Yesterday, the price rebounded, but it is only a rebound for now and has not reversed. Therefore, the overall market trend has not changed, it just needs to redefine the structure.

The range of oscillation is expanded, and the lower edge can be focused on around 57000 (yesterday's low point / 4H period potential support / clearing peak).

This has become a price point where both small and large cycles resonate. If the price falls below again, we will still consider shorting on the right side.

The oscillation above will focus on around 60000-61200. From a technical perspective, it just verifies the vicinity of the previous high point.

It is also the clearing peak for bearish positions. If the price weakens and inserts a pin near these prices (to obtain liquidity), it will become a good opportunity for bearish positioning on the left.

This week's macro focus is on US non-farm payroll data on Friday.

Last month's non-farm payroll data was weak, but the recent improvement in unemployment claims data and the fading impact of hurricanes suggest a surprise in August employment data, which may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 18.

If the data is good, and even if the unemployment rate drops, it will also help alleviate short-term recession concerns and may be beneficial to the stock market.

Even if the data is not good, it may ignite market expectations of the Federal Reserve's rapid action. Good data performance is not enough to completely eliminate market expectations of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in the future. Therefore, even if non-farm employment data meets expectations and guides the market to expect a 25 basis point rate cut in September, the market may still continue to price in a 50 basis point rate cut in subsequent meetings. The overall macroeconomic environment is still favorable for risk assets.

However, it is important to note that a good macro environment does not necessarily mean that the market will rise. For the US stock market, factors such as economic and corporate earnings slowdown, fiscal crisis, and uncertainty in the elections are bearish factors. From the post-market performance of NVIDIA's financial report, it can be seen that investors have very high expectations for financial performance. If you are an institution that has already gained more than 50% in the past two years, the current high position is clearly not a good time to increase positions.

In plain terms, even if the data is released and there is a small increase, it still does not solve the problem of fund promotion.

Why start looking for opportunities to establish positions?

Starting in September, there will be a big drop and a big buy in the future. Don't miss the timing cycle. Time cost is also high!

Maintain your own pace. The experience of several bull and bear cycles tells me that the time has come.

Maintain a keen sense of smell before big data and big events.

The current market is relatively uncertain, mainly due to the US stock market. If we follow the rhythm of BTC itself, it is definitely at the top. However, BTC is completely following the US stock market. The expectation of a decline in the US stock market comes from the historical adjustment of the US stock market before and after interest rate cuts, but the depth of the adjustment varies.

I have read various analyses and believe that the US stock market is more likely to experience a significant decline. Most of the funds are currently staying on the sidelines, worried that the US stock market will trigger a wave of collapses.

However, we must also be aware that sometimes BTC can separate from the US stock market and follow its own trends. Although it is not visible at the moment, it will happen.

At least most people agree that this bull market will still come. Of course, various on-chain data also shows this. Moreover, the funds held by those who are currently waiting are enough to initiate a bull market. So, many people are waiting for an opportunity to buy at a low price.