国内尼龙6 供给与需求均保持增长态势。1）国产切片质量水平得到稳步提升，性价比优势凸显，进口逐步减少。根据聚合顺2024 年中报援引隆众资讯数据，2024 年上半年中PA6 切片累计表观消费量预计在 268.67 万吨，较2023年同比增加 23.31%。2）原材料方面，国内己内酰胺生产能力、产量得到了快速增长。根据聚合顺2024 年中报援引隆众资讯数据，2024 年上半年国内己内酰胺市场震荡运行，价格趋势整体先跌后涨，6 月价格稍回落。3）下游领域，尼龙需求将保持增长态势。尼龙纺丝企业缓慢恢复，锦纶民用丝需求旺盛；工程塑料方面，我国汽车、电子电器、机械、高铁等行业的发展，有望带动尼龙6 工程塑料需求增长；薄膜领域方面，食品包装领域需求增长将驱动尼龙薄膜产量的增长。Aggregate Shunshun released the 2024 semi-annual report of the company. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 3.518 billion yuan, up 26.90% year on year; deducted non-net profit of 0.147 billion yuan from mother, up 50.11% year on year.
The increase in the company's revenue in the first half of 2024 was mainly due to the increase in sales volume and price of nylon slice products 1) By product, the cumulative sales volume of the company's nylon slice products increased 16.85% year on year to 0.263 million tons in the first half of 2024, the average sales price increased 8.71% to 0.013 million yuan/ton, and the cumulative revenue increased 27.03% year on year to 3.517 billion yuan. 2) In terms of profitability, the company's gross sales margin and net sales margin in the first half of 2024 were 8.22%/5.20%, respectively, up 1.14pct/1.25pct year-on-year. 3) The three cost rates decreased by 0.12 percentage points year over year to 2.60%. Among them, sales, management (including R&D), and financial expense ratios changed -0.10, -0.27, and 0.25 percentage points year-on-year to 0.12%, 3.28%, and -0.80%. In the first half of 2024, the company's R&D expenses accounted for 2.75% of revenue, a year-on-year decrease of 0.20 percentage points.
The company actively promotes the construction of new investment projects and optimizes the product structure. 1) The “Polymerization Shunluhua Phase II Project” has a design capacity of 0.22 million tons/year. As of June 30, 2024, the project is under construction. Of these, the 0.18 million tons/year production capacity company expects to reach trial operation in the fourth quarter of 2024. 2) The three production lines of the convertible bond raising project “0.18 million tons of polyamide 6 new material project” have reached the scheduled state of use in June 2023. 3) Related fund-raising projects “New Material Project with an Annual Output of 0.124 Million Tons of Nylon” and “New Nylon Material with an Annual Output of 0.08 Million Tons (Nylon 66) Project” are being built in an orderly manner.
Domestic nylon 6 supply and demand have maintained a growing trend. 1) The quality level of domestic slices has been steadily improved, cost performance advantages have been highlighted, and imports have gradually decreased. According to the 2024 Mid-Year Report, Citing Longzhong Information Data, the cumulative apparent consumption of PA6 slices in the first half of 2024 is expected to be 2.6867 million tons, an increase of 23.31% over 2023. 2) In terms of raw materials, domestic caprolactam production capacity and production have increased rapidly. According to the 2024 Mid-Year Report of Polymersun, citing Longzhong information data, the domestic caprolactam market fluctuated in the first half of 2024. The overall price trend fell first and then rose, and prices fell slightly in June. 3) In the downstream sector, demand for nylon will continue to grow. Nylon spinning companies are slowly recovering, and demand for nylon civilian yarn is strong; in terms of engineering plastics, the development of China's automobile, electronic appliances, machinery, high-speed rail and other industries, is expected to drive demand for nylon 6 engineering plastics; in the film sector, the increase in demand in the food packaging sector will drive the increase in nylon film production.
Profit forecasting and investment ratings. We expect the company's EPS in 2024-2026 to be 0.80, 1.00, and 1.21 yuan respectively. Referring to the valuation of comparable companies in the same industry, we believe that a reasonable valuation range is 13-16 times PE in 2024, and the corresponding reasonable value range is 10.40-12.80 yuan, maintaining a “superior to market” rating. Risk warning. The progress of projects under construction fell short of expectations, and the prices of products and raw materials fluctuated.
Profit assumption:
1) Price assumption: We believe that with the recovery and improvement of domestic demand, product prices and gross margin are expected to continue to improve compared to 23 years. The average price of nylon 6 slices is expected to be 0.0127, 0.0128, 0.0128 million/ton in 24-26 years; based on Alibaba's online procurement price of copolymerized nylon, we expect an average price of 0.02 million/ton in 24-26 years.
2) Sales Assumptions: According to the “Hangzhou Jueshun New Materials Co., Ltd. Offering Instructions for Issuing Convertible Corporate Bonds to Unspecified Targets (Application Draft) (2023 Semi-Annual Report Update)”, 0.104 million tons/year nylon 6 slices are expected to be put into production in 24, so we expect sales of nylon 6 slices to be 0.6672, 0.7088, and 0.714 million tons in 2024 to 2026. According to the “Hangzhou Polymerization New Materials Co., Ltd. offering instructions for issuing convertible corporate bonds and securities to unspecified targets (2023 semi-annual report update)”, 0.02 million tons of copolymer nylon are scheduled to be completed and put into operation in 2024; according to the 2023 annual report, 0.08 million ton nylon 66 slices are scheduled to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2025, so we expect sales of specialty nylon slices to be 0.011, 0.027, 0.064 million tons in 2024-2026.
