亿元，弱市中仍能维持增长，彰显较强盈利韧性。Description of the event
Guotai Junan released its 2024 mid-year report. During the reporting period, it achieved operating income of 17.07 billion yuan, -6.9% year on year, net profit to mother of 5.016 billion yuan, -12.6% year on year, and a weighted average return on net assets of -0.64 pct to 3.1% year over year.
Incident comments
Single-quarter profits rebounded month-on-month in the second quarter, highlighting profit resilience in weak markets. 1) 2024H Guotai Junan achieved operating income of 17.07 billion yuan, -6.9% year-on-year, and net profit of 5.016 billion yuan, or -12.6%; by business line, the company's brokerage, investment banking, asset management, interest, self-employment, and other revenue were 30.78, 11.66, 19.21, 1.043, 5.064, 4.798 billion yuan, respectively, -12.1%, -32.2%, -6.1%, +12.6% ; 2) The overall 2024Q2 market fluctuated, and the Wandequan A Index fell 5.3%. The company's net profit for Q2 was +1.5% month-on-month to 2.527 billion yuan. It was able to maintain growth in a weak market, showing strong profit resilience.
Market share continues to increase, maintaining the leading position in the industry. In the first half of 2024, the domestic stock base turnover was 115.2 trillion yuan, down 7.6% year on year. The company achieved brokerage revenue of 3.078 billion yuan, -12.1% year-on-year, and the company's brokerage business performance was weaker than the market. Domestic equity trading share was 5.0%, +0.2pct year over year. As of the end of the first half of 2024, sales of financial products were 389.2 billion yuan, +1.9% YoY, and the average monthly holding volume of financial products was 244.2 billion yuan, +6.3% YoY.
Stock and bond underwriting is in a leading position in the industry, and the scale of bond underwriting has increased dramatically. In the first half of 2024, equity financing was 4.851 billion yuan, down 77.5% year on year; bond financing scale was 429.738 billion yuan, up 33.3% year on year. The scale of Cathay Pacific Junan's IPO, refinancing, and bond financing was 2.139, 2.712, and 429.738 billion yuan respectively, -80.4%, -74.5%, and +33.3% year-on-year respectively. Among them, the IPO market share was 7.07%, ranking 6th in the industry; the bond underwriting scale ranked 3rd in the industry.
The scale of asset management has maintained a high increase, and the performance of Huaan Fund has increased. As of the end of the first half of 2024, the company's total asset management scale was 587 billion yuan, +15.9% year-on-year. Among them, the scale of pooled asset management, targeted asset management, dedicated asset management, and public funds was 2,572, 132, 141.5, and 56.4 billion yuan, respectively, +30.2%, -6.6%, +12.8%, and +33.6% year-on-year respectively. At the end of the reporting period, Huaan Fund's management scale was 739.5 billion yuan, +8.8% year-on-year, achieving net profit of 0.519 billion yuan, contributing 4.98% to the Group's net profit, or +0.60pct year-on-year.
The expansion of proprietary assets has slowed down, and it has strong risk control capabilities. By the end of the first half of 2024, the company's financial assets were -0.4% to 430.098 billion yuan, and fund and bond assets were -32% and +13% year-on-year to 76.421 and 241.445 billion yuan, respectively. The company's inventory expansion rate was slowing down. The estimated return on static investment was 1.18%, -0.07pct year over year. The company's net stable capital ratio was +6.30pct to 135.13% at the end of the previous year, and it has strong risk resilience.
In the medium to long term, we are optimistic about the company's continued expansion as an industry leader in the field of institutional brokerage and trading business, relying on resource endowments to gradually develop derivatives and supporting businesses. The net profit attributable to the company in 2024-2025 is estimated to be 100.71 billion yuan and 11.244 billion yuan respectively, corresponding PE is 12.79 and 11.45 times, respectively, and corresponding PB is 0.82 and 0.77 times, respectively, giving a purchase rating.
Risk warning
1. A sharp correction in the equity market;
2. Regulatory policies have been tightened.
