2024H1，公司完成快递业务量102.27 亿件，同比增长32.47%，高于行业增速9.4pct；市场份额为12.76%，同比上升0.9pct；其中2024Q2 公司完成快递业务量56.40 亿件，同比增长29.21%。2024H1，公司快递服务单票收入为2.09 元，同比下降0.26 元，降幅为11.35%，主要系轻量化小件占比提升及公司根据市场情况相应调整政策投放等因素所致。occurrences
The company released its 2024 semi-annual report. With 2024H1, the company achieved revenue of 21.569 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.01%, and realized net profit to mother of 0.437 billion yuan, an increase of 100.17% over the previous year. Among them, in 2024Q2, the company achieved revenue of 11.437 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.58%, and achieved net profit of 0.247 billion yuan to mother, an increase of 188.81% over the previous year.
The volume of business has increased, and the price of a single ticket has fluctuated
2024H1, the company completed the express delivery business volume of 10.227 billion units, up 32.47% year on year, higher than the industry growth rate of 9.4pct; the market share was 12.76%, up 0.9 pct year on year; among them, 2024Q2 completed the express delivery business volume of 5.64 billion units, an increase of 29.21% year on year. 2024H1, the company's express delivery service ticket revenue was 2.09 yuan, down 0.26 yuan from the previous year, a decrease of 11.35%, mainly due to factors such as an increase in the share of lightweight small items and the company's policy adjustments according to market conditions.
Single ticket costs continued to be optimized, and gross margin increased by 1.2pct
2024H1, the cost of a single ticket for the company's express delivery service was 1.97 yuan, down 0.28 yuan from the previous year, a decrease of 12.44%. The main reason was that the company continued to use smart equipment to improve handling efficiency, reduce sorting costs, and optimize trunk routes to reduce trunk line transportation costs; the gross profit of a single ticket was 0.12 yuan, with a gross margin of 5.76%, an increase of 1.17 pct year on year; 2024H1 single ticket net profit was 0.04 yuan, up 51.12% year on year.
Continue to invest in infrastructure construction, and normal throughput capacity will continue to increase. In 2024, the company will continue to push forward a three-year 10 billion production capacity improvement project. 2024H1's capital expenditure was 1.528 billion yuan, an increase of 41.62% over the previous year; of these, it invested 2.03/0.977/0.194/0.107 billion yuan respectively in housing construction/machinery and equipment/transportation equipment/site decoration renovation. 2024H1 completed a total of 12 capacity improvement projects, driving the company's average daily order volume to exceed 65.5 million orders in June. It is estimated that the company's normal throughput capacity is expected to increase to more than 75 million orders per day within 2024.
Profit Forecasts and Ratings
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 48.192/55.94/63.923 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.76%/16.08%/14.27%, respectively; net profit to mother of 0.82/1.189/1.428 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 140.83%/44.91%/20.09%, respectively; EPS of 0.54/0.78/0.93 yuan/share, respectively. As the company's business volume continues to grow at a high rate, the scale effect is gradually unleashed, and the “buy” rating is maintained.
Risk warning: macroeconomic recovery falls short of expectations; price competition in the express delivery industry exceeds expectations; cost control results fall short of expectations.