Entering September, the biggest event in the digital industry is the annual Autumn New Product Launch. $Apple (AAPL.US)$ At 1am on September 10th Beijing time, Apple will hold its Autumn 2024 product launch event. The theme of this event is "It's Glowtime," during which they will unveil the iPhone 16, the new Apple Watch, and possibly the new AirPods.

I believe that many mooers are not only concerned about Apple's new products, but also whether the iPhone 16 series will stimulate Apple's stock price in the short and medium term.

Usually, before the new iPhone launch event, various leaks and rumors will sweep the market, and investors may buy stocks in advance, hoping that the new iPhone will drive a wave of price increases.

Taking history as a reference: How has Apple's stock price performed after the release of new phones?

Although historical data cannot predict the future, it still has a certain reference value in the financial industry.

""北京时间9月10日凌晨1点，苹果将召开2024年秋季发布会，本次发布会的主题为“高光时刻(It's Glowtime)”，届时将发布iPhone 16、新款Apple Watch以及可能推出的新款AirPods。 相信很多牛友们除了关心苹果的新品之外，也很关心iPhone 16系列会否在短、中期刺激苹果股价？ 通常情况下，新款iPhone发布会前夕，各种剧透和小道消息会席卷市场，投资者可能会提前买入股票，期待新款iPhone能够推动股价迎来一波上涨。 以史为鉴：苹果新机发布后股价怎么走？ 虽然历史数据不能预示未来，但是在金融市场仍具备一定的参考性。

Futu News has compiled the performance of Apple's stock price since 2010 in relation to the release of new products. From this, we can see that after the release of the new iPhone each year, the stock price usually drops first and then rises.

In the years when the stock price usually drops, the new iPhone is often criticized for lacking innovation, dragging down the stock price. For example, when the iPhone XR was released, it was criticized for being just an affordable version of the iPhone, causing Apple fans to lack motivation to upgrade.

According to the chart below, the stock price generally drops on the day of the release event. Since the launch of the iPhone 4, Apple's stock price has dropped on the release day by over 70%.

Because after the release event, market expectations are released, which causes the stock price to drop. There will be various criticisms in the market, such as the iPhone being too expensive, screen issues, design problems, and so on. This phenomenon has occurred every year in the past decade, leading to a brief decline in Apple's stock price.

However, in the 60 days after the release event, the stock price rose in 10 out of 14 instances, with the highest increase reaching 20%. This is because the market will find that despite the loud criticisms, people still continue to buy the new iPhone.

If investors assess the situation after the release event and act within 60 days, buying Apple stock before November can have a winning opportunity of up to 70%. Furthermore, holding the stock until December and January, the traditional peak sales season in the United States, may further stimulate the upward trend of consumer stocks like Apple.

Typically, from Halloween to Christmas is the peak season for consumer spending. Investors generally believe that iPhone shipments will benefit from the end-of-year consumer season. If demand is strong, a wave of increase in stock prices is expected before the year-end market trends.

Currently, Cisco, Fujitsu, LM Ericsson Telephone, Nokia Oyj, HPE, NEC, Juniper Networks, Ciena, Volkswagen, and Western Digital are in the project. In addition, there are several larger projects underway: 1) Amazon Inferentia ASIC, expected to launch in 2025; 2) Microsoft Maia, expected to launch in 2026.From the distribution of Apple's options open interest,Apple's options trading is active. Looking at the open interest expiring in the week of the conference (September 13), a large amount of CALL options have accumulated at the $235 strike price, which may be a significant resistance level, while the PUT options are relatively few.

Is it the right time to buy Apple? How do Wall Street analysts view it?

The market expects the focus of this conference to be on Apple Intelligence (AI). This AI tool will be integrated into all new iPhones.

With the upcoming release of iPhone 16, Citigroup analysts consider Apple's stocks as the "AI top pick" for 2025, surpassing Nvidia and network equipment manufacturer Arista. The institution believes that the AI industry has entered the infrastructure phase and is about to enter the final stage - the era of devices. With the launch of "Apple Intelligence", Apple will shine in the era of AI devices.

Citigroup analysts expect that how the hardware upgrade of iPhone 16 will better support AI functions will become a highlight of the conference. Analysts wrote in the research report:

Apple's September new product launches usually focus on hardware upgrades, but we believe the company will emphasize how the hardware updates of the iPhone 16 series will better support Apple Intelligence functions, which are expected to be officially launched later this fall.

Not only for the iPhone 16, Citigroup believes that AI features will further be the focus of upgrades for the iPhone 17 next year. The institution predicts that the shipments of iPhone 16/iPhone 17 in 2024 and 2025 will be 85 million and 92 million units respectively, with total shipments of 0.228 billion and 241 million units.

Coincidentally, Morgan Stanley also continues to see Apple as a preferred stock and believes that the product cycle of the new iPhone has a positive impact on the company's performance.

The bank believes that this press conference will focus on the Apple Intelligence that will be integrated into the iPhone 16. To achieve AI functionality, the iPhone may increase its DRAM capacity, and the SoC performance will also be greatly upgraded. At the same time, the bank also stated that the pricing and battery life of the iPhone will be important details to pay attention to.

According to the morgan stanley analyst, the introduction of Apple Intelligence in the iPhone 16 will help unleash pent-up demand and accelerate the replacement cycle of the iPhone, which is currently at a historically high 4.8 years. This may also support apple's additional iPhone production orders in the next 3 to 12 months.

Financial firm Wedbush also has high expectations for the current iPhone upgrade cycle, with analysts at the firm stating that this launch event will kick off the "largest upgrade cycle" in Apple's history.

Wedbush analyst believes that with the upcoming release of Apple Intelligence, Apple may become the 'gatekeeper' of the consumer AI revolution. The institution currently expects the initial shipment volume of iPhone 16 to exceed 90 million units, surpassing the market's expectations of between 80 million and 84 million units, marking double-digit growth year-on-year.

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Mooers,

Do you bullish on iPhone 16?

Will you buy Apple phones or Apple stocks?

Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section~

Editor/Somer