FUTU Morning Post

Futu Morning Report | This week will be the main event! There will be a "big test" of data before the Fed's interest rate cut; Hong Kong Stock Exchange will launch a weekly series of stock options, starting trading on November 4th.

Futu News · Sep 3 07:58

热点要闻

本周将是重头戏！美联储本月降息前还有三道数据“大考”

随着时间步入9月，除了议息日当天将要公布的美国8月零售销售数据外，真正具有关键影响力的美国宏观经济指标，其实只剩下了三组，分别是：本周三将出炉的美国7月JOLTs职位空缺数；本周五将公布的美国8月非农就业数据；以及下周三将发布的美国8月CPI数据。

美联储最好快点行动？花旗预计9月将降息50个基点

华尔街认为，本周的非农数据可能成为美联储9月降息幅度的决定性因素。花旗认为，如果就业报告符合该行的预期，即就业人数增长12.5万人，失业率为4.3%，那么美联储将在即将召开的9月份会议上降息50个基点。

牛市才刚刚开始！美银高呼：投资这一资产就对了

据美国银行称，大宗商品是未来十年投资者应该关注的领域。该行表示，投资大宗商品可能产生11%的年化回报，“因为债务、赤字、人口统计、逆全球化、人工智能和净零排放政策都具有通胀性”。

美联储降息利好加持，比特币能否打破“9月魔咒”？

由于币圈交易员仍在等待关于美联储降息和即将到来的总统大选的明确方向， $比特币 (BTC.CC)$ 的疲软交易行情可能还会持续一个月。根据CoinGlass的数据，比特币在过去11个9月份中有8个收盘下跌，并且该月是比特币年平均跌幅最大的月份，为4.8%。

连续七年“每逢九月必跌”！今年金价能打破季节性“魔咒”吗？

今年以来，一路势如破竹连创新高的黄金，也许将在本月面临一道严峻的“季节性考验”：“9月魔咒”会否再现？如下图所示，自2017年以来，每年9月黄金价格都会下跌——在此期间，黄金在9月份的平均跌幅高达近3.3%，这使其无可争议地成为了一年中表现最为糟糕的月份，远远低于历月1%的平均涨幅。

美股消息

受以旧换新补贴提振，特斯拉中国8月份出货量同比上升

$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$ 上海工厂8月份出货量同比增长3%，连续第二个月增长。这一增长得益于中国政府7月底将新能源汽车“以旧换新”补贴翻倍至2万元人民币。中国乘联会数据显示，8月份全国新能源乘用车批发销量达105万辆，同比增长32%，环比增长11%。预计特斯拉在中国的出货量将继续增长。

台积电尖端A16芯片迎来订单！苹果、OpenAI据称已预定首批产能

$台积电 (TSM.US)$ 的尖端“埃米级”A16芯片还未量产就已轰动业界。据台湾经济日报报道，科技巨头 $苹果 (AAPL.US)$ 和人工智能界“当红炸子鸡”OpenAI都已预订了台积电A16芯片。

iPhone将迎换机潮？Glowtime发布会上苹果AI或决定“生死”

$苹果 (AAPL.US)$ 秋季新品发布会迎来最后一周倒计时，iPhone 16登场在即，“苹果智能”或将成为这场发布会的Glowtime（高光时刻）。“Apple Intelligence将在iPhone 16发布会上扮演主角，‘Glowtime’几乎可以肯定是指新的Siri界面。”大摩称，苹果智能的引入将刺激需求加速iPhone换机周期。目前iPhone换机周期处于历史峰值4.8年。

英特尔“自救”路线图：分拆Altera并暂停320亿美元德国工厂项目

$英特尔 (INTC.US)$ CEO将在9月中旬提出一项计划，包括出售公司无法继续资助的业务，例如可编程芯片部门Altera，该计划还可能包括暂停或完全停止其320亿美元的德国工厂项目。这一计划旨在削减公司的整体成本并重塑资本支出。

研究：诺和诺德减肥药可以降低新冠死亡率

最新研究发现，服用 $诺和诺德 (NVO.US)$ 司美格鲁肽的人感染新冠后死亡的风险比未服用的人低33%；司美格鲁肽不止能降低心脏病风险，还有更多益处，比如改善心力衰竭、炎症等症状，降低慢性肾病患者的死亡率。

历史上首次！大众据报道考虑关闭在德国的工厂，以进一步削减成本

据彭博报道， $大众汽车(ADR) (VWAGY.US)$ 正考虑首次关闭在德国的工厂，并废除工资协议，以进一步削减开支。这些潜在措施不仅针对其主要乘用车品牌，还包括其他集团实体，同时还可能尝试终止公司与工会达成的保证职位安全的协议，该协议旨在保障就业至2029年。如果实施这些关闭，将是大众汽车87年历史中首次在德国关闭工厂，这将使大众与德国强大的工会发生冲突。

港市前瞻

北水大幅抢筹港股ETF，买入盈富基金超67亿港元，卖出腾讯近2亿港元

9月2日（周一），南下资金净买入港股119.39亿港元。

$盈富基金 (02800.HK)$、$南方恒生科技 (03033.HK)$、$恒生中国企业 (02828.HK)$分别获净买入67.56亿港元、11.35亿港元、11.26亿港元；

$腾讯控股 (00700.HK)$、$小米集团-W (01810.HK)$分别遭净卖出1.91亿港元、5,343万港元。

港交所将推出每周股票期权系列，11月4日开始交易

香港交易所将推出每周股票期权系列。该系列已取得香港证监会批准，待市场准备就绪后，将于2024年11月4日推出供市场参与者交易。

其中，下列股票将新增每周期权系列：$汇丰控股 (00005.HK)$、 $香港交易所 (00388.HK)$ 、$腾讯控股 (00700.HK)$、$快手-W (01024.HK)$、$比亚迪股份 (01211.HK)$、$中国平安 (02318.HK)$、$美团-W (03690.HK)$、$京东集团-SW (09618.HK)$、$百度集团-SW (09888.HK)$、 $阿里巴巴-W (09988.HK)$ 。

今日关注

关键词：美国PMI；营建支出月率

财经数据方面，美国8月标普全球制造业PMI终值、美国8月ISM制造业PMI、美国7月营建支出月率将出炉。

财报方面， $Gitlab (GTLB.US)$ 将于美股盘后发布财报。

牛牛晨读：

所有人的潜意识里都有这样的偏见：给别人提建议时，以为是在为别人考虑，其实是从自己的利益出发。
——查理·芒格

编辑/Somer

Hot news

It's going to be a big week! Before the Fed cuts interest rates this month, there are still three major 'exams' for the data.

As September begins, apart from the U.S. August retail sales data to be released on the interest rate decision day, there are actually only three sets of key U.S. macroeconomic indicators left: the U.S. JOLTs job openings for July to be released this Wednesday; the U.S. August non-farm employment data to be released this Friday; and the U.S. August CPI data to be released next Wednesday.

Should the Fed act quickly? Citigroup expects a 50 basis point rate cut in September.

Wall Street believes that this week's non-farm data may become the decisive factor for the Fed's interest rate cut in September. Citi believes that if the employment report meets the bank's expectations, with an increase of 0.125 million in employment and an unemployment rate of 4.3%, the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points at the upcoming September meeting.

The bull market has just begun! Bank of America shouts: Investing in this asset is the right choice.

According to Bank of America, commodities are the area that investors should focus on for the next decade. The bank stated that investing in commodities can generate an 11% annualized return, 'because debt, deficits, demographics, deglobalization, artificial intelligence, and net zero emission policies are all inflationary'.

Will bitcoin be able to break the "September curse" with the bullish impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut?

As cryptocurrency traders are still waiting for a clear direction on the Fed rate cut and the upcoming presidential election, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ The weak trading situation may continue for another month. According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin has closed lower in 8 out of the past 11 Septembers, making it the month with the largest average decline in Bitcoin's annual performance, at 4.8%.

For seven consecutive years, there has been a 'September Crash' in the gold price! Can the gold price break this seasonal 'curse' this year?

Gold, which has been soaring to new highs all year, may face a daunting "seasonal test" this month: Will the "September curse" return? As shown in the chart below, since 2017, gold prices have fallen in September every year - during this period, the average decline in gold prices in September is nearly 3.3%, making it undoubtedly the worst-performing month of the year, far below the average increase of 1% in other months.

US stock market news

Boosted by the subsidy for trade-in, Tesla's shipment volume in China increased year-on-year in August.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ In August, the shipment volume of the Shanghai factory increased by 3% year-on-year, marking the second consecutive monthly increase. This growth was attributed to the Chinese government doubling the subsidy for the 'trade-in' of new energy vehicles to 0.02 million RMB at the end of July. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in August reached 1.05 million units, a year-on-year increase of 32% and a month-on-month increase of 11%. It is expected that Tesla's shipment volume in China will continue to grow.

Taiwan Semiconductor's cutting-edge A16 chip has received orders! Apple and OpenAI are said to have booked the first batch of production capacity.

$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ The cutting-edge 'A16' chip, developed by technology giant Intel, has caused a sensation in the industry even before mass production. According to Taiwan Economic Daily, both Intel and the AI leader OpenAI have already placed orders for Taiwan Semiconductor's A16 chip. $Apple (AAPL.US)$ Both Apple and the AI powerhouse OpenAI have already reserved Taiwan Semiconductor's A16 chip, which is a hot commodity in the technology and AI industry.

Will iPhone usher in a wave of replacements? At the Glowtime conference, Apple AI may determine the fate.

$Apple (AAPL.US)$ The countdown to the autumn new product launch enters its final week, and the iPhone 16 is about to make its debut. "Apple Intelligence" is likely to be the highlight of this launch event. "Glowtime" almost certainly refers to the new Siri interface. According to Daiwa Securities, the introduction of Apple Intelligence will stimulate demand and accelerate the iPhone replacement cycle. Currently, the iPhone replacement cycle is at a historical peak of 4.8 years.

Intel's 'self-rescue' roadmap: splitting Altera and suspending the $32 billion German factory project.

$Intel (INTC.US)$ The CEO will propose a plan in mid-September, including selling off business units that the company cannot continue to fund, such as the programmable chip division Altera. The plan may also involve suspending or completely stopping its $32 billion German factory project. This plan aims to reduce the company's overall costs and reshape its capital expenditure.

Research: Novo Nordisk's weight loss drug can reduce the mortality rate of COVID-19.

Recent studies have found that people who take the key active ingredient, semaglutide, in the popular weight-loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy have a lower risk of death after contracting the COVID-19 virus. $Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO.US)$ People who were infected with COVID-19 and took Semaglutide had a 33% lower risk of death than those who did not take it. Semaglutide not only reduces the risk of heart disease but also has other benefits, such as improving symptoms of heart failure and inflammation, and reducing the mortality rate of patients with chronic kidney disease.

For the first time in history, Volkswagen is reportedly considering closing its factories in Germany to further reduce costs.

According to Bloomberg, $VOLKSWAGEN A G (VWAGY.US)$ It is considering closing its factories in Germany for the first time and abolishing wage agreements to further reduce expenses. These potential measures are not only aimed at its main passenger vehicle brand, but also other corporate entities. It may also attempt to terminate the agreements with the unions that guarantee job security until 2029. If these closures are implemented, it will be the first time in the 87-year history of Volkswagen that a factory is closed in Germany, which will create conflicts with Germany's powerful unions.

BeiShui crazily bought China Mobile for nearly HKD 1.8 billion and sold Tencent for about HKD 200 million. On Monday (June 3rd), Southbound funds net purchased HKD 3.4 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

Beishui significantly increased its holdings in Hong Kong ETF, buying over 6.7 billion Hong Kong dollars of tracker fund of Hong Kong, and sold nearly 0.2 billion Hong Kong dollars of Tencent.

On September 2nd (Monday), southbound funds net bought 11.939 billion Hong Kong dollars of Hong Kong stocks.

$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index ETF (03033.HK)$,$Hang Seng H-Share Index ETF (02828.HK)$Net purchases of 6.756 billion Hong Kong dollars, 1.135 billion Hong Kong dollars, and 1.126 billion Hong Kong dollars, respectively.

$TENCENT (00700.HK)$,$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$They were respectively sold by net 0.191 billion Hong Kong dollars and 53.43 million Hong Kong dollars.

HKEX will launch a weekly series of stock options, trading starts on November 4th.

HKEX will launch a weekly stock options series. The series has been approved by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and will be available for trading by market participants on November 4, 2024, once the market is ready.

The following stocks will have new options series added:$HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$and$HKEX (00388.HK)$N/A.$TENCENT (00700.HK)$,$KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$,$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$,$PING AN (02318.HK)$,$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$,$JD-SW (09618.HK)$,$BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$and$BABA-W (09988.HK)$.

The company's overall sales volume in 2023 was 18,000 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 28.10%, indicating significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan were 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

Keywords: U.S. PMI; Construction Spending Month-over-Month

In terms of financial data, the final value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August, and the Construction Spending Month-over-Month for July in the United States will be released.

In terms of financial reports, $Gitlab (GTLB.US)$ Will announce financial results after the US stock market closes.

Futubull Morning News:

"- Charlie Munger"

Editor/Somer

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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