On the evening of today, Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH) announced the listing prices of its products for September 2024, with the prices of multiple rare earth products increasing by nearly 5% compared to the previous month, ending the consecutive flat listing trend seen in July and August. It is worth mentioning that this is also the second 'high listing' for Northern Rare Earth this year, with the previous 'high listing' occurring in May.

Specifically, in September, the listing prices of praseodymium neodymium oxide and neodymium oxide were raised by 0.0184 million yuan/ton compared to August, while the listing prices of praseodymium neodymium metal and neodymium metal were raised by 0.022 million yuan/ton compared to August. In addition, the listing prices for lanthanum oxide and cerium oxide remained unchanged.

Specifically, praseodymium neodymium oxide is quoted at 0.4032 million yuan/ton, up 4.78% from August; neodymium oxide is quoted at 0.4116 million yuan/ton, up 4.68% from August; praseodymium neodymium metal is quoted at 0.5 million yuan/ton, up 4.6% from August; neodymium metal is quoted at 0.51 million yuan/ton, up 4.51% from August.

However, several industry analysts told Caixin that the 'high listing' in September was within expectations, and the nearly 5% increase is not 'amazing,' even lower than the current spot market price by more than 0.01 million yuan/ton.

Yang Jiawen, a Rare Earth analyst at Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), told Caixin reporters that on the day Northern Rare Earth announced its listing price for September, in the spot market, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide had reached 0.418 million yuan/ton, with the actual transaction price at 0.415 million yuan/ton; the price of neodymium metal had reached 0.513 million yuan/ton, with the actual transaction price at 0.51 million yuan/ton.

"In the short term, the future price of rare earths is expected to stabilize, but a greater possibility exists of a slowdown in growth." Wei Kaili, a Rare Earth analyst at Fubao Information, told Caixin reporters, expecting this wave of rare earth price increases to reach around 0.44 million yuan/ton.

Cailian News on September 2 (Reporter Wang Bin) - After a gap of nearly 4 months, praseodymium neodymium oxide once again exceeded the 0.4 million yuan/ton mark. Coupled with the slower growth of the second batch of rare earth indicators this year, the rare earth industry is regaining confidence.

An anonymous industry insider analyzed to reporters, "The list price of China Northern Rare Earth in September has been significantly adjusted for various reasons. The second batch of rare earth indicators this year continue to slow down, with growth rate lower than market expectations, and the rare earth supply-demand situation is expected to improve; Currently, downstream demand is entering the peak season of 'Golden September and Silver October,' and the price of rare earth raw materials is rising; In the early stage, market demand was weak, and companies did not build up inventory; Combined with the price increase demand from rare earth groups, as well as the influx of external funds into the market, multiple factors have contributed to this wave of market trends."

Yang Jiawen said that the peak season market trend has emerged ahead of schedule this year, and there has been a response in the market since late August. From the perspective of magnetic material factory orders, there is currently a polarization phenomenon, that is, most of the orders are mainly going to large factories, and the situation of orders for small factories has not improved significantly. Wei Kaili also mentioned that the market orders have shown a certain degree of recovery now, mainly due to the expectation of increased demand for rare earth permanent magnets driven by the consumption of new energy vehicles and the replacement of old home appliances.

It is worth mentioning that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources recently issued the total control indicators for the second batch of rare earth mining, smelting, and separation in 2024. The total control indicators for the first two batches of rare earth mining, smelting, and separation this year were 0.27 million tons and 0.254 million tons respectively. The increase in the mining indicators for the first two batches was only 5.9% year-on-year, and all of the increase was in light rare earths. In contrast, the year-on-year growth rate of rare earth mining indicators for the whole of last year was 21.4%.

Galaxy Securities stated in its research report released on August 25 that assuming that the third batch of rare earth indicators will not be issued this year, the growth rate of domestic rare earth mine supply will be 6%. According to its forecast, the global supply growth rate of rare earths in 2024 will be 5%, while the demand growth rate for lanthanum-neodymium oxide will be 9%, higher than the supply growth rate of rare earths. Therefore, the supply-demand situation of rare earths is expected to improve, and the price of rare earths is expected to bottom out and rebound.

The prices of major rare earth products published by the China Rare Earth Industry Association show that on September 2, the average price of rare earth oxide lanthanum-neodymium was 4.16 million yuan/ton, the average price of terbium oxide was 5.375 million yuan/ton, and the average price of dysprosium oxide was 1.725 million yuan/ton, representing cumulative declines of 62.52%, 64.87%, and 45.32%, respectively, from the peak in February 2022.