Mingchuang Premium (09896.HK): Overseas & TOPTOY stores accelerate expansion, 24Q2 gross margin reached a record high

方正證券 · Sep 3

事件：名创优品发布2024Q2 财报。①本季度名创优品收入40.35 亿元，同比+24.1%，毛利率为43.9%，同比+4.1pcts，经调整净利润6.25 亿元，同比+9.4%，剔除净汇兑亏损及损益，经调整净利润同比+24.6%；经调整净利润率15.5%，同比-2.1pcts。②2024 年8 月30 日，公司董事会授权批准[2024 年股份购回计划」，将于12 月内回购最多20 亿港元的本公司在外普通股及代表其普通股的美国存托股份。

门店：TopToy 和海外名创开店速度进一步提升。截止24Q2，名创优品+TopToy 门店共6868 家，其中国内名创优品4115 家，海外2753 家，TopToy195 家；24Q2 中国名创门店增长81 家，海外门店增长157 家，TopToy 门店增长35 家。公司此前计划24 年海外净开店550-650 家，24H1海外门店净增266 家，其中美国新增门店数占比达到50%，24H2 延续开店速度有望达成全年目标。

收入拆分：TopToy 及海外名创延续高增，海外直营市场占比稳步提升。①2024Q2 中国内地名创优品品牌收入23.08 亿元，同比+18.3%，其中线下平均门店数量增长14.2%；②2024Q2 海外收入15.10 亿元，同比+35.5%，平均门店数量增长25.9%，同店销售增长9%。占比海外收入56%，同比提升9pcts。③2024Q2TopToy 品牌收入2.14 亿元，同比+24.3%，平均门店数量同比增长65.3%，同店销售增长107.6%。

毛利率：24Q2 毛利率达到43.9%，创下历史新高，主要由于海外直营市场和TopToy 表现强劲。未来，通过公司在IP 开发、供应链整合、全球化方面的能力，毛利率有望稳步提升。

费用率：24Q2 公司销售费用率20.5%，同比+5.7pcts，销售费用增长主因国内及海外直营店相关开支增加；管理费用率5.6%，同比+0.6pcts。

IP：24 年名创优品与chiikawa 联名IP 商品爆火，24Q2 chiikawa 成为单季度营收占比最高的IP，8 月推出新角色有望延续IP 热度。目前，名创优品MINISO 已与全球超过100 个顶尖IP 达成深度合作关系，进一步验证了公司具备成为世界第一的IP 零售集团的实力。

盈利预测与投资建议：本季度国内名创优品仍然保持稳健的拓店步伐，而海外直营和TopToy 已成为毛利率增长的驱动引擎，并且有望驱动净利率中枢进一步上行。整体来看，公司未来5 年开店仍有望维持较高增速，中国供应链出海大背景下，公司有望以直营强管控为主的模式继续拓展海外蓝海市场，利用公司在IP 设计、供应链整合方面的能力，进一步实现全球化拓张。以旧财年预计，综合预计FY2024/2025 归母净利润28.22 亿/34.83 亿元，对应13x/11x PE,维持“强烈推荐”评级。

风险提示: 目标兑现不及预期、海外拓店不及预期、全球经济波动风险

Event: Mingchuang Premium released the 2024Q2 financial report. ① Mingchuang Premium's revenue for the quarter was 4.035 billion yuan, +24.1% year over year, gross margin was 43.9%, year-on-year, and adjusted net profit of 0.625 billion yuan, +9.4% year over year, excluding net exchange losses and profit and loss. Adjusted net profit margin was +24.6% YoY; adjusted net profit margin was 15.5%, -2.1 pcts year over year. ② On August 30, 2024, the Board of Directors of the Company authorized the approval of the [2024 Share Repurchase Plan” to repurchase up to HK$2 billion of the Company's foreign common shares and American Depositary Shares representing its common shares within 12 months.

Stores: The speed at which TopToy and foreign brands are opening stores has further increased. As of 24Q2, Mingchuang Premium Plus TopToy had a total of 6868 stores, including 4115 in China, 2,753 overseas, and 195 TopToy stores; in 24Q2, China's Mingchuang stores increased by 81, overseas stores increased by 157, and TopToy stores increased by 35. The company previously planned to open 550-650 net overseas stores in 24, with a net increase of 266 overseas stores in 24H1. Among them, the number of new stores in the US accounted for 50%, and the 24H2 continued opening speed is expected to reach the target for the whole year.

Revenue split: TopToy and overseas brands continued to increase rapidly, and their share of the overseas direct market increased steadily. ① 2024Q2 Mainland China's Mingchuang Premium brand revenue was 2.308 billion yuan, with an average number of offline stores increasing by 14.2%; ② 2024Q2's overseas revenue was 1.51 billion yuan, +35.5% year over year. The average number of stores increased 25.9%, and same-store sales increased 9%. It accounted for 56% of overseas revenue, an increase of 9pcts over the same period last year. ③ 2024q2TopToy brand revenue was 0.214 billion yuan, +24.3% year over year. The average number of stores increased 65.3% year over year, and same-store sales increased 107.6%.

Gross profit margin: The gross margin reached 43.9% in 24Q2, a record high, mainly due to strong performance in overseas direct sales markets and TopToy. In the future, gross margin is expected to increase steadily through the company's capabilities in IP development, supply chain integration, and globalization.

Expense rate: 24Q2 The company's sales expense ratio was 20.5%, +5.7pcts year on year. The increase in sales expenses was mainly due to increased expenses related to domestic and overseas direct-run stores; the management expense ratio was 5.6%, +0.6 pcts year over year.

IP: In '24, the joint IP product of Mingchuang Premium and Chiikawa exploded. 24Q2 Chiikawa became the IP with the highest revenue share in a single quarter, and the launch of a new role in August is expected to continue the popularity of IP. At present, Mingchuang Premium MINISO has reached in-depth partnerships with more than 100 of the world's top IPs, further verifying that the company has the strength to become the world's number one IP retail group.

Profit forecast and investment advice: Domestic Mingchuang Premium maintained a steady pace of store expansion this quarter, while overseas direct sales and TopToy have become the driving engines of gross margin growth, and are expected to drive the net interest rate center further upward. Overall, the company is expected to maintain a high growth rate when opening stores in the next 5 years. In the context of China's supply chain going overseas, the company is expected to continue to expand the overseas blue ocean market with a model based on strong direct management and control, and use the company's capabilities in IP design and supply chain integration to further achieve global expansion. Based on previous fiscal year estimates, the consolidated net profit for FY2024/2025 is 2.822 billion/3.483 billion yuan, corresponding to 13x/11x PE, maintaining a “highly recommended” rating.

Risk warning: Target achievement falls short of expectations, overseas store expansion falls short of expectations, risk of global economic fluctuations

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名创优品(09896.HK)：海外&TOPTOY门店加速扩张 24Q2毛利率创新高

Mingchuang Premium (09896.HK): Overseas & TOPTOY stores accelerate expansion, 24Q2 gross margin reached a record high

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