Introduction to this report:
2024H1's performance is in line with expectations, benefiting from the increase in scale and the release of operating leverage, and a significant increase in net interest rates; the efficiency of domestic single-store stores has steadily improved, and the room for growth in opening stores has doubled; and the overseas layout is in line with international luxury brands, and there is plenty of room.
Key points of investment:
The performance was in line with expectations, and the rating was “increased”. Considering that the increase in scale drives the release of operating leverage, the increase is estimated that the company's net profit due to FY2024-2026 will be 1.107/1.509/1.921 billion yuan (original value 1.003/1.452/1.909 billion yuan), respectively. The company is positioned at the high-end, enjoys obvious brand premiums and user reviews, and has strong growth rates in single-store sales growth and store expansion. Growth room can be expected. It gave 16.2x PE in FY2024, raised the target price to HK$116.75 (original value HK$103.37), and maintained a “gain” rating.
Performance summary: The first half of 2024 achieved revenue of 3.52 billion yuan/yoy +148.3%, gross profit of 0.591 billion yuan/yoy +146.4%, and net profit of 0.588 billion yuan/yoy +198.8%.
Performance is in line with expectations, and multiple product+channels+brand efforts drive high growth. The company's performance achieved rapid growth in the first half of 2024, mainly due to: ① the expansion of brand influence, which drives the overall revenue growth of online and offline stores; ② continuous product optimization, promotion, and iteration to promote continuous revenue growth; ③ changes in market consumption concepts and upgrading consumption concepts, and consumers prefer high-quality ancient gold products with more prominent classical cultural content and product value; ④ Compared with the same period in 23, 6 new stores were added and 1 store was expanded, generating incremental revenue contributions. Looking at the split business: ① store revenue 3.129 billion yuan/ +149.6%, online platform revenue 0.391 billion yuan/ +138.9%, channel revenue is stable; ② pure gold gold revenue 1.372 billion yuan/ +110.15%, pure gold mosaic revenue 2.147 billion yuan/ +182.14%, other business revenue 1.365 million yuan/ -63.23%, and the share of pure gold inlay revenue increased from 53.7% in 2023H1 61% of 2024H1.
The release of operating leverage has driven a significant increase in net interest rates, and domestic expansion and brand expansion are worth looking forward to. 2024H1's gross profit margin was 41.33% /-0.33pct, net profit margin 16.70% /+2.82pct, period expense ratio 18.84%/-3.91 pct, and sales/management/R&D expense ratios changed year-on-year by -2.51pct/-1.25pct/-0.14pct to 15.12%/3.54%/0.19%, respectively. The net interest rate has increased significantly, mainly benefiting from the increase in scale and the release of operating leverage, and the fee ratio has been significantly optimized. In the medium term, the efficiency of domestic single stores is steadily improving, stores continue to expand, and the brand potential increases the penetration rate of high-net-worth people, which is expected to support the continued expansion of domestic business; focus on the internationalization process of brands over a long period of time, target the global channel layout of international luxury brands such as Cartier, and there is plenty of room to go overseas.
Risk warning: Fluctuations in gold prices and the impact of the external economic environment, increased risk of market competition, etc.