受行业竞争加剧影响，电池片价格大幅下跌，盈利空间受到挤压。2024H1 公司电池片业务实现营业收入63.6 亿元，同比减少32.5%，实现毛利率0.8%，同比下降16.3pct，实现电池片出货19.21GW，同比增长68.51%，出货规模位居全球第二，其中N 型电池片出货16.43GW，位居全球首位，占出货结构比例85.5%。截止2024年6 月，公司具备约40GW 电池片产能，全部为N 型技术路线。occurrences
On August 28, 2024, the company released its 2024 semi-annual report. 2024H1 achieved operating income of 6.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.3%, and realized net profit to mother of -0.17 billion yuan. The net cash flow from operating activities changed from positive to negative, and a net cash flow of 0.55 billion yuan from operating activities, which changed from negative to positive over the previous year. Among them, the 2024Q2 company achieved operating income of 2.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 28.4%, and a net profit of -0.19 billion yuan.
Competition intensifies pressure on cell performance
Affected by increased competition in the industry, cell prices have dropped sharply, and profit margins have been squeezed. 2024H1's battery business achieved revenue of 6.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.3 pcts. Battery shipments reached 19.21 GW, an increase of 68.51% over the previous year, ranking second in the world. Among them, N-type cells shipped 16.43 GW, ranking first in the world, accounting for 85.5% of the shipment structure. As of June 2024, the company has a battery production capacity of about 40 GW, all of which are N-type technology routes.
Lay out overseas production capacity to enhance resilience to risks
The company actively lays out overseas markets, adheres to a global development strategy, and promotes customer development and certification in emerging markets such as Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and Australia. The company's 2024H1 overseas sales account for 13.79%, up from 4.69% in 2023. It plans to invest in 5GW high-efficiency N-type battery production capacity in Oman to spread the Middle East, European and American markets, and strengthen resilience to risks and overall competitiveness.
Focus on technology research and development to stabilize competitive advantage
The company focuses on technology research and development, and continuously optimizes N-type battery process technology. The company released a new generation of N-type battery “MonO 2” series products to improve passivation performance. The double-sided ratio reached 90%, and the conversion efficiency exceeded 26.3%. The company actively lays out research and development reserves for technologies such as perovskite laminates and BC. By the end of June 2024, the efficiency of the company's BC pilot line was 1-1.5 pct higher than mainstream N-type batteries, and the laboratory efficiency of pre-research perovskite laminated batteries reached 29.03%.
Profit forecasting and investment advice
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 12.66/15.15/19.31 billion yuan, respectively, -32.2%/19.7%/27.4% year-on-year; net profit to mother is 0.14/0.8/1.18 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -83.2%/482.9%/48.2%, respectively. EPS was 0.60/3.49/5.18 yuan/share, respectively. Competition in the industry intensified, and old production capacity was cleared one after another. During this period, the company's profits were under phased pressure. It is expected that overseas production capacity layout and technology research and development advantages will maintain its competitive advantage in the N-type era in the long term. It is recommended to pay attention.
Risk warning: PV installations fall short of expectations; industry competition intensifies; raw material prices fluctuate greatly.
