收益水平：1）24H1 客公里客运收益（含燃油附加费）0.50 元，同比-9.8%，较19 年同期+5.4%，座公里收益0.42 元，同比-1.1%，较19 年+5.9%。2）24Q2客公里客运收益0.48 元，同比-11.2%，较19 年同期+6.4%，座公里收益0.40元，同比-3.9%，较19 年+7.4%。The company announced its 2024 mid-year report: 1) 2024H1: revenue of 84.79 billion, +18.0% year over year, loss 1.23 billion (23H1 loss 2.88 billion); loss after deduction of 3.46 billion (23H1 loss of 3.96 billion yuan); RMB depreciated 0.6% in the first half of the year, and exchange loss 0.46 billion. 2) 2024Q2: Revenue of 40.19 billion, +6.4% YoY, +13.8% over 2019, loss 1.98 billion (23Q2 loss 0.98 billion), non-post-deducted loss of 4.01 billion (23Q2 loss 1.8 billion), RMB depreciated 0.4% in Q2, and exchange loss 0.39 billion. 3) Other revenue: 24H1 achieved other income of 1.68 billion yuan, +16.3% year over year; 24Q2 achieved other income of 0.91 billion yuan, +36.8% year over year. 4) Investment income: Net investment income for the first half of the year was -1.02 billion, which confirmed the investment loss of 1.385 billion by Sichuan Airlines during the reporting period.
Operating data: 1) 2024H1: ASK +21.7% YoY, +5.6% YoY, RPK +33.5% YoY, +6.1% YoY, +6.1% YoY, occupancy rate 83.1%, +7.3pct YoY, +0.4pct YoY. 2) 2024Q2:
ASK +11.2% year over year, +3.9% year on year, RPK + 20.3% year on year, +4.9% year on year 19, occupancy rate 83.2%, +6.3 pct year over year, +0.8 pct year over year 19.
Revenue level: 1) 24H1 passenger kilometer revenue (including fuel surcharges) was 0.50 yuan, -9.8% year-on-year, +5.4% over the same period in '19, and 0.42 yuan per seat kilometer, -1.1% year-on-year, and +5.9% compared to '19. 2) 24Q2 passenger kilometer passenger revenue was 0.48 yuan, -11.2% year on year, +6.4% over the same period in '19, and seat kilometer revenue was 0.40 yuan, -3.9% year on year, and +7.4% compared to '19.
Costs and expenses: 1) 24H1 operating costs 78.6 billion, +17.4% year-on-year. The cost of aviation fuel was 29.7 billion, an increase of 18.2% over the previous year. Domestic oil prices and comprehensive production costs were +0.8% year-on-year during the period. The cost of withholding oil was 50.7 billion, +14.9% year-on-year.
The cost of a seat kilometer was 0.45 yuan, -3.5% year over year, an increase of 15.4% over 2019; the cost of withholding fuel per kilometer was 0.289 yuan, -5.6% year over year, +9.5%. 2) 24Q2 operating costs 38.8 billion, +15.5% YoY. Aviation fuel cost 13.4 billion, up 16.0% year over year. The cost of withholding oil was 25.4 billion, +13.8% year-on-year. The cost of seat-kilometer was 0.45 yuan, +3.9% year-on-year, up 14.5% from '19; the cost of withholding fuel per kilometer was 0.296 yuan, +2.3% year-on-year, +10.1% compared to '19. 3) Expenses: The total of 24H1's three fees (deduction) was 8.17 billion, +7.7% year-on-year, with a deduction rate of 9.6%; 24Q2 total three fees (deduction) was 4.08 billion, -0.8% YoY, with a deduction rate of 10.2%; (Note: R&D expenses not included).
Supply and demand in the industry improve during the peak season, and airline profits are expected to be realized. The number of civil aviation passengers increased significantly during the peak summer travel season. According to CADAS data, since the summer travel season (7.1-8.29), the average domestic passenger volume of civil aviation was 2.06 million, an increase of 8% over the previous year, surpassing about 23% in 2019. The number of passengers increased significantly during the peak season; the average passenger occupancy rate was 86%, an increase of 4.5 pts over the previous year, an increase of 1.1 pts over 2019. The average full fare (including oil) in the domestic civil aviation market was 929 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, surpassing about 3% in 2019.
Investment suggestions: 1) Profit forecast: Considering the domestic macroeconomic background, oil price level, international flight recovery progress, and the investment situation of Sichuan Airlines, we adjusted the 24-26 profit forecast to the expected net profit of 0.5, 7.8, and 10 billion yuan, respectively (the original forecast was profit of 3.9, 8.5, and 12.2 billion). The corresponding EPS for 24-26 was 0.03, 0.43, and 0.55 yuan, respectively, and the 24-26 PE was 213, 13, and 10 times, respectively. 2) Considering that international flights are still recovering for 24 years, we referred to the historical valuation center from 2010 to 2019 and gave a 25-year profit of 15 times PE, corresponding to a market capitalization of 116.4 billion and a target price of 6.42 yuan. The expected space is 13% higher than the current rate, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: The economy has declined sharply, oil prices have risen sharply, and the exchange rate has depreciated sharply.
