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三一国际(00631.HK):矿山装备边际承压 新兴业务未来可期

Sany International (00631.HK): Mining equipment is under marginal pressure, and emerging businesses can be expected in the future

國海證券 ·  Sep 3

Incidents:

Sany International released its 2024 mid-year report on August 28, 2024: From January to June 2024, the company achieved revenue of 10.756 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.77%; net profit to mother was 1.033 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.08%. In the first half of the year, the company's gross profit margin was 24.4%, a decrease of 1.7 pct compared to the same period last year, and the R&D expenses ratio was 7.6%, an increase of 0.7 pct over the same period last year.

Investment highlights:

Mining equipment is under marginal pressure, and the petroleum equipment business surged in the first half of 2024. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 10.756 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.77% over the previous year. By business, due to the boom in the coal industry, mining equipment revenue was 5.938 billion yuan, down 17.7% year on year; logistics equipment revenue was 3.282 billion yuan, up 7.1% year on year; oil and gas equipment revenue was 0.846 billion yuan, up 151.5% year on year; and revenue from emerging business was 0.69 billion yuan, up 209.1% year on year. The company's gross profit margin was 24.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7 pct, mainly due to the increase in the share of oil and gas equipment and emerging industries with low gross margins.

Increased investment in R&D. Emerging businesses can be expected in the first half of 2024. The company's R&D expenses rate was 7.6%, an increase of 0.7 pct compared to 6.9% in the same period last year. The main reason is that the company's investment in R&D in emerging industries and new products has increased dramatically, and the future development of emerging businesses can be expected. The company's emerging businesses include lithium battery equipment, solar modules, and hydrogen production equipment.

The share of overseas markets continued to rise. The Russian and African markets rose to H1 in 2024. The company achieved sales revenue of 6.942 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%; the overseas market achieved sales revenue of 3.814 billion yuan, an increase of 17.6% over the previous year, and overseas revenue accounted for 35.5%, an increase of 5.5 pcts year-on-year. In 2024, the Russian and African markets achieved revenue of 0.838/0.505 billion yuan respectively, or +930.1%/+64.5% YoY.

Divestment of the robotics business, focusing on the main business. On May 14, 2024, the company announced that it had entered into an equity transfer agreement with Sany Group to sell all of its shares in Sany Robotics at a total cost of RMB 0.046 billion. Sany Robotics recorded losses in 2022, 2023 and 2024H1. The sale was completed on May 24, 2024. The company's net income was 0.023 billion yuan, and it no longer holds any shares in Sany Robotics.

Profit forecasts and investment ratings Although traditional businesses such as mining equipment are under marginal pressure, the company continues to lay out emerging businesses, and future growth can be expected. The company's 2024-2026E revenue is estimated to be 22.4/25.51/28.54 billion yuan, +10.46%/+13.88%/+11.89%; net profit to mother was 1.93/2.26/2.65 billion yuan, respectively, +0.25%/+16.80%/+17.20%; corresponding PE was 6.84/5.86/5.00X, respectively. We are optimistic about the increase in performance that the company's emerging business is expected to bring. For the first time, we have covered it and given a “gain” rating.

Risks suggest that downstream demand falls short of expectations, overseas macroeconomic risks, overseas market expansion falls short of expectations, new business expansion falls short of expectations, and industry competition increases risks.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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