分业务看，公司中央空调H1 营收同比基本持平，结合产业在线数据看Q2 有所承压，反推公司家用空调H1 同比+16%左右，预计Q2 整体实现增长，其中内销小幅波动，外销实现高增；公司冰洗营收H1 同比+27%，预计Q2 整体延续增长，外销增速快于内销。分内外销看，公司24H1 内外销收入分别同比+4%/+28%，自下而上各业务汇总来看，我们预计公司Q2 外销营收同比大幅增长，内销同比小幅下滑。occurrences
Hisense Home Appliances released its 2024 mid-year report: H1 revenue of 48.642 billion, +13.27% year on year, net profit of 2.016 billion, net profit of 1.703 billion, +34.82% year on year; Q2 revenue 25.156 billion, +6.98% year on year, net profit to mother of 1.035 billion, +17.26%, net profit of 0.865 billion year on year, +16.54% year on year.
Export sales are growing rapidly, and domestic sales are under pressure
By business, the company's central air conditioning H1 revenue was basically flat year over year. According to industry online data, Q2 was under pressure, reversing the company's household air conditioner H1 by about +16% year over year. It is expected that Q2 will grow as a whole, with domestic sales fluctuating slightly and export sales achieving high growth; the company's ice washing revenue H1 is +27% year-on-year, and the overall growth rate of export sales is faster than domestic sales. Looking at domestic and foreign sales, the company's 24H1 domestic and foreign sales revenue was +4%/+28%, respectively. Looking at the bottom up business summary, we expect the company's Q2 export revenue to increase sharply year on year, and domestic sales to decline slightly year on year.
Gross profit margin declined, and net profit margin to mother increased
The company's gross margin of 24Q2 is -0.92 pct year over year, which is expected to be mainly due to a decrease in the share of high gross margin central aviation business and an increase in the share of export business with low gross margin; 24Q2 sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios were -0.39/+0.14/+0.62/+1.01pct, respectively. The increase in financial expense ratio was mainly due to a decrease in exchange income; the profit and loss of asset impairment increased year-on-year. The company's 24Q2 net profit and loss due to changes in fair value increased year-on-year, and asset impairment losses decreased. The company's 24Q2 net profit and loss due to changes in fair value increased year-on-year. 0.28pct, so the company's net profit to mother increased over the same period.
Multiple businesses resonate, medium- to long-term growth can be expected
Although the external environment in 24Q2 is under pressure and real estate and consumption performance is weak, the company's Q2 performance is expected to grow by more than 15% as scheduled; in the long run, the company's central aviation business is expected to continue to grow through overseas expansion, channel collaboration and category diversification. The traditional home appliance business is expected to improve product structure, promote independent brands, continue to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and enhance profitability. Sandian is expected to gradually transform NEV thermal management business orders, contributing significant revenue and performance increases in the medium to long term. Overall, the company can be expected to grow in the medium to long term, and there is no need to worry too much about the stability of operations.
Optimistic about the steady growth of the company and maintaining a “buy” rating
Hisense Home Appliance's 24Q2 export sales growth rate is impressive. Independent brands have full potential to go overseas, and profitability is expected to continue to improve based on governance optimization. We expect Hisense Home Appliance's revenue in 2024-2026 to be 94/103.9/115 billion yuan, respectively, +10%/+11%/+11% year on year; net profit to mother was 3.406/3.929/4.519 billion yuan, respectively, +20%/+15%, and EPS respectively 2.46/2.83/3.26 yuan, corresponding PE was 10.7/9.3/8.0, respectively. Overall, the company's “buy” rating was maintained.
Risk warning: 1) Policy implementation falls short of expectations; 2) Tariff expectations disrupt the pace of exports; 3) Raw material costs have risen sharply.
