上半年自产煤量、价同降，贸易煤量增价减。2024 年上半年公司实现自产煤产量1538.12 万吨，同比-27.4%；销量2083.09 万吨，同比-22.71%，其中自产煤1191.75（-38.51%），贸易煤891.34（+17.77%）。上半年自产煤吨煤售价685.92 元/吨，同比-6.11%；吨煤毛利378.98 元/吨，同比-16.1%；毛利率55.25%，同比降低6.58 个百分点。贸易煤平均吨煤售价626.02 元/吨，同比-23.69%；吨煤毛利18.42 元/吨，同比-51.49%；毛利率2.94%，同比降低1.69pct。自产煤产销量下降主要因山西煤炭安监及黄河流域生态治理对河曲露天矿产量释放影响等。Description of the event
The company released its 2024 semi-annual report: during the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 14.057 billion yuan, or -32.01%; net profit due to mother of 1.291 billion yuan, or -58.11%; net profit after deduction of 1.38 billion yuan to mother, -55.68%; net cash flow from operating activities was 2.381 billion yuan, or -16.99%; basic earnings per share was 0.65 yuan, -58.06% year on year; weighted average ROE 8.01%, a year-on-year decrease of 11.63 percentage points.
Incident reviews
The volume and price of self-produced coal fell in the first half of the year, and the volume and price of traded coal increased and decreased. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved 15.3812 million tons of self-produced coal, -27.4%; sales volume was 20.8309 million tons, or -22.71% year-on-year, including 1191.75 (-38.51%) of self-produced coal and 891.34 (+17.77%) of trade coal. In the first half of the year, the price of self-produced coal tons was 685.92 yuan/ton, -6.11%; gross profit per ton of coal was 378.98 yuan/ton, -16.1% year over year; gross profit margin was 55.25%, down 6.58 percentage points year on year. The average price of a ton of coal traded was 626.02 yuan/ton, -23.69%; gross profit per ton of coal was 18.42 yuan/ton, or -51.49%; gross profit margin was 2.94%, down 1.69 pct year on year. The decline in sales of self-produced coal production is mainly due to the impact of coal safety supervision in Shanxi and ecological management of the Yellow River Basin on the release of Hequ open-pit mine production.
Q2 Coal's own production volume and price have rebounded, and production and sales will recover somewhat month-on-month in the second half of the year. 2024Q2 produced 7.8666 million tons of coal, -25.5% year-on-year, +4.68%; sales volume 6.456 million tons, -3.27% YoY, +18.21%; tonnes of coal sold at 705.89 yuan/ton, +6.65% YoY, +6.58% month-on-month; gross profit margin +56.69%, YoY -4.57pct, month-on-month +3.25pct. The increase in the price of self-produced coal is mainly due to an increase in the share of coking coal and an increase in the coal quality of thermal coal. The company's coal mine production capacity increased in the first half of the year. Changchunxing (+1.5 million tons/year), Ling Zhida (+0.9 million tons/year), and Hanjiawa (+0.6 million tons/year) increased their total nuclear production capacity by 3 million tons, which is expected to contribute to the increase in coal production and sales in the second half of the year; in addition, the coal capacity utilization rate in Shanxi Province has recovered since July 2024, and the company's capacity utilization rate may increase accordingly. At the same time, the company's Xinshun and Zhuangzihe coal mines still have room to release production in the later stages, which may partially make up for production losses in the Hequ open pit mine, and the company actively participated in the bidding for new resources, so there is room for future capacity growth.
Investment advice
The company's 2024-2026 EPS is expected to be 1.68\ 1.79\ 1.94 yuan respectively, corresponding to the company's closing price of 11.56 yuan on August 30, the 2024-2026 dynamic PE is 6.9\ 6.5\ 6.0 times, respectively, and the industry average dynamic valuation is 10.22 times. The company's valuation is relatively low. In the later stages, we expect the coal price center to remain high, and the gross margin of the company's coal business will still be high. Furthermore, the company promised that the dividend to be distributed in 2024-2026 will be no less than 60% of the distributable profit achieved in that year. As production resumes and profits increase, the increase in the dividend ratio will bring room for dividend rate improvement. We continue to be optimistic about the company's medium- to long-term investment value and continue to give it an “increase holdings -A” investment rating.
Risk warning
1) Risk of macroeconomic growth falling short of expectations; 2) risk of coal production release falling short of expectations; 3) risk of coal prices falling beyond expectations; 4) risk of production safety, etc.