公司海外及坦克销量同比高增，销量占比同环比持续提升。公司2024Q2 销量28.4 万辆，同比-5.0%，环比+3.3%，其中海外销量10.9 万辆，同比+51.1%，环比+17.2%，海外销量占比达38.2%，同比+14.2pct，环比+4.5pct；新能源销量7.3 万辆，同比+11.9%，环比+23.7%，新能源乘用车销量占比达31.0%，同比+4.4pct，环比+5.5pct。受益于海外及坦克销量同比提升，公司Q2 实现营收485.7 亿元，同比+18.7%，环比+13.3%，对应单车收入17.1 万元，同比+3.4 万元，环比+1.5 万元。Description of the event
Great Wall Motor released its 2024 mid-year report. Q2 achieved revenue of 48.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%, and realized net profit to mother of 3.85 billion yuan, an increase of 224.4% over the previous year.
Incident comments
The company's overseas and tank sales increased year-on-year, and the share of sales continued to increase month-on-month. The company sold 0.284 million vehicles in 2024Q2, -5.0% YoY, +3.3%, of which overseas sales volume was 0.109 million units, +51.1% YoY, +17.2% month-on-month, overseas sales accounted for 38.2%, +14.2pct YoY, +4.5pct month-on-month; NEV sales volume was 0.073 million vehicles, +11.9% YoY, +23.7% month-on-month. New energy passenger vehicle sales accounted for 31.0%, 4.4pct YoY, +5.5pct month-on-month. Benefiting from the year-on-year increase in overseas and tank sales, the company achieved revenue of 48.57 billion yuan in Q2, +18.7% year-on-year, and +13.3% month-on-month, corresponding bicycle revenue of 0.171 million yuan, +0.034 million yuan year-on-year, and +0.015 million yuan month-on-month.
The increase in the share of overseas and high-value models has greatly boosted bicycle profits. Net profit to mother exceeds the forecast center. The 2024Q2 bicycle profit is expected to reach 0.014 million yuan. Benefiting from the continued increase in exports and the share of high-value tank brand sales, the company's Q2 gross profit margin was 21.4%, +4.0pct year over year, and +1.3pct month-on-month. On the cost side, the company's expense ratio during Q2 was 10.4%, -0.7 pct. In summary, the company achieved net profit of 3.85 billion yuan in Q2, surpassing the previous forecast center (forecast center of 3.67 billion yuan), +224.4% year-on-year, +19.3% month-on-month, corresponding to a net profit of 0.014 million yuan for bicycles, +0.01 million yuan year-on-year, and +0.002 million yuan month-on-month.
The company accelerates its global layout, resolves the transformation of new energy sources, and actively transforms and innovates, and is expected to continue to boost both sales and performance.
1) On the domestic side, the Great Wall has fully adjusted the three dimensions of product, channel, and supply chain. The company is steadfastly deepening the transformation of new energy sources. The product focus is on plugging into the hybrid circuit. New cars are clearly positioned to accelerate the launch of smart new energy products. Various new cars from various brands such as Haval, Tank, WEY, Euler, and Pickup are expected to contribute significant increases in the future. 2) In terms of going overseas, the company's “ONE GWM” strategy has accelerated overseas. The overseas market has covered more than 170 countries and regions, and there are more than 1,000 overseas sales channels. While export sales continue to grow, the Rayong plant in Thailand has mass-produced various models, and the Brazilian project is also progressing steadily, which will accelerate the company's sales growth in the future. 3) In the era of intelligence, data and algorithms are the core of competition. Great Wall Motor actively promotes sales volume and intelligent model development, and the strength of intelligence is expected to continue to strengthen in the future.
Investment advice: In the short to medium term, the company's accelerated overseas expansion combined with the increase in the share of high-value models such as domestic tanks is expected to drive the company's sales and performance growth. In the long run, the company's four major expansion strategies will open up room for long-term sales growth, and intelligent transformation will open up profit space for the entire industry chain. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 13.03, 16.26, and 17.97 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding A-share PE is 15.2X, 12.2X, and 11.0X, respectively, and the corresponding Hong Kong PE is 6.7X, 5.4X, and 4.9X, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. Industry price wars weaken corporate profits; 2. Global economic recovery falls short of expectations.