Bitcoin spot ETFs are like a double-edged sword. Keep an eye on everyone's pockets. Spot ETFs overdrafted Bitcoin's gains ahead of time, but in the face of insufficient liquidity during the interest rate hike cycle, Bitcoin sucks a lot. Altcoins have not performed very well, but there are quite a few cases where they fall.
Moreover, with the adoption of ETFs, Bitcoin has no new narratives, including the lack of new narratives in the entire circle. As a result, the entire cryptocurrency is now completely dependent on US stocks and the US market. Recently, the main trading hours in the US market have not performed well. The ETF data on Friday was particularly poor. The main player BlackRock was also 0. Thankfully, BlackRock did not come out.
September is a very important month. The historical rule is that interest rates rise before interest rates are cut, then the bull market starts after the pullback, so in September it rises first and then pullback, ending the fluctuation of more than half a year. After surviving September, we won.
If according to previous market conditions, Bitcoin's halving in '16 and '20 began to revive the bull market in 163 days, then now we have experienced 134 days, and it's not much more than a month, that is, after September, the bull market will awaken in October.
Will interest rate cuts really push up the price of Bitcoin?
As far as cryptocurrency investors are concerned about the Fed's interest rate cut, the fundamental relationship is whether this interest rate cut can push up the price of Bitcoin! History tells us that the Fed's interest rate cuts are often beneficial to Bitcoin. This is because interest rate cuts reduce capital costs, and investors prefer to place their money in high-risk and high-return places, such as Bitcoin. Well, if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, Xiaobian believes that it may help several aspects of Bitcoin:
Stimulate investment: In an environment with low interest rates, investors will look for higher returns, which may drive the price of Bitcoin higher.
Improving market sentiment: Interest rate cuts send a signal that the Federal Reserve is actively stimulating the economy, and investors may be more willing to take risks and invest in Bitcoin as a result.
Highlight Bitcoin's anti-inflation characteristics: When interest rate cuts cause returns on traditional safe-haven assets such as gold to decline, Bitcoin's anti-inflation characteristics may become more prominent, attracting more investors to buy.
Increase market liquidity: Monetary policy easing brought about by interest rate cuts has made the market have more money, and investors can enter the market more easily, thereby boosting the price of Bitcoin.
Summary:
August will pass, and the monthly outlook will close. The general market correction is almost in this position. My personal prediction for September is the following two points. First, if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, global capital flows back, and the industry recovers, cryptocurrencies will also start a bull market. Second, if the Federal Reserve continues to maintain high interest rates in September, then the general market will continue to fluctuate sharply in September until October, so regardless of whether the Fed cuts interest rates or maintains high interest rates, this year's bull market will not be affected. Those with chips in their hands can stay steady, and those that are still waiting to bottom out can slowly open positions at low prices.