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【券商聚焦】东方财富证券维持理想汽车(02015)“增持”评级 料新车继续放量 盈利水平有望逐步恢复

[Broker Focus] Dongfang Wealth Securities maintains ideal automobile (02015) “increase in holdings” rating, and the profit level of new cars is expected to gradually recover

金吾財訊 ·  Sep 3 15:46  · Ratings

Jinwu Financial News | According to Dongfang Wealth Securities Research Report, the total revenue of Ideal Auto (02015) in 2024Q2 was 31.7 billion yuan, +10.6% year-on-year and +23.6% month-on-month. Among them, vehicle sales revenue was 30.3 billion yuan, +8.4% year over month, and +25.0% month on month; other sales and service revenue was 1.4 billion yuan, +99.6% year over year, -1.7% month on month. The increase in vehicle sales revenue was mainly due to an increase in vehicle deliveries. In 2024Q2, 0.1086 million new vehicles were delivered, +25.5% year-on-year, and +35.1% month-on-month. The revenue increase was lower than the increase in model sales, mainly due to changes in model structure and pricing strategy. Looking ahead to 2024Q3, the company expects delivery volume of 14.5 to 0.155 million vehicles, up 38.0% to 47.5% year over year. Total revenue was 394 to 42.2 billion yuan, up 13.7% to 21.6% year over year.

According to the bank, the gross margin for 2024Q2 was 19.5%, down 2.3 pct year on year and 1.1 pct month on month; of these, vehicle gross margin was 18.7%, down 2.3 pct year on year, down 0.6 pct month on month. The gross margin decreased in the same model structure and pricing strategy. 2024Q2 operating expenses were 5.7 billion yuan, +23.9% YoY and -2.7% YoY. Among them, R&D expenses were RMB 3 billion, +24.8% YoY and -0.7% month-on-month; sales, general and administrative expenses were RMB 2.8 billion, +21.9% YoY and -5.5%. Net profit for 2024Q2 was 1.1 billion yuan, -52.3% YoY and +86.2% YoY. Among them, operating profit was 0.468 billion yuan, -71.2% year-on-year, reversing losses month-on-month (-0.585 billion yuan in 2024Q1). It is expected that as new car sales continue to increase and terminal preferential policies are adjusted, profit levels are expected to gradually recover.

The bank said that in the short term, as the company's channels expand, the company's sales volume is expected to continue to be realized; in the medium to long term, as the company consolidates the supercharged ecological foundation, the product matrix and energy types are gradually improved, and at the same time, the company's performance is expected to continue to improve steadily. The bank maintains an estimated 2024-2026 revenue of 1679.79, 2261.86 and 274.528 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother of 112.53 billion yuan, 164.08 billion yuan and 23.530 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding EPS is 5.30, 7.73 and 11.09 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 14, 9 and 7 times, respectively, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.

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