萨默斯上周六在接受彭博社采访时表示，美国经济仍然强劲，就业情况良好，经济增长保持韧性。这令华尔街的一些巨头如摩根大通CEO戴蒙和桥水创始人达利欧感到意外，因为他们之前曾预言随着美联储开始对抗通胀的行动，经济将会陷入衰退。Source: Jin10 Data
Author: Zhu Yu
Summers said, 'We are at least on the edge of a bubble, and I don't think the financial markets are showing the obvious signs of a bubble that they have at other times. But that doesn't mean we are far from that situation.'
Former US Treasury Secretary Summers said that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is not as tight as investors may think, which makes it easier for the market to enter the bubble zone.
Summers said in an interview with Bloomberg last Saturday that the US economy remains strong, with good employment conditions and resilient economic growth. This has surprised some Wall Street giants, such as JPMorgan CEO Dimon and Bridgewater founder Dalio, who previously predicted that the economy would enter a recession as the Federal Reserve began to counter inflation.
However, Summers pointed out that the strong US economy may actually be bad news for US stocks, as it indicates that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is not as tight as the market believes.
Previously, the Federal Reserve had raised interest rates by 525 basis points to combat inflation, but Summers estimates that the neutral interest rate level that neither restrains nor stimulates economic growth has increased from about 2.5% to about 4%.
When speaking of higher interest rates, Summers said, 'I think this situation will continue for some time.' He also warned, 'The Federal Reserve may not ultimately cut interest rates as much as the market currently expects.'
The market may be disappointed later this year as investors eagerly anticipate significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024. According to the CME Group's tool for the Federal Reserve, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 100 basis points or more by the end of this year is currently at 57%.
But Summers warned that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates in 2024 may have slightly increased to over 15%, which is bearish for US stocks.
Given that monetary policy is not as restrictive as the market believes, the US stock market may also show signs of trouble. The s&p 500 index approached a series of historical highs in 2024, which market experts warned is an unsustainable winning streak.
Summers said, 'We are at least on the edge of a bubble, and I don't think the financial markets are showing the obvious signs of a bubble that they have at other times. But that doesn't mean we are far from that situation.'
Editor/rice
