收益水平：1）24H1 客公里客运收益（含燃油附加费）0.507 元，同比-13.0%，较19 年同期+2.9%，座公里收益0.411 元，同比-1.5%，较19 年+1.1%。2）24Q2 客公里客运收益0.496 元，同比-13.9%，较19 年同期+1.9%，座公里收益0.406 元，同比-3.1%，较19 年+0.6%。Company Announces 2024 Semi-Annual Report:
Financial data: 1) 2024H1: revenue of 64.2 billion, +29.7% year over year; loss of 2.77 billion in the first half of the year, +55.8% year over year; after deducting non-loss of 2.97 billion, +55.6% year on year; RMB depreciated 0.6% in the first half of the year, and exchange loss 0.38 billion. 2) 2024Q2: Revenue of 31.01 billion, +13.9% YoY, +7.9% YoY; Q2 loss 1.97 billion, +18.7% YoY, after deducting non-loss of 2 billion, +27.1% YoY; Q2 RMB depreciated 0.4%, estimated exchange loss of 0.29 billion. 3) Other revenue: 24H1 achieved other revenue of 2.95 billion yuan, +18.1% YoY; 24Q2 achieved other revenue of 1.58 billion yuan, +1.5% YoY.
Operating data: 1) 24H1: ASK +32.8% YoY, +9.7% YoY, RPK +50.3% YoY, +7.8% YoY, +7.8% YoY, 81.2% occupancy rate, +9.4pct YoY, and -1.5pct YoY. 2) 24Q2: ASK +17.4% YoY, +8.2% YoY, RPK +32.1% YoY, +6.9% YoY, +6.9% YoY, 81.8% Guest Occupancy Rate, +9.1pct YoY, +1.0pct YoY.
Revenue level: 1) 24H1 passenger kilometer revenue (including fuel surcharges) was 0.507 yuan, -13.0% year over year, +2.9% over the same period in '19, seat kilometer revenue of 0.411 yuan, -1.5% year-on-year, and +1.1% compared to '19. 2) 24Q2 passenger kilometer passenger revenue was 0.496 yuan, -13.9% year-on-year, +1.9% over the same period in '19, and seat kilometer revenue was 0.406 yuan, -3.1% year-on-year, and +0.6% compared to '19.
Costs and expenses: 1) The operating cost of 24H1 was 62.5 billion, +23.1% year-on-year, of which aviation fuel cost was 23.3 billion yuan, +33.6% year-on-year, and domestic oil price comprehensive production costs were +0.8% year-on-year. Depreciation costs were 11.28 billion, +8.1% year on year; employee compensation costs were 10.54 billion, +15.5% year over year; airport take-off and landing fees were 8.24 billion, +23.3% year over year.
The cost of withholding oil was 39.2 billion, +17.6% year-on-year. The cost of seat-kilometer was 0.433 yuan, -7.3% year-on-year, +9.0% compared to '19; the cost of withholding fuel per kilometer was 0.272 yuan, -11.5% year-on-year, +0.3% compared to '19. 2) The operating cost of 24Q2 was 30.8 billion yuan, +15.9% year over year. The estimated fuel cost was 11.3 billion yuan, +24.7% year over year, the seat kilometer cost was 0.433 yuan, -1.3% year over year, +7.7% compared to 19 years, and 0.275 yuan per seat kilometer, -5.2% year over year, +1.6% year over year. 3) Fee: The total of the three 24H1 fees (deduction) was 7.13 billion, +8.1% year-on-year, and the deduction rate was 11.1%. The total amount of the Q2 deduction fee was 3.59 billion, +8.3% compared to the same period, and the deduction rate was 11.6% (note: R&D expenses not included).
Supply and demand in the industry improve during the peak season, and airline profits are expected to be realized. The number of civil aviation passengers increased significantly during the peak summer travel season. According to CADAS data, since the summer travel season (7.1-8.29), the average domestic passenger volume of civil aviation was 2.06 million, an increase of 8% over the previous year, surpassing about 23% in 2019. The number of passengers increased significantly during the peak season; the average passenger occupancy rate was 86%, an increase of 4.5 pts over the previous year, an increase of 1.1 pts over 2019. The average full fare (including oil) in the domestic civil aviation market was 929 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, surpassing about 3% in 2019.
Investment suggestions: 1) Profit forecast: Considering the domestic macro background, oil price level, and international recovery progress, we adjusted the 24-26 profit forecast to the expected net profit of 0.021, 5.9, and 8.5 billion (the original forecast was 2.9, 6.8, and 11.4 billion), respectively. The corresponding EPS for 24-26 was 0.00, 0.26, and 0.38 yuan, respectively, and the 24-26 PE was 3866, 14, and 10 times, respectively. 2) Target price: Considering the airline's loss after 2020, there was no substantial change in the apparent net assets of the airline, but there was no substantial change in the value of the airline's core asset fleet, aviation network, and crew. Therefore, we applied 1.5 times PB based on the company's net assets at the end of 2019, referring to the historical average PB level, corresponding to a target market value of 100.1 billion yuan and a target price of 4.49 yuan, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: The economy has declined sharply, oil prices have risen sharply, and the exchange rate has depreciated sharply.
