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汽车股表现分化!8月销量放榜,造车新势力表现各异

Auto stocks show differentiation! Sales rankings for August are out, and the performance of new car-making forces varies.

港股解碼 ·  Sep 2 18:54

Source: Hong Kong Stock Code Following the 1-for-10 stock split, the stock price of the chip giant has skyrocketed. Wall Street seems to regard the concept of AI stocks split as a bullish news. Under the impetus of the AI wave, many AI semiconductor stocks have experienced considerable upward trend. After the split, the price per trading unit of 10-30 billion yuan products operating income was more affordable, allowing more retail investors to participate and adding fuel to the rise. Nvidia has already split its shares, and semiconductor stocks will also split in mid-July. Broadcom's Ethernet network conversion and AI accelerator for super large-scale customers are the main driving force for its AI revenue. The company expects this revenue to reach $11 billion in fiscal year 2024. Its second quarter performance ending on May 5, 2024, which was released not long ago, exceeded expectations, with a record quarterly revenue of $12.49 billion, of which related revenue from AI products reached $3.1 billion, accounting for 24.82% of its total revenue, close to Broadcom's AI product revenue target set for fiscal year 2024-25% of its total revenue. In the fiscal year 2023, the generative AI only accounted for 15% of Broadcom's semiconductor business revenue. Driven by this, the stock price of Broadcom has recently surged, with a cumulative increase of 62.17% since the beginning of this year. After less than five trading days since the release of the quarterly results on June 12, the stock price of Broadcom has increased by 20.53%. Myth of stock split is fulfilled. However, compared with Broadcom's approach of using stock split to reach a wider range of investors, wafer manufacturer with a stock price of $179.69 per share has been silently rising. Since the beginning of this year, TSMC has accumulated a rise of 74.03%, with a market value of US$ 931.9 billion, approaching trillion! Compared with Broadcom's market value of US$ 839.1 billion, it is higher by nearly 100 billion, and has surpassed the world's highest market value pharmaceutical company due to the concept of weight loss drugs, whose stock price has risen by 53.46% this year, and its market value has reached US$ 847.2 billion. What are the advantages of TSMC? If Nvidia's advantage is to seize the investment opportunity of generative AI, and become the builder of AI layout for major technology giants and sci-tech companies, then TSMC's advantage is even stronger than Nvidia's, because it is not only the foundry of Nvidia's most advanced AI chips, but also its main supplier and competitor. When customers place orders with the three major chip companies, these orders usually fall on TSMC, because TSMC has the most advanced process mass production capacity. Even though Intel is ambitiously developing the foundry industry, its capacity still lags behind TSMC. H100 needs to rely on TSMC's 5-nanometer capacity, and Nvidia's AI chip upgrade version H200/B100 uses TSMC's 4-nanometer and 3-nanometer process, making TSMC's capacity full at once. As shown in the figure below, TSMC's revenue has risen sharply in these two years. Although Intel's CEO Gelsinger, who has returned, is ambitiously trying to catch up with TSMC within four years by surpassing five nodes, but in terms of current technology and capacity, TSMC still has overwhelming advantages. Intel's challenge to Nvidia and the AI chip Gaudi 3 it released uses 5-nanometer technology, which obviously still needs to rely on TSMC's foundry. In addition, it is reported that TSMC recently won orders for Intel's upcoming notebook PC processor series 3-nanometer chips, and continues to dominate the three major chip companies. TSMC Chairman and CEO Wei Zhejia mentioned at the Q1 2024 earnings conference that as an important power for AI applications, TSMC will benefit from the strong demand for AI. He pointed out that almost all AI innovators are now cooperating with TSMC, and it is expected that revenue from AI accelerators will contribute to more than double this year, accounting for around 10% of its total annual revenue. He expects these revenues to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 50% in the next five years, and their share of total revenue will exceed 20% by 2028. Therefore, TSMC will be the biggest beneficiary in the AI development wave, and it is not limited to whether Nvidia is successful. The more competitive AMD, Intel, and Nvidia are, the less impact it will have on TSMC, because the more advanced the required production technology, the more TSMC can demonstrate its technical advantages.

On September 2nd, the auto sector showed differentiated performance.

At the close,$LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK)$Rose sharply by 5.57%.$BRILLIANCE CHI (01114.HK)$,$DONGFENG GROUP (00489.HK)$Up 3.38% and 1.43% respectively. While$GAC GROUP (02238.HK)$,$NIO-SW (09866.HK)$they dropped significantly by 5.62% and 4.91%, respectively.$GWMOTOR (02333.HK)$,$LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$The respective declines of chongqing sokon industry group stock and brilliance chi were 4.99% and 4.57%.

From the news perspective, today's auto sector shows a clear differentiation trend, which may be related to the August sales data disclosed by them the previous day (August 1). Overall, some people are happy, some are worried.

In terms of new energy vehicles, li auto inc saw a slight month-on-month decline in August, but still ranked first in the new energy sector with a delivery volume of over 0.048 million vehicles, delivering 48,122 new cars, a year-on-year increase of 37.83%. From January to August, the cumulative delivery reached 288,103 vehicles, an accumulated year-on-year increase of 38.4%.

Among them, the high-value li auto inc L6 model has contributed significantly, with sales exceeding 0.02 million units for three consecutive months, accounting for nearly half of the total monthly sales. However, due to the low selling price of the L6 (priced at 0.2498-0.2798 million yuan), it also lowered the average selling price of li auto vehicles and caused the gross margin of li auto vehicles to drop from 19.3% in the first quarter to 18.7% in the second quarter.

Leapmotor continues to make strong efforts, with deliveries exceeding 0.03 million vehicles for the first time in August, reaching 30,305 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 113.57% and a month-on-month increase of 37.17%, marking a continuous 16-month year-on-year growth.

In August, nio inc delivered 20,176 new cars, exceeding 0.02 million units for 4 consecutive months, a year-on-year increase of 4.38%, but a month-on-month decline of 1.57%.

Xpeng's performance remained mediocre, delivering 14,036 new cars in August, despite a month-on-month increase of 25.94%, but still significantly lagging behind the above three companies in terms of delivery volume.

Currently, Xpeng's new model Xpeng MONA M03 is highly anticipated. It is understood that the Xpeng MONA M03, launched on August 27 (priced at 0.1198 million yuan to 0.1558 million yuan), secured more than 30,000 orders within 48 hours of its launch, with market predictions indicating a potential boost to Xpeng's overall delivery volume.

As for NIO, it continues to rank last, with 11,005 deliveries in August, a decrease of 9.07% year-on-year and a decrease of 0.09% month-on-month; The cumulative sales volume from January to August decreased by 10.37% year-on-year to 75,790 vehicles. This may reflect that NIO still faces significant market competition pressure.

In addition to emerging electric vehicle brands, the sales volumes of several other well-known electric vehicle brands were also announced in August.

Among them,$BYD Company Limited (002594.SZ)$As the leader in the automotive industry, Tesla once again surpassed all competitors, selling 0.3731 million vehicles in August, with sales exceeding 0.3 million vehicles for six consecutive months, an increase of 35.97% year-on-year.$Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation (600617.SH)$

$Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock (601127.SH)$8月新能源汽车销量达36181辆,同比暴增479.55%。而广汽埃安受价格战持续、纯电动车市场增速放缓等因素,销量继续滑坡,8月全球销量35355辆,与上月基本持平,但同比出现了下滑。

此外,深蓝汽车、$ZEEKR (ZK.US)$汽车、岚图汽车也都公布了8月交付数据。其中,深蓝交付20131辆,同比增长36.61%,环比增长20.39%。极氪8月销售18015辆,同比增长46.43%,环比增长15.08%。岚图8月交付6156辆,同比增长53.55%,环比增长2.34%。

小米汽车亦宣布8月交付量超0.01 million辆,已连续3个月达成破万交付目标。小米汽车预计,将在11月提前完成全年0.1 million辆交付目标。

综合而言,8月,整个新能源行业继续呈现出火热态势,这主要得益于行业新产品放量,以及自8月以来,多地跟进新一轮汽车“以旧换新”补贴,提高了地方购车补贴的力度等多方因素共同作用。因此,即使是淡季,多家新能源车企仍然取得了还算不错的成绩。

Dongguan Securities stated that with the recent expansion of the old-for-new subsidy policy, the application volume for subsidies has grown rapidly, stimulating the potential for consumer consumption in the automobile market. The continued advancement of the 'vehicle-road-cloud' integration layout, combined with multiple auto manufacturers' continuous updates of intelligent driving models, further promotes the development of vehicle intelligence. The Chengdu Auto Show opening will see the launch of multiple models, continuing the trend of automobile electrification and intelligence.

Editor / jayden

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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